No NFL team is perfect, no matter how great they may be. The 1972 Dolphins, the only team in NFL history to put up a perfect season from start to finish, lived in an era where they didn’t need much in the way of quarterback performance. So, they could deal with the broken leg and dislocated ankle that cost quarterback Bob Griese eight games in the regular season. The 2007 Patriots, who came within one game of joining the 1972 Miami team with a perfect season, found it more and more difficult to pace themselves through a defensive regression that started with linebacker Rosevelt Colvin’s foot injury in late November.
So, if even the greatest teams in NFL history have potentially fatal flaws, what does that say about the eight wild-card entrants in the 2019 postseason? It says that, for each of those teams, they’ll have to overcome the things that could upend them from the first round on, hoping that the things that make them great are more present at the most opportune moments.
Here are the most obvious flaws for each of those teams as we head into wild-card weekend.
Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen’s ceiling
The Bills have an exciting run game with veteran Frank Gore, rookie Devin Singletary, and quarterback Josh Allen. They have perhaps the strongest defense from front to back in this particular wild-card group. They have Tre’Davious White, the only cornerback this season to pick off six passes without allowing a touchdown. Were it not for the relatively low ceiling Allen brings as a passer, they might be the most formidable team in the 2019 postseason. But Allen’s low ceiling is there, and it might be a problem.
Allen has been reasonably efficient. He’s thrown just three interceptions this season since his three-interception meltdown against the Patriots in Week 4, so at least he’s learned to minimize the damage to his own offense. And he does have 17 touchdown passes in that time period, so productive plays are a possibility — especially in concert with John Brown, who may be the NFL’s most underrated receiver. And certainly, Allen’s two-touchdown game against New England in Week 16 was a nice summary of his growth as a passer this season. But if the Bills wind up in a one- or two-touchdown hole in the playoffs, can Allen turn it loose effectively enough to mount a comeback? For a guy with a big arm, he’s been relatively quiet on bog downfield plays — just 18 completions on 68 attempts for 589 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions on passes of 20 or more air yards this season. And he’s not been terribly efficient under pressure this season, with a 41.2% completion rate and five touchdowns to four interceptions when his dropbacks have been disrupted.
Perhaps the 2019 playoffs is when Allen hits the proverbial next level. If that’s the case, the Bills instantly become as tough an out as you’ll find in this postseason and beyond. If not, everything else will have to work perfectly for a long postseason run.
Houston Texans: The entire secondary
The Texans finished the 2019 regular season with the worst DVOA of any playoff team, and a lower DVOA than six non-playoff teams: The Rams, Buccaneers, Bears, Colts, Falcons, and Steelers. They’ve also allowed the most touchdown passes of any playoff team with 33 — the Saints are next with 27, and only the Raiders, Redskins, Cardinals, and Dolphins have allowed more overall. Head coach/de facto general manager Bill O’Brien and his crew have certainly tried to fix the problem, bringing Vernon Hargreaves III and Gareon Conley in during the season to augment a cornerback group that hasn’t done much.
Of the five Texans cornerbacks with at least 20% of the team’s defensive snaps this season, only Bradley Roby has more interceptions (two) than touchdowns allowed (one), and Roby is the only one with an opposing passer rating allowed below 90. Lonnie Johnson, Jr., struggling through an injury-plagued season, is the primary culprit on the other end, with seven touchdowns allowed and no picks. When he tries to present tight coverage, as he does here in Week 17 against Tajae Sharpe of the Titans, Johnson is a step late to the party more often than not.
Neither Hargreaves nor Conley have been much better, allowing a combined 11 touchdowns to just two interceptions this season. Justin Reid and Jahleel Addae have been comparatively consistent as the team’s primary safeties, but this does not look like the kind of secondary that will be able to compete with any high-flying passing game in the postseason.
Tennessee Titans: Non-schemed coverage
It could easily be argued that quarterback Ryan Tannehill is the Titans’ 2019 Most Valuable Player; the team was 2-4 when Tannehill took over for Marcus Mariota in Week 7, and they’re 7-3 since. Since the switch, Tennessee’s offense ranks second in completion rate (69.6%) behind only the Saints (72.7%). Tennessee ranks first over that time in yards per pass (9.6), second to the Ravens (10.5%) in touchdown percentage (8.1%), first in quarterback rating (119.5) and second to the Ravens (53.4) in Positive Play Rate (53.0). Gilmore will most likely shadow receiver A.J. Brown, who became the fourth rookie receiver since 1970 after Isaac Curtis, Willie Gault and Randy Moss with four touchdown catches of 50 or more yards. It’s a good time for the Titans to face a Patriots defense that has been uncharacteristically vulnerable of late.
Still, I’d give the team MVP award to defensive coordinator Dean Pees and his staff, because they’ve done an absolutely marvelous job scheming coverages that their defensive backs can handle. With Logan Ryan, Tramaine Brock, Malcolm Butler, and Adoree Jackson as their primary cornerbacks, the Titans have not had a group who can face up against top receivers and trail credibly through all routes. They need scheme to help them — pre-snap disguises that turn into post-snap confusion for quarterbacks and allow opportunistic safeties Kevin Byard and Kenny Vaccaro to take advantage on the back end.
This Week 13 Logan Ryan interception of a Jacoby Brissett pass is a perfect example.
Pre-snap, Brissett is reading single-high coverage, and he doesn’t react to Ryan breaking from the line to give Tennessee an extra deep defender in what becomes a Tampa-2 look. As long as Pees and his coaches continue to scheme deviously, the Titans should be in good shape. Their offense has certainly shown massive improvement across the board.
New England Patriots: Tom Brady under pressure
Yes, New England’s pass defense has regressed to a debilitating degree over the last couple weeks, and that’s a real problem against the Titans, who have one of the NFL’s most dynamic passing offenses since Ryan Tannehill took over for Marcus Mariota in Week 7. But let’s assume, based on overwhelming history, that Bill Belichick will figure something out there. What Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels haven’t been able to figure out all season is how to create a similarly effective passing game around Tom Brady.
The problem is two-fold. On the back half of the passing game, there’s a beleaguered offensive line and Brady’s declining pocket movement skills. Brady also has to deal with a group of receivers (Julian Edelman excepted) who struggle mightily to create separation, which means there are far too many instances in which Brady is waiting for someone to come open, and it doesn’t happen before a pass-rusher ruins the moment.
Thus, Brady’s numbers against pressure and the blitz this season. Overall against pressure, Brady has the NFL’s worst completion rate (36.0%) and the second-worst passer rating (51.8, ahead of only Jameis Winston). Against the blitz, Brady has completed just 50.8% of his passes, and while he does have eight touchdown passes to just two interceptions against the blitz, he’s got five touchdown passes to three interceptions under pressure. So, if you blitz Brady and you don’t get to him, it’s likely that you’re leaving openings he can exploit. But when enemy defenses can bracket Edelman and not have to worry much about anyone else, things become easier for those defenses — and that’s been the case all season.
The Titans, New England’s wild-card opponent, blitzed on just 24.8% of their defensive plays in the regular season, and they still managed 43 sacks and 189 total pressures. Both numbers rank in the middle of the pack, but against New England’s offense, pretty good could be more than good enough.
Minnesota Vikings: The cornerbacks
Through Mike Zimmer’s career as both a head coach in Minnesota and as a defensive coordinator in both Dallas and Cincinnati, great coverage has been a hallmark of his defenses. This, however, has not been the case with Zimmer’s cornerbacks in the 2019 season. Both Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes have been severe liabilities in coverage — Rhodes has allowed 59 completions on 70 targets for 707 yards and an opponent passer rating of 127.8. Waynes has allowed 61 completions on 84 targets for 653 yards, and an opponent passer rating of 109.9. Between them, Rhodes and Waynes have allowed nine touchdowns, and only Waynes has an interception. Mike Hughes and Mackensie Alexander have been decent — certainly better than Rhodes and Waynes — but were it not for the efforts of safeties Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris, this defense would be in a world of trouble. Smith and Harris have nine interceptions and no touchdowns allowed between them, and Harris is one of two defensive players this season — Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White is the other — to pick off six passes without allowing a touchdown. The Vikings start their 2019 postseason run against the Saints, and if Rhodes and Waynes play as they have all season, it could be a very short postseason run, indeed.
New Orleans Saints: Slot coverage
Saints quarterback Drew Brees was named NFC Offensive Player for the Month in a December where he completed 75.4% of his passes, averaged 8.6 yards per attempt, and threw 15 touchdowns to no interceptions. And it’s a good thing Brees has been this effective lately, because most of New Orleans’ pass defense has been a real problem of late. Aside from rookie Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, who’s been very good both outside and in the slot, New Orleans’ coverage — especially its slot coverage — has been lacking. The primary problem there has been P.J. Williams, who’s allowed 15 receptions on 18 targets for 153 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 141.7 in the slot in December alone.
Acquiring former Giants cornerback Janoris Jenkins was supposed to help, but Jenkins — who was excellent in coverage for his former team this season — appears to still be getting the hand of things in New Orleans. He’s allowed six slot catches on nine targets for 71 yards, a touchdown, and an opponent passer rating of 127.5. Gardner-Johnson has been the lockdown guy in the slot, allowing two catches on six targets for 18 yards, no touchdowns, one interception, and an opponent passer rating of 2.8 — no, that’s not a typo. Outside of Gardner-Johnson’s efforts, there’s a whole lot of miscommunication and late movement from the slot, as seen on this Week 16 touchdown pass from Ryan Tannehill to Tajae Sharpe, in which Jenkins (No. 20) gets beaten badly on the crossing route.
If this continues, Brees will have to keep up his torrid pace for the Saints to do anything in the playoffs.
Seattle Seahawks: The offensive line
The hope for the Seahawks is that safety Quandre Diggs will be back from his high ankle sprain for the wild-card game against Philly’s depleted receiver corps. If that’s not the case, safety play rockets to the top of Seattle’s list of potentially fatal flaws. If Diggs is in, we must turn our attention to an offensive line that has been a serious issue, especially since left tackle Duane Brown suffered a meniscus (knee) injury in Week 16. Brown won’t play against the Eagles’ dangerous defensive front in fhe wild-card round, which leaves George Fant to deal with that. Fant has allowed two sacks and 20 total pressures in just 221 pass-blocking snaps this season, as opposed to Brown, who has allowed one sack and 17 total pressures in 451 pass-blocking snaps. Seattle’s leader among its tackles in pass-blocking snaps is right tackle Germain Ifedi, which presents its own set of problems. The 2016 first-round pick has never lived up to his draft capital, and he hasn’t done so in 2019, either — instead, he’s allowed six sacks, 50 pressures, and has racked up 13 total penalties on 660 pass-blocking snaps this season.
Teams don’t even have to blitz the Seahawks for things to fall apart pretty much everywhere. Even the look of a blitz can send that line into unfortunate errors.
Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson are used to dealing with weak offensive lines — they’ve done so through most of Carroll’s tenure in Seattle and pretty much all of Wilson’s time in the Emerald City. But it has taken its toll. Since losing Super Bowl XLIX to the Patriots at the end of the 2014 season, the Seahawks have just two postseason wins.
Philadelphia Eagles: Receiver depth
This is the most obvious fatal flaw on this list. In 2019, Carson Wentz became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for 4,000 yards without a single receiver totaling at least 500 yards. Wentz has had DeSean Jackson for just three games, Alshon Jeffery for 10, and Nelson Agholor for 11. Tight end Zach Ertz has been a stalwart in this injury mess, but even he is dealing with rib and kidney injuries as the Eagles head into the playoffs. In December, Ertz finished fifth on the team in receptions. The four guys above him were tight end Dallas Goedert, receiver Greg Ward, and running backs Miles Sanders and Boston Scott. Doug Pederson’s team has a decent chance in the wild-card round against a Seattle secondary that’s been up and down all season, and it’s a tribute to Pederson’s skill set that the Eagles are in this postseason at all with all those injuries, but there are no participation trophies at this level. Wentz will have to do his best work if the Eagles are to survive and advance.
