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Wales Online
Wales Online
Politics
Ruth Mosalski

The ominous findings for second Brexit referendum supporters from the latest Wales poll

Opposition to a second referendum on Brexit is growing in Wales, new figures show.

The latest analysis of a What the latest Welsh poll shows as Labour and Tory support in 'freefall' shows that the amount of people who want a second referendum has fallen in the last two months.

Polling found that 41% of people now support a second referendum (down 4% since February) and 46% oppose one (up 2% since February). Another 2% said they did not know.

When asked whether they wanted to be members of the EU, more people opted for Remain - despite Wales as a whole voting to leave the EU in 2016.

However, it is only a slim margin.

Cardiff University's Professor Roger Awan-Scully says: "The poll thus shows a continued small lead for remain, as has been the case in all recent Welsh polling. Once we take out all those refusing to give a preference, the number round to a 54% to 46% advantage for remain."

Deal or no-deal?

When it came to choosing between accepting the current deal or leaving the EU without a deal, 59% wanted the deal with 84% of 2016 Remain voters preferring the deal, whereas 68% of Leave voters prefer a No Deal scenario.

Theresa May's deal or second referendum:

If the choice was between accepting the deal or a second referendum, then 52% are in favour of another vote.

In those circumstances, most Remain voters now want another vote, while 2016 Leave voters now swap sides and become the main supporters of the deal.

Second referendum or no deal:

If the choice is between a second referendum and a no deal exit it becomes 53% in favour of a second poll to 47%.

If it was a choice between going to the polls again or crashing out of the EU, 87% of 2016 Remain voters want another ballot, while 82% of those who voted Leave favour a No Deal exit.

What the latest Welsh poll shows as Labour and Tory support in 'freefall' 

People were also asked how worried they were about no deal

If European elections were held in Wales, it would be bad news for the Conservatives.

The poll found that the Conservatives would lose 10 percentage points of support.

Wales' four MEPs are currently Derek Vaughan (Labour), Jill Evans (Plaid Cymru) Nathan Gill (Brexit Party) and Kay Swinburne (Conservatives).

Despite that huge drop in support, the Conservatives would still take a seat.

If the polls were carried through to elections, it would mean the Labour party would win two of Wales’ four European Parliament seats, with one going to each of the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru.

Current MEP Kay Swinburne has said she will not stand again and the Conservative party has put potential candidates on warning.

The foods we will be eating less in a worst case Brexit scenario 

However, Prof Roger Awan-Scully says that in 2014, early support for Labour dwindled as the vote got closer.

While current MEP Nathan Gill is a member of the Brexit Party, not Ukip, Professor Awan-Scully says that support for both parties would need to combine for them to gain a seat.

"We should also observe that if the combined share indicated in this poll for them and the new Brexit party were to coalesce around the most effective challenger, that would easily be enough to win a seat in Wales," he writes.

YouGov interviewed a nationally representative sample of 1,025 adults in Wales online between 2-5 April 2019.

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