A settled system of responsive, trustworthy government remains an aspiration, not a reality, for many people in Spain. The country has made enormous strides since the end of Franco’s dictatorship in 1975. Its accession to the EEC in 1986 decisively boosted the forces of modernisation. But its recent politics, mired in division, separatism and corruption, has served as a reminder that democracy is fragile and easily subverted.
Unsurprisingly, 67% of Spaniards hold a favourable view of the European Union. Only the Poles are more enthusiastic, according to a recent Pew Research Center survey. But Spanish voters are considerably less impressed by their national leaders. Spain’s Centre for Sociological Research (CIS) says that almost 30% of citizens identify politics, politicians and parties as the biggest problem facing the country.
Perhaps it was ever thus. Political life in Spain has always been a struggle between progression and reaction, between absolutism and pluralism. And voters now appear embroiled in something akin to the 1701-14 War of the Spanish Succession as they head to the polls in the third general election in four years.
Pedro Sánchez and his centre-left Socialists hope to hold on to power, if need be with help from minor parties. A possible coalition of rightwing and far-right parties hopes to unseat them. So far, so local. But, just as the succession conflict in the early 18th century engulfed the whole of Europe, so do the issues raised by Spain’s election reflect and affect the broader European situation.
As elsewhere, Spain’s traditional two-party structure has fragmented. As elsewhere, old party and tribal loyalties are dissolving; in Spain, one in four voters was undecided on election eve. As elsewhere, public anger with a failing political system is tangible. Yet when looked at differently, Spain might also be said to be leading the way.
The CIS’s research found that the most important issue on voters’ minds was unemployment, symbolising wider concerns about the economy. Corruption and fraud ranked second. Doubtless, many voters have in mind the scandals that last year forced Mariano Rajoy’s People’s party from office.
The key point here is what voters are not worrying about. In common with far-right groups in other European countries, Vox, Spain’s newly formed populist-nationalist party, has used the spectre of unchecked immigration to rally support. Yet polling shows only 9% of Spaniards say this is their biggest concern. This finding mirrors a pan-European survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) and YouGov. It found only 15% of EU voters saw immigration as the most serious issue. As in Spain, the economy rated far higher.
Likewise, the contentious issue of Catalan independence and, by extension, questions of national identity and unity have been big talking points for Spanish politicians of all parties. Vox’s leader, Santiago Abascal, wants to lock up Catalan “traitors” and throw away the key. To hear him talk, separatism is a mortal danger. But, as in Europe as a whole, the reality is different. Only 11% of Spaniards told the CIS this issue mattered most to them.
The ECFR’s survey went further down the counter-intuitive route, producing clear evidence that, like Spain, huge numbers of voters (70%) are undecided as the EU parliamentary elections approach. Like Spain, old loyalties are fading and established mainstream parties face dramatic shrinkages in core support. Like Spaniards, many other Europeans do not support intolerant forms of nationalism; rather, they abhor them. And for some in eastern Europe, emigration is a bigger threat than immigration.
What all this strongly indicates is that politicians all across Europe are still not talking about the things that matter most to voters. Instead, they impose their own agendas, create fear where fear did not previously exist and exploit it for partisan advantage. This phenomenon can be observed from Northern Ireland to Poland and back again via Germany and Italy, where Matteo Salvini’s anti-migrant, racist League party is a prime exponent.
The headlines for next month’s EU election results are already written. They will trumpet the rise of far-right populist parties – and it’s true such groups are likely to advance – but, as in Spain, the real European story is more nuanced and much less alarming. The EU is not on the brink of some grand ideological showdown between “open” and “closed” Europe. The main impetus, dictated by voters, not politicians, is for socially inclusive changes to the status quo – and effective action on everyday issues such as wages, taxes, austerity cuts and healthcare.
The centre can hold. But the fortunes of progressive leaders everywhere depend on a willingness to understand and respond to the needs of the majority of voters who continue to occupy Europe’s conflicted, fragmented middle ground. Emmanuel Macron gets it, albeit belatedly. France’s president plainly does not have all the answers. But responding last week to the gilets jaunes’ calls for change, he focused on a basic requirement: that those in government show “humanity”.
It’s very French. But it is as good a place as any from which to start the process of making a better Europe for all its people.
