For months, Boris Johnson and his band of hard Tory Brexiters talked of virtually nothing else. It was as though the moment on 31 January when Britain left the EU was the only thing in the world that mattered. It marked, for them, the climax of an opportunistic project that shook up Europe’s political landscape, brought a big election victory and confirmed Johnson’s ascendancy.
It is now painfully clear, as the government struggles to defeat the Covid-19 pandemic, that Britain is paying a heavy price for the Brexit distraction in the early weeks of 2020. Johnson and senior ministers were simply not paying sufficient attention as the virus rapidly migrated from China to these shores.
This assertion is officially denied, of course. To admit otherwise would be a resignation matter. But there is good reason to believe Johnson et al were more concerned with whether Big Ben’s bongs would welcome Brexit’s dawn than with ensuring Britain’s health and social services were prepared and equipped to deal with the looming emergency.
Brexit continues to be an unwelcome, unnecessary and damaging distraction today. Many, including this newspaper, believe it always was. The difference now is those same Tory Brexiters who could barely contain their glee in January do not want to discuss it either. Even for them, Brexit has become a problematic embarrassment.
It’s not hard to discern why. What sane government, at this time of unprecedented economic, financial, social and human distress, would deliberately risk further, massive disruption to vital trade, business, investment and security lifelines? Yet thanks to the Brexiters, this second catastrophe – a calamity of choice – is racing towards us like a runaway train loaded with explosives.
Talks in Brussels, postponed due to the virus, resumed last week with a bald statement by David Frost, the lead UK negotiator, that Britain would not seek to extend the transition period that ends on 31 December. What that means in reality is that, absent an act of divine intervention or last-minute climbdown, Britain is getting set to jump off a no-deal cliff at its moment of greatest vulnerability.
Uncomfortable fact 1: There is limited capacity and even less inclination among EU leaders to divert effort and resources, amid an extraordinary crisis, into a rushed negotiation, just to suit Johnson’s artificial timetable, as Michel Barnier made clear on Friday. The Germans, who will hold the EU council presidency from July, have already indicated as much. Berlin’s focus, rightly, will be on Europe’s reconstruction, not Britain’s self-destruction.
Uncomfortable fact 2: Britain’s negotiating positions are inflexible to the point of obtuseness. Barnier singled out fisheries. But there are deep differences across the board. The EU’s chief negotiator complained Britain was dragging its feet, pointing out that doing so made the December deadline even less practical. The very real possibility that Johnson actually has no coherent plan at all does not appear to have occurred to Barnier. He should consider it.
Uncomfortable fact 3: a no-deal crash looms large because there is almost certainly not enough time to achieve the most rudimentary, bare-bones free trade agreement, if one were on offer, or even to fully implement last year’s withdrawal agreement. Any transition extension must be agreed by 30 June. After that, in EU and British law, there is no going back. The chasm beckons.
This is not a policy - it is a charlatan’s farce. These are not the acts of responsible, sensible political leaders. Brexit was always a largely delusional, dishonest project. Now it is entering the realms of fantasy and nightmare. By persisting as though nothing has changed, Johnson, Dominic Raab and the rest risk untold additional damage to a country already desperately struggling to survive the pandemic.
Given the disaster that has befallen us all, the only rational course is to swiftly apply for a Brexit extension of at least one year and preferably two, agree additional budget contributions and actively cooperate with the EU on measures to rebuild a pan-European economy that remains vital for UK prosperity.
It’s plain, despite the denials, that Brexiters’ disdain for such cooperation lay behind the lethal failure to join an EU purchasing scheme for protective clothing and ventilators. It is also of great concern that Johnson’s hard Brexit guru, Dominic Cummings, is attending meetings of the government’s scientific advisory group, Sage. His presence undoubtedly pollutes discussions that are supposedly strictly non-political. Here is further evidence of Brexit blight.
There are hints in Whitehall that more grounded Tories understand that continued intransigence over an extension cannot be sustained. It should be evident to even the most ideologically obsessed that taking back control cannot mean kicking away yet more human, economic and social props as the national edifice trembles and people suffer and die. This is plain common sense.
Johnson must decide and quickly. Once he re-enters politics after his illness, he should level with the country. Even though he doesn’t want to, Johnson needs to talk about Brexit – and why the current timetable must change. Brexit isn’t done.
