It’s not often that Pakistanis find something to cheer about, given the severity of the country’s cost of living, security, energy, employment and environmental problems – but the results of last week’s general election are definitely worth celebrating. It is not so much the final outcome that matters: that remains uncertain. It is that voters turned out in huge numbers to exercise their democratic rights and successfully thwart the army’s blatant efforts to steal the contest.
With most results in, it is plain that Nawaz Sharif, a veteran former prime minister, and his party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), have failed to secure the outright victory predicted by many analysts. Instead, independent candidates loyal to Imran Khan, jailed leader of the banned Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, won the most seats, with the once dominant Pakistan People’s party (PPP) trailing in third place.
This amounts to little short of an earthquake in a country whose political life is traditionally dominated, usually from behind the scenes, by powerful military chiefs. At times, the army has moved front of stage, as during the presidency of the late Gen Pervez Musharraf (who overthrew Sharif in a coup in 1999), and before him, the dictator Gen Zia-ul-Haq. Yet even when civilians took charge, the army pulled the strings, supported, funded and armed by successive US administrations.
Khan’s appeal to voters rests in part on his fierce criticism of what many Pakistanis view as unwelcome American interference, especially during the west’s 20-year war in Afghanistan, which spilled over the frontier into north-west Pakistan. Although the generals backed him in 2018, Khan’s brand of “Islamist populism” increasingly unnerved them. After he was toppled as prime minister in 2022, Khan and the military have engaged in open political warfare.
Khan’s recent sentencing to long jail terms, which followed the barring of the PTI from the election, and the harassment and intimidation of party candidates, who were forced to stand as independents, was taken as proof that the military would not tolerate his return to power. It also became clear that Sharif was the army’s preferred candidate to be installed as prime minister. While that may still happen, the voters have given the generals a memorable bloody nose.
The current army chief, Gen Asim Munir, is trying to put a brave face on it. He claimed the elections were a success, despite allegations of vote-rigging and a suspicious internet blackout that delayed and obscured the count. The military appears to have been outmanoeuvred in its efforts to manipulate the poll, not least by the PTI’s innovative use of social media platforms – crucial in a country with high illiteracy. AI-generated campaign video speeches were produced, making it look as if Khan was addressing voters as he sat in jail.
Despite coming second, Sharif is brazenly claiming to have won the right to form the next government. To do so, he will need support from his old PPP enemies, the party of assassinated prime minister Benazir Bhutto. He may also try to woo independents who stood as Khan’s allies. But shady moves cannot hide the fact Khan won an impressive victory. Any future government may struggle while he remains incarcerated and in effective exile – less the king over the water as the king of Adiala jail in Rawalpindi.
Attempts to ignore Khan and his supporters may trigger further unrest and instability. That is the opposite of what the country needs. At a time in history when the integrity of democracy in India and Bangladesh also faces serious questions, Pakistanis should take a moment to celebrate the voter revolt of 2024.
