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Manchester Evening News
Manchester Evening News
Sport
Josh Williams

The numbers behind Dean Henderson's fight for Manchester United's goalkeeper spot with De Gea

David de Gea experienced a tough outing on the weekend against Everton after his three goals conceded prevented Manchester United from delivering three points at Old Trafford.

Two of those goals were arguably preventable, with the Spanish goalkeeper parrying the ball into Abdoulaye Doucoure's path on the 49th minute before failing to close down Dominic Calvert-Lewin in the final moment of the contest before the striker found the net.

There is legitimate competition for the primary goalkeeping place this season, with Ole Gunnar Solskjaer ultimately approaching the point whereby he has a decision to make regarding De Gea and the awaiting Dean Henderson.

Henderson will start between the sticks against West Ham on Tuesday in the FA Cup, and if he showcases a strong display, he could displace his Spanish teammate before too long.

Ahead of a potential decision, let's take a look at how the two players compare for shot-stopping in the Premier League since the beginning of last season.

According to post-shot Expected Goals - which focuses on shots that hit the target and takes into account the quality and trajectory of the shot - Henderson should have conceded roughly 41.6 league over the period in question, but he's actually shipped just 36.

The numbers are determined based on the typical average goalkeeper, meaning that Henderson has saved shots to an above-average standard by outperforming his numbers by roughly 5.6 goals.

De Gea, by contrast, has been expected to concede 60.8 goals, and he's actually shipped 60 excluding own goals.

Those numbers suggest that De Gea has saved shots to a completely normal and average standard, having overperformed by a marginal amount of 0.8 compared to Henderson's 5.6.

The former has saved 70.1 percent of the shots on target that he faced, while the latter has saved 75.5 percent.

Over the period used, Henderson has simply prevented goals from being conceded to a higher level than De Gea has and providing he's awarded time by Solskjaer, he could soon be afforded the opportunity to consistently demonstrate that quality in goal for United.

The decision ahead of the weekend clash with West Brom won't be easy, but the 23 year-old certainly has the numbers on his side.

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