Over recent weeks the number of people being admitted to hospital with Covid has fallen at a very encouraging rate.
Latest figures from the Welsh Government show that there were 447 people in general and acute hospital beds with coronavirus (confirmed, suspected, and recovering) on December 17.
In comparison at the start of November - which proved to be the height of the third wave - there were 300 more Covid patients in hospital with the virus in these types of beds (753 on November 5).
Similarly, the number of patients needing the highest form of treatment in invasive ventilated beds has more than halved between then and now (75 on November 1 and 33 on December 17).
The Welsh Government, NHS leaders and experts in public health were buoyed by these decreasing figures, particularly as we approached the winter period when demand for inpatient healthcare always spikes.
The success of the vaccination rollout over the previous 12 months had, according to many, paid dividends and appeared to have greatly reduced people's severity of illness.
However, this was before the true extent of the Omicron variant was truly realised. Studies have shown the mutant strain to be highly infectious at a time when the efficacy of the two vaccines is reportedly on the wane.
While Wales-specific modelling on Omicron and hospitalisations has yet to be finalised, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) has warned of spiralling hospital rates throughout the UK in the coming weeks.
"Even if there were to be a modest reduction in severity compared to Delta, very high numbers of infections would still lead to significant pressure on hospitals," Sage warned in a report published on December 16.
"As a result of the very high number of current infections, hospitalisations in UK will reach high levels in about two weeks, even if transmission is reduced soon because there are lags between infections, symptoms appearing, and hospitalisation."
Sage warned that there are likely to be between 1,000 and 2,000 hospital admissions per day in England by the end of the year.
"Many of these will be people who are already infected now or who become infected in the next few days. The acceleration of the booster vaccination programme will not affect transmission and severe and mild disease in time to mitigate these hospitalisations for the rest of 2021 (high confidence)," it added.
Sage stated that should the UK want to reduce levels of infection in the population and prevent hospitalisations reaching high levels, more stringent measures would need to be implemented "very soon".
"The earlier interventions happen the greater the effect they will have (high confidence). This may also mean that they can be kept in place for a shorter duration," it added.
At the Welsh Government press conference on Friday, First Minister Mark Drakeford admitted that the fast spread of Omicron is likely to translate into large numbers of people being admitted to hospital in Wales.
"We are already seeing increases in the number of people in hospital with Covid-19 in London and we have to be prepared for the same thing to happen here too," he said.
Welsh Government ministers are meeting with scientists throughout the morning and afternoon of Monday, December 20, to discuss the latest scientific data.
Mr Drakeford has suggested table service and compulsory contact tracing could return, as well as restrictions on sporting events. An announcement is expected either on Monday evening or Tuesday.
Meanwhile, 28 health and care organisations, charities, unions and medical professionals, have joined forces to encourage the public to continue to make sensible choices to help stop coronavirus from spreading.
The #NotTooMuchToMask campaign calls on the public to commit to keep themselves and others safe by pledging to:
- Wear a face mask, if not exempt
- Keep indoor spaces well ventilated and meet outdoors if you can
- Make sure you get the coronavirus vaccine, including boosters and third doses when advised
- Clean your hands regularly including before and after social contact with those outside your household
- Test regularly, support contact tracing measures and self-isolate when required
Darren Hughes, director of the Welsh NHS Confederation, said: "The public has a vital role to play in curbing the spread of the virus in our communities. No one wants the situation to escalate to a point where the NHS becomes overwhelmed this winter, meaning another lockdown is unavoidable. That’s why we must all take action to protect ourselves and those around us – we can all help.
"With an undeniably difficult few months ahead, we’re asking people to continue making sensible and cautious choices about how they go about their lives, in line with Welsh Government advice, to help protect themselves and keep their loved ones safe. Above all, we urge everyone to take up the offer of the Covid booster jab if eligible and when contacted."
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