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Football London
Football London
Sport
Lee Wilmot

The nightmare scenario Barcelona, Arsenal and Benfica can hand Tottenham in the Champions League

Tottenham are all but guaranteed a place in next season's Champions League.

Defeat to Bournemouth on Saturday left them looking nervously over their shoulders, but Arsenal's draw with Brighton means that only a monumental eight-goal swing on the final day of the season, with Spurs losing and Arsenal winning, will stop them reaching the Champions League group stages next season.

Spurs are fourth in the Premier League on 70 points with Arsenal on 67 heading into the final weekend of the campaign.

So for all intents and purposes Tottenham are once again a Champions League team next season.

But what pot will they be in?

Who Chelsea and Spurs could face in the 2019/20 Champions League group stages  

They were seeded in pot two for the 2018/19 campaign, as a result of a number of teams ahead of them in the UEFA coefficient rankings missing out.

And Spurs will once again be relying on teams ahead of them missing out.

But they are also relying on something else too - Barcelona not winning the Champions League and Benfica not winning the Portuguese Primeira Liga.

Here's why...

How do the coefficients work?

The club coefficients are based on the performance of the clubs in European competition over the five previous seasons and determine the seeding of each club in relevant UEFA competition draws.

How do the coefficients stand?

  1. Real Madrid
  2. Barcelona
  3. Bayern Munich
  4. Atletico Madrid
  5. Juventus
  6. Manchester City
  7. Sevilla
  8. Paris Saint-Germain
  9. Arsenal
  10. Porto
  11. Liverpool
  12. Borussia Dortmund
  13. Chelsea
  14. Roma
  15. Napoli
  16. Shakhtar Donetsk
  17. Manchester United
  18. Tottenham Hotspur
  19. Zenit St Petersburg
  20. Ajax
  21. Benfica

How the pots are made

Pot one consists of the winners of the top six European leagues - Spain, England, Italy, Germany, France and Russia - plus the winners of the Champions League and Europa League.

Pots two, three and four are then sorted by UEFA club coefficient rankings.

Pot one as it stands

Barcelona

Manchester City

Juventus

Bayern Munich

PSG

Zenit Saint Petersburg

Champions League Winner

Europa League Winner

Where does that leave Spurs?

Spurs have moved up a place to 18th in the UEFA coefficient list, but they moved above Zenit Saint Petersburg, who are top of the Russian League, and the winners of that take a spot in pot one of the draw, meaning Spurs will need three teams above them not to qualify for the 2019/20 competition.

Eleven teams ahead of Spurs in the coefficient rankings have already qualified, while Ukrainian side Shakhtar Donetsk, also ahead of Spurs, will qualify barring an incredible collapse in their final four games of the season.

With Arsenal and Manchester United both missing out on next year's competition, unless Arsenal go on and win the Europa League, that leaves Spurs looking at the fate of Sevilla, Porto and Roma in the final few weeks of their seasons.

Kostas Manolas of AS Roma (Quality Sport Images/Getty Images)

Porto have all but secured second place in the Portuguese Primeira Liga, and would go through a qualifier if they finished there. However, they could still win the title, just two points behind Benfica with two games to go.

Sevilla are three points outside the top four in Spain's La Liga with just two games to go, while Roma are three points outside Italy's top four with three games to play.

If those two both miss out, as it looks like they will, Spurs will be guaranteed a place in pot two for the group stage draw.

What's the problem then?

Barcelona could hold the key to Spurs' group stage seeding come the end of the season.

Because Barcelona have already qualified through their league position, if they were to win the Champions League as well, the Champions League winners' spot in pot one would be handed to the champions of the next highest member association on the Uefa coefficient list - which would be Portugal.

(Chris Brunskill/Fantasista/Getty Images)

Current leaders in the Primeira Liga are Benfica, who are below Spurs in the club coefficient rankings, so would drop Spurs down another place.

In that instance, if Porto get in through qualifying, and one of either Roma or Sevilla come back to claim a place in their domestic top four, Spurs would have to settle for being in pot three and could face a group of death scenario.

And there's another problem

Arsenal winning the Europa League.

That would be unthinkable for Tottenham fans and it would also see them earn a place in pot one, dropping Spurs down the list even further.

If Barcelona win the Champions League, Arsenal win the Europa League and Benfica win the Portuguese Primeira Liga, Spurs would be relying on all three of Porto, Sevilla and Roma failing to qualify to hang onto that last place in pot two of the group stage draw.

For all your latest Tottenham Hotspur news, opinion, analysis and transfer gossip, click here

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