With free agency in the National Football League officially opening on Wednesday afternoon, NFL fans are getting a clearer picture of how their favorite team will look headed into the next big piece of the off-season: The NFL Draft.
Given what we have seen to date, who are some winners of the free agency period so far, and who are the losers?
Winners
Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins entered free agency with two major tools at their disposal: Salary cap space and draft capital. They put the former to work over the start of the free agency period, making a number of critical additions, particularly on the defensive side of the football. They added former Buffalo Bills EDGE Shaq Lawson to the front of their defense, and his 6.5 sacks from a season ago would have led the Dolphins. They added linebacker Kyle Van Noy from the New England Patriots, who served in a few different roles for the Patriots a season ago. The off-ball linebacker can rush the passer but can also handle coverage responsibilities. They also added cornerback Byron Jones, who has true lockdown corner abilities and also some versatility, having played safety in his career as well.
Offensively, the Dolphins added Ereck Flowers, who seemed to rejuvenate his career after a switch to guard. Miami added to their running back group by adding Jordan Howard, giving them a solid runner to complement their arsenal of pass-catching backs.
Now what can they do? Well, they have three first-round selections and six in the top 70 selections.
The Dolphins are in a great spot right now, and with some wise draft picks, they are set up to contend in the AFC East sooner rather than later.
Buffalo Bills
The driver for this ranking is the acquisition of wide receiver Stefon Diggs. The Buffalo Bills acquired him from the Minnesota Vikings along with a seventh-round selection in this draft in exchange for picks in the first, fifth and sixth rounds this year an a fourth-round selection in the 2021 draft.
The Bills made the playoffs a year ago despite quarterback Josh Allen struggling as a downfield passer. Allen ranked 23rd of 24 qualified passers in Adjusted Completion Percentage on downfield throws last season, according to charting from Pro Football Focus. Getting a downfield threat in Diggs, who had a career-high 1,130 yards receiving and an impressive 17.9 yards per reception a season ago will go a long way towards helping Allen in the vertical passing game. Diggs saw 29 targets of over 20 yards last season, catching 16 of those for 635 yards and six touchdowns. Those 29 deep passing targets tied Diggs for the third-most in the league. Additionally, Diggs just signed a contract extension last off-season and is signed through the 2023 campaign.
That alone makes the Bills winners, but they also added on the defensive side of the football with outside linebacker Mario Addison, defensive tackle Vernon Butler, defensive end Quinton Jefferson, and inside linebacker Tyler Matakevich. Plus, they retained free safety Jordan Poyer, a critical component on the back of their defense. All very solid moves for Buffalo.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
They added the greatest quarterback of all time.
That alone should make the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a winner.
Now some might question the fit of Tom Brady in Bruce Arians’ passing game, but as we here at Touchdown Wire have argued, Brady is still playing the position at a high level, and his fit in what Arians does schematically is more ideal than you might think it is.
Brady instantly makes this offense dangerous. The Buccaneers were able to put up points a year ago, but the 30 interceptions thrown by Jameis Winston consistently put the Tampa Bay defense in difficult positions. Brady’s penchant for avoiding big mistakes will go a long way towards improving this offense.
But beyond Brady, the Buccaneers retained two big components of their pass rush in Shaquil Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul. They applied the franchise tag to Barrett, giving them time to work out a long-term extension, and they signed a two year extension with Pierre-Paul. Furthermore, they might not be done, as reports indicate they might even be interested in running back Todd Gurley and a wide receiver as well.
Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns made a number of moves that are completely logical and give us a window into how they will approach their offense in the year ahead. They acquired the best tight end available on the market, bringing in Austin Hooper from the Atlanta Falcons. Hooper might struggle to win one-on-ones consistently, but with Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry on the outside, he will continue to see favorable matchups on the inside of the Browns’ passing game. This might not necessarily spell the end of David Njoku’s time in Cleveland, however, given how much Kevin Stefanski relies on two-tight end packages. Last year the Minnesota Vikings used 12 offensive personnel 35 percent of the time, and only the Philadelphia Eagles surpassed that as a percentage of their offensive plays.
Cleveland also added a tackle, acquiring Jack Conklin from the Tennessee Titans. Conklin was a solid right tackle last season after returning from injury, and gives Cleveland a solid option on that side of the line. Considering that they likely look to draft a tackle with the tenth overall selection to lock down the left tackle spot, the Browns might be close to fixing their tackle spots. They acquired Case Keenum, who can serve as a veteran backup familiar with Stefanski’s offense while also perhaps as a mentor to Baker Mayfield. Finally, they added fullback Andy Janovich via a trade with the Denver Broncos. After 12 offensive personnel, the Vikings used 21 offensive personnel (two running backs, one tight end and two wide receivers) 26 percent of the time last year, their second-most utilized personnel package. For a team that is likely to rely on 12 and 21 personnel packages, the Browns addressed some critical needs.
Arizona Cardinals
In a move that left many wondering what exactly the Houston Texans were doing, the Arizona Cardinals acquired DeAndre Hopkins in a trade with the Texans, and were also able to shed the contract of David Johnson in the process, sending him to the AFC South. In Hopkins the Cardinals get one of the premier wide receivers in the NFL, and since they still hold the eighth overall selection in the draft, they could conceivably draft their choice of the top WRs in this draft class, which many consider to be a historically deep group. You could see Kyler Murray lining up next season with a 10 personnel package with Hopkins, Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk and CeeDee Lamb at his disposal. Good luck defense.
Beyond the Hopkins addition, Arizona added defensive tackle Jordan Phillips, to help the interior of their defensive line, and placed the transition tag on running back Kenyan Drake. That will give the Cardinals the chance to match any contract he is offered on the open market. But the big piece is Hopkins, and given the minimal expenditure (Johnson, a second round pick and a fourth round pick in 2021) it was a steal.
LOSERS
Houston Texans
They traded away one of the game’s best wide receivers. They acquired a running back (with a big contract) and picks in return. They still lack a first round selection, and while they could theoretically move into the first round now given their two second round picks, what will they draft there? A wide receiver? Why not hold on to the one you have, rather than bank on the one that could be?
As for Johnson’s contract? He has a cap number of $20 million over the next two seasons.
The Texans made a few moves after the trade, such as acquiring Randall Cobb to bolster a weakened wide receiver room, and adding free safety Eric Murray and cornerback Vernon Hargreaves. But even those additions cannot outweigh the loss of Hopkins.
New England Patriots
Does it, perhaps, feel like the rebuild is upon us?
Obviously the loss of the game’s greatest quarterback is a big deal. With Tom Brady moving to the NFC South, the Patriots now face a quarterback controversy for the first time since the week before Super Bowl XXXVI. Will they hand the keys to Jarrett Stidham? Acquire a veteran quarterback such as Cam Newton? Only time will tell, but we are told the Patriots have a plan.
But look at who else left town. Linebackers Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins. Safety Duron Harmon, in a trade with the Detroit Lions. Reserve offensive lineman Ted Karras. They placed the franchise tag on guard Joe Thuney and the expectations are that the Patriots will workout a long-term deal, but they could still trade him as well.
This roster is going to look very different come Week 1 of the 2020 season. Bill Belichick is also the greatest coach of all time, but he has his work cut out for him right now.
Detroit Lions
We have seen this move before. A Belichick disciple strikes out on his own and tries to remake his new team in the mold of his former tutor’s. Brian Flores is doing that as well this season down in Miami, but where Flores has succeeded, Matt Patricia seems to have failed. Detroit acquired offensive lineman Halapoulivaati Vaitai, signing him to a reported five year, $45 million dollar contract. They gave Jamie Collins a three year, $30 million dollar contract. They signed Chase Daniel to be their backup, traded for Duron Harmon, and added Danny Shelton. In a vacuum, each of these signings makes sense, but when you put them all together, it seems like Patricia is simply bringing in former Patriots and taking fliers on other additions. It may pan out in the long run, but right now these moves taken together do not make a ton of sense.
Chicago Bears
At some level, this move for Nick Foles makes sense. Foles has won a Super Bowl. He can run Matt Nagy’s offense, given his familiarity with Doug Pederson’s offense. He might be an upgrade over Mitchell Trubisky right now.
Then again, maybe not.
But the cost is a big question mark. The Chicago Bears used a fourth round compensatory pick to acquire Foles, which is fine, but they also acquire his contract. Foles is signed through the 2022 season, and has a cap number of $21,837,500 for this season. That is a lot of money for a veteran quarterback coming off of a broken collarbone that put him on the shelf for most of the 2019 campaign. now it is true, they needed competition for Mitchell Trubisky, but there were other options available. Cheaper options, such as Marcus Mariota or an Andy Dalton. They could have addressed the quarterback spot in the draft with their second round selection, as Jake Fromm would be a perfect fit for their offense. Now, they roll with Foles and Trubisky for the year ahead. This… well, this seems like a panic move.
