So they felt quite at home. But the poor duckling who had been the last one out of his egg, and who looked so ugly, was pecked and pushed about and made fun of by the ducks, and the chickens as well. “He’s too big,” said they all. The turkey gobbler, who thought himself an emperor because he was born wearing spurs, puffed up like a ship under full sail and bore down upon him, gobbling and gobbling until he was red in the face. The poor duckling did not know where he dared stand or where he dared walk. He was so sad because he was so desperately ugly, and because he was the laughing stock of the whole barnyard.
-Hans Christian Andersen: “The Ugly Duckling”
We all remember the tale, although perhaps some of us are more removed from elementary school than others. Back in 1843 Danish poet and author Hans Christian Andersen penned the tale of “The Ugly Duckling,” which told the story of a small bird born in a barnyard who suffered abuse from the others around him until he matures into a beautiful swan, stunning those who previously mocked and ridiculed him.
With the start of free agency in the National Football League upon us, there are some potential ugly ducklings waiting to hear the phone ring. Players who perhaps need a change or scenery, a new scheme fit, different coaching or just another shot to become the players they can be. The league’s own versions of the Andersen classic. Here are 11 potential swans for the 2020 NFL season, listed with either their current or their most recent team.
Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
As we await word on what Bruce Arians will do with his current quarterback, it is important to remember that if he moves on from Tampa Bay or not, Jameis Winston is going to need a bit more development to be a solid and consistent NFL quarterback.
Last season, in Arians’ vertical-based passing offense, Winston had quite the roller-coaster ride. Sure, he threw for 5,109 yards, the most in the league. Sure, he threw 33 touchdowns, second only to Lamar Jackson. But when you move away from some of these counting statistics you get the full picture of Winston’s 2019 campaign. His NFL quarterback rating of 84.3 placed him 26th in the league, behind Daniel Jones, Jacoby Brissett, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Josh Allen and even Joe Flacco. His Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt (ANY/A) of 6.15 was good for 18th in the league, and his interception percentage of 4.8 was the highest in the league.
Due to another counting stat: His league-high 30 interceptions.
That big number might force Arians to move on from Winston, but when you pour through his film from a season ago, you might find some of what you see. For example, take this deep shot to Mike Evans against the Carolina Panthers:
Facing a first-and-10 against the Panthers, Tampa Bay lines up with Winston under center and with a tight bunch to the right. Evans is isolated to the left. The Buccaneers run a vertical concept sometimes termed 969, with dual go routes on the outside and a dig route in the middle of the field. Winston sees the Panthers in single-high coverage and comes to Evans on the go route. The receiver does an excellent job with his release off the line and gets to the outside, quickly beating the press coverage and getting open for his QB. Combine the release and route with a perfect throw, and Tampa Bay has a big play.
And yes, every route was open on this snap, just to be clear.
Then there was this read and throw in the red zone, also against the Panthers:
To the three-receiver side the Buccaneers run a Dino – or double post – concept with O.J. Howard and Chris Godwin. Evans runs a go route on the backside of the passing concept. Concerned with Evans, the one safety drops to help over the top of a potential vertical route. That creates dual one-on-one matchups backside, with no inside help on either post route.
The concern over Evans draws potential safety help away from the three-receiver side of the formation, and leaves both the backside safety and backside corner on islands with no help to the inside. Winston throws a strike, and the Buccaneers are in the end zone.
Winston might have racked up the interceptions a season ago, but reads and throws like this show he still has promise in a vertical-based passing offense. That would make him still a fit for what Arians runs, but if he does have to find a new home, there is a ton of potential for his next offensive coordinator to mold and sculpt.
Marcus Mariota, QB, Tennessee Titans
Jameis Winston is not the only quarterback who could be staring a change of scenery in the face. In fact, the passer selected right after him in the 2015 NFL Draft might be joining him in pricing movers in the next few days.
Marcus Mariota left the University of Oregon with a ton of potential, but a combination of injuries and inconsistent play followed his entire time in Tennessee with the Titans. Injuries were a big reason Mariota never seemed to put it all together. He missed four games during his rookie career due to a knee injury. The following year, which was arguably Mariota’s best season, Mariota’s 2016 campaign was cut short with a broken leg. In 2017, Mariota suffered a hamstring injury and while he only missed one game, his lower body mechanics seemed hampered all season and he struggled to generate consistent velocity. Then in 2018, Mariota dealt with nerve injuries in both his elbow and neck.
The quarterback was healthy at the start of 2019, but it was his ineffective play that sent him to the bench. On came Ryan Tannehill, and the magical carpet ride of the Titans’ season began in earnest.
Mariota has also been hampered by an almost revolving door of offensive coordinators. During his time with the Titans Mariota played for five different OCs, and any quarterback will likely struggle when trying to learn a new system year after year.
All of this makes Mariota a perfect candidate for a rebirth with a new organization. As argued previously, Mariota is perhaps an ideal candidate to push Mitchell Trubisky with the Chicago Bears next season. Matt Nagy simply needs a quarterback who will efficiently execute his offense, working through reads quickly and getting the ball out on time and in rhythm. Those are tasks that Trubisky has struggled with the past two seasons, and those are aspects to the position that Mariota can execute in the short- and intermediate-passing game.
Wherever he ends up, Mariota is surely a candidate for a strong second act.
Xavier Rhodes, CB, Minnesota Vikings
On the cusp of free agency the Minnesota Vikings were one of the first teams to make some difficult decisions, and the organization announced they were releasing defensive lineman Linval Joseph, and Rhodes, a two-time Pro Bowler at the cornerback position.
Rhodes was drafted in the first round of the 2013 Draft by the Vikings, but it took him a few seasons to grow into the eventual Pro Bowl defender. His career year of 2016 saw him selected to his first Pro Bowl, and in that season he notched a career-high five interceptions while breaking up 11 passes and notching 52 tackles. He returned to the Pro Bowl in 2017, a year where he added two more interceptions to his resume.
But the past two seasons saw Rhodes fall off a cliff, even with his Pro Bowl selection this year. When Pro Football Focus named him a potential cut candidate back in January, their write-up outlined just how far he had fallen:
His decline began to rear its head in 2018, but this past season, it reached full-fledged free fall. 87 different cornerbacks saw 50 targets into their coverage in 2019, and none of them allowed a higher completion rate into their coverage than Rhodes did. His 84.3% completion rate allowed was the worst of that bunch by over 4%. Rhodes was never as dominant as the league-wide reputation that he commanded, but he regressed significantly to borderline unplayable this season.
So what makes Rhodes a redemption candidate? He still has some years ahead of him, as he turns 30 this summer. Another reason is somewhat schematic. Rhodes is at his best as more of a physical, press-man corner at the line of scrimmage. But some of his poor play these past two seasons has coincided with the Vikings playing more off-man coverage. In addition, the Vikings also played a lot of zone coverage last season. Rhodes is probably better suited to find a home in a team that relies heavily on Cover 1, and likes having their corners in press alignments, harassing the receivers as they come off the line of scrimmage.
Does that remind you of anyone? Perhaps a defensive-minded head coach who loves Cover 1 and also loves veteran reclamation projects?
Yeah, maybe that guy.
Breshad Perriman, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Selected 26th overall by the Baltimore Ravens in the 2015 NFL draft, Breshad Perriman has struggled to live up to that first round billing. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are his third stop in the NFL, and it is likely they will not be his last.
Perriman failed to consistently crack the starting lineup in Baltimore, starting just four games over his three years with the Ravens. He missed his entire rookie season after suffering a torn PCL on the first day of training camp. He appeared in all 16 games in 2016, starting one, and caught 33 passes for 499 yards and three touchdowns. In 2017 Perriman appeared in just 11 games, with three starts, and caught just ten passes on the year.
Perriman was released by the Ravens in September of 2018. He signed with the Washington Redskins a few weeks later, but was almost immediately waived. In October of 2018 the Cleveland Browns signed him, and he managed to contribute somewhat, catching 16 passes for 340 yards and two touchdowns.
However, when the Browns made waves last off-season by trading for Odell Beckham, Jr., that did not sit right with another WR they had just inked to a new contract. “Just hours” after signing Perriman to a one-year deal, the organization traded for Beckham. Irked by that, Perriman and his agent Drew Rosenhaus worked with then-Browns general manager John Dorsey to void the verbal agreement, and Perriman was suddenly a free agent.
Perriman signed a deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for one season, and last year was arguably his best season as a pro. He caught 36 passes (a career high) for 645 yards (a career high) and six touchdowns (also a career high).
Now he enters free agency, and with a great class coming up in the draft and some top-flight options available in free agency (such as Amari Cooper, Robby Anderson and A.J. Green) Perriman might be an afterthought yet again. But the way he ended his season might be a harbinger of what lies in store for him. He started the final three games of the season for the Bucs, and eclipsed 100 yards receiving in each contest, including a three-touchdown effort against the Detroit Lions in Week 15.
Bolstered by those final three games, and with evidence on tape of what he can truly bring to an offense, Perriman is perhaps a very solid option for teams looking to tap into the WR position on the secondary free agency market. A landing spot such as the Philadelphia Eagles might see him truly take off in 2020.
Trae Waynes, CB, Minnesota Vikings
Xavier Rhodes might not be the only defensive back leaving the Minnesota Vikings. Safety Anthony Harris will be an enticing option on the free agency market, and then there is Trae Waynes. Another first round selection by the Vikings, picked 11th overall in the 2015 NFL Draft, Waynes has endured a somewhat spotty time in the NFC North. Waynes, in fact, alluded to such recently on Instagram, posting an image of him and Rhodes with the caption “29 where we goin fam.”
Waynes was reportedly on the trading block last season, but the Vikings did not find a suitor and he remained in Minnesota for the 2019 campaign. He started 14 games for the Vikings, notching a single interception and eight pass breakups.
Similar to the discussion with Rhodes, Waynes also might be better suited for a more aggressive, man coverage scheme in the secondary. Prior to last season, PFF noted that “[i]n man coverage, Waynes has allowed a 55.6% catch rate and a passer rating of 68.0 en route to a 70.5 coverage grade. From a zone shell, Waynes has allowed a 63.6% catch rate and a 97.8 passer rating en route to a 53.7 coverage grade.” The Vikings were in zone coverage on 55% of their 2018 defensive snaps.
His man coverage prowess continued into 2019. Even with the low interception numbers, Waynes was at his best when in man technique, allowing just 71 yards receiving on 134 man coverage snaps according to PFF’s charting.
Moving to a scheme better suited for his man coverage abilities would put Waynes in a position to excel in 2020.
Nelson Agholor, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
I know exactly what you are thinking. Fear not, dear reader, what you crave is coming.
Nelson Agholor showed promise during his time at the University of Southern California, and that led to his first round selection in the 2015 Draft by the Philadelphia Eagles. But he has not exactly lived up to that draft slot, despite numerous opportunities in a fairly friendly offense. His 2019 campaign was plagued by drops, and while he only had three on the season, two came in a Sunday night affair against the Atlanta Falcons, at least one of which had the potential to truly change the outcome of that contest.
Don’t worry, it is coming.
His hands have been an issue since coming into the league. Agholor had four his rookie season, seven in 2016, five in 2017, four in 2018 and those three last season.
Okay, fine. Here it is:
That’s right. Agholor’s issues at the catch point led to the “most Philly soundbite” ever, with this hero at the scene of a fire taking a moment from relaying a story of how neighbors saved children from a burning building to burn the Eagles wide receiver.
But when you look back at the 2017 campaign, you see a blueprint for his next team to follow. That season he was moved into the slot, and he set career highs in receiving yards (935) and touchdowns (8), and the Philadelphia quarterbacks had a passer rating of 114.5 when targeting him. Last year he had 32 receptions out of the slot, for 305 yards and all three of his touchdowns, as well as 132 yards after the catch.
His struggles with drops have likely ended his time in Philadelphia, but he is still a very talented slot receiver. In today’s NFL with so many teams looking at 11 offensive personnel (one running back, one tight end and three wide receivers) as their base alignment, he can be a starting wide receiver for most NFL teams. A change of scenery and some talented WRs on the outside of him, and Agholor could be in position to really produce in 2020.
Eli Apple, CB, New Orleans Saints
A reuccuring theme with this piece is this: Former first round selections looking to finally put it together in the NFL. Eli Apple is another such player. Drafted tenth overall by the New York Giants in the 2016 NFL Draft, Apple never really made it work in the Big Apple (pun intended). He started 11 games as a rookie in 2016, including the last ten games of the season, and notched one interception and seven pass breakups.
He entered the 2017 campaign slotted as the team’s starting cornerback opposite Janoris Jenkins. But the season quickly went south. He was benched for the bulk of the Giants’ Week 5 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, and disciplinary reasons were cited. After struggling against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 10, he was a healthy scratch the next four weeks. While on the sideline during New York’s Week 14 loss to their rivals the Dallas Cowboys, Apple was firing off some Tweets during the game, which led to more discipline from the team. The situation got so precarious that Giants’ safety Landon Collins called him a “cancer” and argued that Apple should not even be on the roster in 2018.
Collins got his wish. Prior to the trading deadline in 2018, Apple was shipped to the New Orleans Saints for a fourth round pick in 2019 and a seventh round pick in 2020.
While in New Orleans, Apple has been more of a model citizen and solid cornerback option. He was almost perfect as a press coverage corner in 2019. According to charting data from Pro Football Focus, Apple’s 0.87 yards allowed per coverage snap in press during the 2019 season was 13th-best in the NFL. He has the size and length to be a true press cornerback in the NFL and with 4.4 speed, he can be the boundary type corner a defense builds its secondary around. He only turns 25 in training camp, so a team that is looking to build a press coverage defense and is willing to look past some of his red flags from his time in New York could be finding quite the diamond in the rough.
Phillip Dorsett, WR, New England Patriots
The 2019 campaign could have been so much different for Phillip Dorsett.
Through the first six weeks of the 2019 season Dorsett was almost a focal point of the New England Patriots’ offense. Despite missing New England’s Week 5 contest due to injury, the WR saw 27 targets through those five contests, pulling in 18 passes for 243 yards and four touchdowns.
Over the rest of the season, and into New England’s early exit from the playoffs, Dorsett saw just 31 more targets, with 15 receptions and a single touchdown.
Part of the dropoff was due to what was happening around the New England roster. Take Week 1 for example. During that Sunday night tilt against the Pittsburgh Steelers Dorsett was flanked by Josh Gordon and a healthy Julian Edelman. Then the Patriots added Antonio Brown to the roster for Week 2. What did this create? A lot of situations where Dorsett was lined up against the defense’s third or fourth cornerback.
But down the stretch, things obviously changed. Gordon was in Seattle with the Seahawks. Brown was…let’s just say he was pursuing other interests. Edelman was banged up and seeing double coverage on each snap. That pressed Dorsett into more of a WR2 role, and into less favorable matchups.
Then there was the fact that he never truly got onto the same page with Tom Brady. The “Brady Circle of Trust” is a real thing, and if you make a mistake as a wide receiver, you might find yourself outside looking in, like Squidward watching Spongebob and Patrick through the window:
This perhaps came to a head for Dorsett and another Patriots’ receiver during their loss to the Houston Texans. N’Keal Harry was banished to the sidelines after he failed to fight for the ball on a slant route and it turned into a Pick Six. Then, as broken down by Dan Orlovsky, Dorsett failed to get on the same page with Brady, and it led to frustration from the veteran quarterback:
As such, Dorsett is likely on his way out of town. but having just turned 27, he remains a viable option for a team looking for a WR who can play both in the slot and on the outside. Despite his struggles during the latter half of 2019, Dorsett does have that versatility. He saw 356 outside receiver snaps in 2019, and 191 snaps in the slot. A team that is going to use a high number of multiple receiver formations, such as the Arizona Cardinals, could use Dorsett as part of their 11 and even 10 personnel packages (one running back, four wide receivers and no tight ends) and get Dorsett some favorable matchups either on the boundary or in the slot. Those Cardinals, who used 10 personnel a league-high 205 times last season (they were the only team to use it more than nine percent of the time, running it on 26% of their snaps) could sure use some more wideouts.
Ronald Blair, DE, San Francisco 49ers
Some potential redemption projects arise due to injuries, and the next few names on this list are such players. One is Ronald Blair, the defensive end for the San Francisco 49ers. Blair was a Day Three selection by the 49ers back in the 2016 NFL Draft, when San Francisco picked him in the 5th round with the 142nd selection overall.
Blair has appeared in 47 games for the 49ers over the past four seasons, starting just two and being used primarily as a rotational pass rusher. But over the course of those four seasons, Blair has notched 13.5 sacks, including a career high in 2018 when he tallied 5.5. Blair has also been able to pressure the passer when called upon, and his 14 quarterback hits in 2018 were also a career-high.
Injuries have been an issue for Blair. In 2017 he missed ten games with a thumb injury, and his 2019 season was cut short when he tore his ACL back in November. Blair recently has started working out and seems on track to be ready for training camp, but the 49ers have a number of decisions to make regarding free agents along the defensive front. Arik Armstead, Damontre Moore, Anthony Zettel are all defensive ends who are up for free agency this season, and with Nick Bosa and Dee Ford also in the mix there are only so many DE spots to go around. If Blair does indeed find a new home, he can be counted on as a solid rotational option with the ability to collapse the pocket on passing downs.
Isaiah Crowell, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
Undrafted out of college, Isaiah Crowell signed with the Cleveland Browns as a free agent and appeared in 16 games each of his four years with the organization, from the 2014 season through the 2017 campaign. He started four contests for the Browns as a rookie, carrying the ball 148 times for 607 yards and eight touchdowns. He became the featured back in the Browns’ offense for the 2016 campaign, and started all 16 games for Cleveland, rushing for a career-high 952 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 4.8 yards per carry. He started all 16 games for the Browns again in 2017, rushing for 853 yards on 206 carries for a pair of scores.
He parlayed that success to a contract with the New York Jets, signing a three-year deal in March of 2018 worth $12 million dollars. As the season began he split time with Bilal Powell in the Jets’ backfield, and despite rushing for 102 yards in New York’s season opener against the Detroit Lions – and a franchise record 219 yards in a Week 5 victory over the Denver Broncos, he did not start for the Jets until Week 8. He suffered a toe injury during a Week 13 game against the Buffalo Bills, and was placed on injured reserve, ending his season.
Exactly a year after signing his deal with the Jets, the team released him, having acquired Le’Veon Bell via free agency.
Free to go elsewhere, Crowell signed with the Oakland (now Las Vegas) Raiders on a one-year deal. Unfortunately, he never saw the field for the Raiders, tearing his Achilles last April.
When healthy, Crowell has a very impressive blend of power, burst and vision as a ball carrier. While he is best suited as more of a downhill runner in a gap/power scheme, he can also function in a zone-blocking offense as he can make quick reads with his eyes, put his foot in the ground and make that “one cut and go” read that is necessary in such a blocking scheme. His record-setting day against the Broncos highlights what he brings to the table, including some impressive change-of-direction moments:
It is unlikely that a team would look to make him the featured back in their offense, but Crowell can immediately be a team’s number two back with the ability to contribute in both gap/power and zone running schemes. An ideal fit for him might be with the Buffalo Bills, where he can serve as the “thunder” to Devin Singletary’s “lightning.”
(Unless, of course, the ageless Frank Gore serves in that role once again).
Sean Davis, S, Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers seem to have moved on from Sean Davis, who was a second-round draft pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. Currently, the team has a pair of first-round picks slated as starters, with Terrell Edmunds and Minkah Fitzpatrick, acquired via trade last September.
Prior to those acquisitions, Davis was a starter at the back of the Steelers’ defense, and a very solid option at the safety spot. His best season for Pittsburgh was back in 2017, when he was used primarily as a strong safety down in the box. He notched 92 tackles, including seven for a loss, and also contributed a sack, a forced fumble, and three interceptions. He even began his career on the outside, playing cornerback for the Steelers as a rookie.
Pittsburgh moved him to free safety for the 2018 campaign, and while Steelers fans might not believe that is his best role, Davis certainly feels comfortable at the back of the defense. “I take pride in being the last line of defense,” David told the Tribune-Review back in 2018.
Davis missed all but the season opener last year, suffering a shoulder injury against the New England Patriots that put him on the shelf for the season. But his versatility might make him attractive to potential new teams, and that is something Davis likely understands. He addressed this last season, telling PennLive when asked about returning to a lineup with both Fitzpatrick and Edmunds “[o]bviously I’m a safety so I could compete for the safety spot wherever. But I’m also versatile. I can play a lot, they can create certain packages. So I’m down for that. I’m a competitor, so yeah, I really don’t know. But I’m pretty sure I’d find a way on the field.”
With the ability to play down in the box, as a single-high safety, or even as a boundary cornerback, Davis can fill a variety of roles for a new team. An organization looking for depth at any – or all – of those spots would be lucky to get him on the roster.
After ten years of practicing law in the Washington, D.C., area, Mark Schofield now dedicates his time to his first love: The game of football. The former college quarterback’s work has been featured a number of places, including The Washington Post, Bleacher Report, SB Nation, Pro Football Weekly and the Matt Waldman Rookie Scouting Portfolio.
