Well, here we are.
As Doug Farrar and I have worked through the various position groups, counting down the 11 best in the league at each position, I have often provided a long buildup to the list. Discussions of the position and how it has evolved over time, elaborated on what the position has meant historically, and even thrown in a dose of self-depricating humor.
Not for quarterback. There’s no buildup needed. Except to say this: The future of the position is in great hands, as this list will illustrate.
Also, in one change, there will be no “best position group” in this countdown. Backups matter, but we’re focused on the top guys.
More Top 11 lists: Slot defenders | Outside cornerbacks | Safeties | Linebackers | Edge defenders | Interior defensive linemen | Offensive tackles | Offensive guards | Centers | Outside Receivers | Slot receivers | Tight ends | Running backs
Honorable Mentions
This one had me sweating a bit, but then, a lifeboat from the content gods.
We put in place a 50% snap threshold, to perhaps serve as a bulwark against small sample sizes. It came into play when counting down the safety position, when Derwin James missed a bulk of the games due to injury, and the tight end position, and the 2019 absence of Rob Gronkowski.
It comes into play here with two quarterbacks at the outset: Ryan Tannehill and Matthew Stafford. Both quarterbacks fell short of that threshold, which spared me from some difficult decisions. Over the first half of the season – and over his career – Stafford has played at a level worthy of a list such as this. But rules are rules.
Then there is Tannehill. There is a strong case to be made, using advanced metrics such as Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt and Expected Completion Percentage, that Tannehill played better than any quarterback in the league last season. His ANY/A of 8.52 led the league, and the difference between his Completion Percentage and his Expected Completion Percentage – a full 8% – was also tops in the NFL. He, too, fell short of that 50% mark.
Ben Roethlisberger, a mainstay on lists like this over the past seasons, also fell short of that threshold.
Two players that did not fall short, but also missed out, but are on the outside looking in, are Philip Rivers and Jimmy Garoppolo. Rivers could find another boost to his career in a new environment, and Garoppolo could force his way onto such lists if he raises his level of play a bit in 2020.
Now, the Top 11.
11. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
And we. Are. Off.
As a writer I’ve crafted my share of “mea culpa” articles, and one of the most recent was a piece about the Minnesota Vikings passer. Kirk Cousins is viewed with skepticism in most of the NFL world, and I was among that group a season ago when I asked the question of him: “Baker or Chef?”
But then last season happened, and when viewed in the context of Cousins’ time in Minnesota, it was time for me to revisit him as a quarterback. Statistically, Cousins has been one of the better passers in the league over the past two years, and his ANY/A of 8.15 was seventh-best in the NFL. he also saw an increase of 5% from his expected Completion Percentage to his actual Completion Percentage, third-best in the league.
Play-action passing is where Cousins is at his best, and playing for Kevin Stefanski he found many such opportunities. Out of his 481 total dropbacks last season, 151 of those were on play-action plays. That accounted for a 31.4% mark, fifth-highest in the league. On those designs, Cousins led the way with a 129.2 NFL passer rating on play-action, tops in the NFL. He also posted averaged 9.7 Yards per Attempt on play-action, and threw for 14 touchdowns, tying Lamar Jackson for the league high.
But he also impressed when pressured. Cousins had an Adjusted Completion Percentage of 73.0% when under pressured, behind only Drew Brees and Derek Carr.
Stefanski is now in Cleveland, where he hopes to bring some of that to the Browns and Baker Mayfield. But stepping into his shoes is the veteran offensive mind Gary Kubiak, whose system is very similar conceptually to what Stefanski was calling for Cousins a season ago. Given this, you can expect a similar level of play from the veteran passer in 2020.
10. Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles
“The Duality of Man” is one of those Literature 101 themes, that crops up in a variety of works. Perhaps best displayed in Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, the theme stands for the proposition that humans are in essence both good and evil. That inside each of us is a struggle between our better angels and our more base instincts and desires.
Given the commonality of this theme, you can transpose it to allmost anything in life. Including football. Take the next quarterback on this list. Benjamin Solak, who in addition to the great work he does for The Draft Network, covers the Philadelphia Eagles for Bleeding Green Nation. In a piece from last September, titled “The Quarterback Who Never Says Die,” Solak tapped into the duality of Wentz, and how what makes him great, makes him flawed in a sense. Quoting at length from a masterful piece:
Carson Wentz again made such plays on Sunday night in a losing effort to the Atlanta Falcons, 24-20. He wore Vic Beasley on his back and welcomed a steamrolling Adrian Clayborn into his ribcage. Cameras tracked his walks to the sideline, his climbs up from the ground, his trip into the infamous blue tent. The box score remembers these plays as late-down conversions at key moments in the fight, but that is somehow not enough. It is not enough, and we all knew that as we watched Wentz peel himself off the turf, the cost of his valor exacted from his body, but not his will. Wentz’s heart dazzled the crowds as he braced it onto his sleeve, but the price of admission for the clinic on competitive toughness wasn’t paid by the people. It was paid by the quarterback.
This is the shadow that hangs, and with it comes a cold wind. How many more times can Wentz turn in a performance as he did last night? Not a performance characterized by endurance, which Wentz showed in spades as the team fought back; nor characterized by self-reliance and creativity, which the situation required, given the lack of offensive weapons at his disposal; but characterized by the lack of self-preservation, the regardlessness with which only a man possessed could offer himself to the game.
On that horizon, the cold wind that blows is Cam Newton, or rather the fraction of him that takes snaps for Carolina today. Large and fast and strong and adamantine, Newton heard the opening bell in 2011 and came out swinging; the league didn’t have an answer. He took the NFL three rounds and two Pro Bowls before he lost even a game to injury, and was back in Round 5 for a league MVP and Super Bowl berth. He broke 10 tackles for every rushing record he set, christened the QB sneak as the QB “there’s nothing sneaky about this, you just can’t stop it anyway.”
But they could stop it — not any one defense, but defenses as a whole. With every hit — several of them late, several of them on slides, many of them uncalled — the giant wheel of NFL misfortune spun, and eventually, Newton landed on red. His 2016 season was one of his worst as a passer, and in the offseason, he had surgery on his throwing shoulder. Two years later, and out routes flutter in the air before dying into the sideline; deep balls are cast like javelins and land with just as much accuracy. Newton took on the NFL, and attrition won.
That is the duality of Wentz. What makes him such a wonderful quarterback to watch, and what has earned the respect of those in the huddle with him, is what might lead to his “injury prone” tag, and the fear that we might never see what he could become in the NFL. This dates back to his days at North Dakota State. Watch one of the games that put him on the #DraftTwitter map, his junior year National Championship Game against Illinois State, and you will see moments that leave you in awe, and yet with the words of Sweet Lou Brown on your tongue. “Nice play Carson, don’t ever [bleeping] do it again.” A quarterback with that never-say-die attitude, who will run defenders over in the open field, and fight until the whistle, and even after.
What makes him great, that attitude and toughness, may result in unfulfilled potential.
Consider his 2017 season. In the midst of an MVP-caliber year, Wentz tucks the football and plows forward, diving for the end zone in a huge road game against the Los Angeles Rams. His touchdown plunge is called back due to a holding penalty, and Wentz returns to the huddle, every so often grabbing at his knee. Four plays later, he throws a touchdown pass.
He then limps to the locker room, with a torn ACL. Dream season over.
Never say die.
9. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Something tells me this piece will not get the same kind of run other lists have from our partners over at Packers Wire…
For years Aaron Rodgers has been my answer to this question: “If you needed one quarterback to make a throw with your life on the line, who would you trust?” I would imagine many now look to the kid in Kansas City as the answer to that question, but for a long stretch of time that player was Rodgers in my mind.
And yet, there is a case to be made that even though Rodgers is one of the most feared quarterbacks in the game and still a tremendous player, his best days are behind him. That starts with the numbers. After leading the NFL with an Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt of 8.65 back in 2014, Rodgers has struggled to keep that number north of 7.00 in the seasons since. His 6.71 mark from last season was good for 11th in the league, which was in line with his 6.96 mark of 2018, which was the tenth-best number in the league. Then there is Expected Completion Percentage. That number for Rodgers was 63.8%, which was higher than his actual Completion Percentage of 62%. That difference of -1.8% ranked Rodgers among such notables as Eli Manning, Marcus Mariota and Andy Dalton.
And yet, can you really in your heart count Rodgers out completely? Traits-wise, he remains an elite player. But the numbers have not backed that up recently. With the Packers and Matt LaFleur moving to a more San Francisco style of offense, with more 21 personnel usage and play-action, Rodgers could be in position to improve his productivity in the season ahead. While his play-action numbers were woeful in 2018, they did improve slightly in 2019, giving Packers fans cause for hope. But for now, he’s still one of the game’s best, but there are others we might trust more to make that one throw.
8. Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
As someone who grew up a New England Patriots fan, and then became lucky enough to cover them professionally, I thought a bright spot of Tom Brady’s departure for the NFC South was that I could avoid the inevitable “Tom Brady Battles” that pop up from time to time on the Twitter timeline. “Won’t be my problem anymore,” I would think to myself while dabbing the salty discharge around my eyes with the front of my #12 jersey. But enough about how I spend my Tuesday nights…
Unfortunately, this assignment was dropped on my desk so I’m wading back in.
Part of ranking Brady over Rodgers right now at this point in their respective Hall of Fame careers are these twin pillars of opinion: First, Brady is going to be playing with some of the best weapons he’s had at his disposal in years. A pair of the game’s best wideouts in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Two tremendous tight ends in O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate. Along with of course his old buddy in Rob Gronkowski. Second is this, and this fact cannot be understated: Brady is out to prove the world wrong.
Think about it. In addition to changing teams this offseason Brady started his own film production company. His choice of name? “199 Productions,” in homage to his draft slot back in 1999. To this day, with his status on the Mount Rushmore of quarterbacks solidified, Brady is still that sixth-round pick, forced to prove everyone wrong about him. This past season in New England was a tough one for the quarterback, as the speculation about his future and the endless questions, coupled with the team’s poor offensive performances, wore on him. Now in Tampa Bay, people might get a chance to decide who really was responsible for the run in New England: Brady or his head coach. Brady wants to make that answer known to the world.
As someone who has watched him for decades, I would not bet against him.
7. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
2019 was certainly a down year for both the Atlanta Falcons and their quarterback. After their 2016 season which ended in a Super Bowl loss, and saw Matt Ryan earn both Offensive Player of the Year and Most Valuable Player, Ryan’s numbers have trended downward over the past three years. In both 2017 and 2018 he posted identical ANY/A marks of 7.12 (down from his 2016 number of 9.03 which led the league) and in 2019 his ANY/A fell to 6.08, 19th in the league.
Part of this is due to the quarterback of course, and part is also due to the surroundings. Last year Ryan was sacked 48 times, tying him with Russell Wilson for the most in the league. He still performed well under duress, as his Adjusted Completion Percentage of 66.5% when pressured was eighth-best in the league, but those hits and that pressure takes a toll.
Still, Ryan is worth betting on. He continues to have one of the game’s best receivers at his disposal in Julio Jones. Calvin Ridley is an a solid number two across from Jones. Ryan still has the ability to quickly work through his reads and make smart, quick decisions with the football. He remains one of the game’s more accurate passers – bolstered by the difference of 1.4% between his Expected Completion Percentage and his actual Completion Percentage. And while he does not go deep often – just 9.1% of his throws last year were 20 yards or more – he is effective when he does. Ryan’s Adjusted Completion Percentage of 48.2% was fifth-best in the league.
6. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
That sound you hear is me being asked by my friend and colleague Michael Kist to submit my letter of resignation as the co-host of “The QB Factory,” a Philadelphia Eagles podcast. Well, we had a good run Mike…
But in my defense here, Dak Prescott played the game at an extremely high level last season. His ANY/A of 7.84 was sixth-best in the league. His Total QBR of 70.2 was fourth-best in the league. He threw 30 touchdowns for the first time in his career, and most impressive to me was the difference between his Completion Percentage (65.1%) and his Expected Completion Percentage (62.6%). That difference of 2.5% was fifth-best in the league, and for a quarterback who was knocked by some during his draft process and after – including by me – that is great to see. That is in line with what we have seen from him over the years, a quarterback with the competitive toughness to improve himself. It’s what put him in position to step into the Cowboys’ huddle as a rookie, replacing a team legend in Tony Romo, and be successful.
Now let’s think about the year ahead. Sure the quarterback and the team failed to come to terms on a long-term extension, but prior to that moment Prescott will get to throw to an incredibly talented trio of receivers in Michael Gallup, Amari Cooper and first-round pick CeeDee Lamb. He has Ezekiel Elliott in the backfield with him, one of the game’s more complete running backs. So Prescott has weapons to play with and a contract to play for.
Place your bets.
5. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
At this point in his career Drew Brees still checks many of the boxes you look for in a quarterback. It begins with his mind, as Brees resembles a computer on the field with how quickly he can diagnose a defense and make the right decision with the football. This has been a hallmark of his career, especially during his time playing in New Orleans under Sean Payton.
Another consistent mark of Brees is his accuracy and ball placement. Yes, the scheme does have something to do with his consistently impressive Completion Percentage, but that statistic is not a true measure of ball placement. Consider Next Gen Stats and their Expected Completion Percentage. Brees did lead the NFL in Completion Percentage in 2019, as he has every year since 2016, but his Expected Completion Percentage of 68% was well below his actual Completion Percentage of 74.3%. That difference of 6.3% was second-best in the league, behind only Ryan Tannehill.
Brees and the Saints agreed on a new two-year deal this offseason, but expectations are that this might be his final ride. To that end the Saints certainly added some talent for him, beginning with wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders. That gives him another weapon in addition to the impressive Michael Thomas on the outside, and of course tight end Jared Cook and running back Alvin Kamara. If this is indeed his last year in the league, Brees has a shot to make one last run at a title with these weapons.
4. Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
Some quarterbacks just have “it.”
For the record, “it” matters at the QB position. That ability to walk into a huddle and immediately command the attention and respect of the ten men looking back at you. That respect and attention is not given, it is earned, over months and years of hard word and leadership.
In his final college football game, on a third and long situation, Deshaun Watson pulled the football down and began to scramble. Short of the first down marker, he came face to face with Reuben Foster, Alabama’s star linebacker. Watson never flinched:
Foster may have won the battle, stopping Watson short of the first down marker, but the quarterback won the war, as Clemson knocked off the Crimson Tide.
Watson inspires those around him with plays like this, and it continues to this day in the NFL. As he has developed as a passer and a QB, Watson displays on a weekly basis the ability to beat teams both inside and outside of the pocket. Under his leadership, the Texans have made back-to-back playoff appearances and secured two-straight AFC South titles.
Of course, there are questions about what Bill O’Brien is putting around him, such as trading away DeAndre Hopkins, but there is potential with a wide receiver room that includes Brandin Cooks, Kenny Stills, Randall Cobb, Will Fuller V and Keke Coutee. Tight end Darren Fells was a productive weapon for the Texans a year ago, and perhaps David Johnson, acquired in the Hopkins trade, can rekindle some of his past magic. If those pieces come together, Houston can take a big step forward under the leadership of their young QB.
3. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Jackson was one of the most impressive players in all of football last season, and it earned him a Most Valuable Player award and the Baltimore Ravens the first overall seed in the AFC. Of course, for the second year in a row the Ravens saw their playoff hopes dashed at home, as the Tennessee Titans and Derrick Henry came into M&T Bank Stadium and ran all over Baltimore.
But in the run-up to that game Jackson showed why he is a dynamic talent at the quarterback position. Of course what he can do with the football in his hands as a runner is irreplaceable. However, that almost sells short what Jackson has done as a passer. He was a better pocket passer than he was given credit for coming out of Louisville, and that ability showed up on film and in the numbers last season. When kept clean in the pocket, Jackson posted an NFL passer rating of 118.5 last year, second only to Drew Brees. He also completed 70.9% of his throws from clean pockets for 2,476 yards and 26 touchdowns, against only four interceptions. When pressured? Jackson was just as good. He put up an NFL passer rating of 97.7 when under duress (second again to Brees) and his Adjusted Completion Percentage of 67.9% when pressured was sixth-best in the league.
Jackson can do everything you want from a modern quarterback. Now he just needs that first playoff win. Odds are he gets that done in 2020.
2. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
Russell Wilson is a magician behind the line of scrimmage. He is one of the best – if not the best – at creating under pressure, off of structure and outside of the pocket. Last year he was pressured on 243 snaps – second most in the league – and put up great-to-elite numbers in those situations. On those 243 pressured dropbacks, Wilson completed 85 of 168 passes for 1,217 yards and ten touchdowns, against just two interceptions. Those ten passing touchdowns tied him with Lamar Jackson, Sam Darnold, Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz and Gardner Minshew for the most in the league. Wilson’s 1,217 passing yards while pressured were fourth-best in the league. His completion percentage while pressured was ninth-best in the league, and his NFL passer rating was fifth-best in the league.
This is not a new phenomenon. Last season Wilson was sacked 51 times – third-most in the league – but again put up great-to-elite numbers when pressured. On his 202 pressured dropbacks Wilson completed 64 of 134 passes for 926 yards and ten touchdowns, against just three interceptions. His NFL passer rating when pressured of 86.2% was fifth-best in the league, and those ten touchdown passes when pressured placed him in the top spot.
But Wilson is also almost as good throwing from the pocket. According to charting date from Pro Football Focus, Wilson had an NFL passer rating of 109.6 from clean pockets last season, fifth-best in the league among qualified passers. His 26 passing touchdowns from clean pockets led the league.
Wilson is that rare breed of quarterback that can beat you from the pocket, but can be just as dangerous when pressured, or outside of the pocket. That makes for a darn good combination.
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
When you become the NFL’s first “half a billion” man, you come in atop a list like this. Patrick Mahomes, in just two years as a starting quarterback in the NFL, has both an MVP and a Super Bowl title. He can make any throw from any platform, and can find you anywhere on the field, even if he is not looking at you. He is a joy to watch every time he is on the field – even if he is playing against your team – and an easy pick for the top quarterback in the league heading into 2020.
But if you are not convinced, here is a link for you. This takes you to a YouTube search for “patrick mahomes best throws.” Spend some time there, and you’ll come away convinced.
