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Ben James

The new Wales World Cup pecking order as exits hit and one position decided already

Cory Hill became the fifth player to exit Wales' World Cup training squad prematurely, as 54 has quickly become 49.

The second-row has withdrawn from the squad to accept a club contract offer, following in the footsteps of Alun Wyn Jones, Justin Tipuric, Rhys Webb and Rhys Carre in leaving camp prior to the World Cup.

Jones, Tipuric and Webb all decided to call time on their international careers, while Carre was dropped for failing to meet individual performance targets.

No destination has been announced for Hill, but a move to France seems likely - given the Pro D2 season starts on August 18.

But how does the Wales pecking order look as the squad continues to shrink?

Full-back

Wales have dipped their toes into the water when it comes to trying other options in the 15 jersey in the last year or so, with the likes of Josh Adams and Louis Rees-Zammit being given minutes there.

Adams has previous experience in the position during his time at Worcester and could still be an option there. The consensus on Rees-Zammit though, after his start against France in the Six Nations, was that his talents were wasted there.

Liam Williams is still likely the first-choice option - despite a tricky Six Nations. Leigh Halfpenny, despite his club future not being resolved after leaving the Scarlets, is still in the mix at the age of 34.

Further back, it will be interesting to see where Tom Rogers and Cai Evans are in the mix. Almost certainly one of them will drop out of the squad when Gatland makes his first round of cuts.

It's possible that would be Evans, with Rogers having perhaps a higher ceiling as an attacking full-back, but it will all depend on how he fares in training.

Winger

Moving onto wing and two of the options tried at full-back, Adams and Rees-Zammit, are the first choices. Even with Adams not quite being at his best during the Six Nations, he's a world-class finisher.

Rio Dyer isn't a million miles behind either of them, after an impressive start to life in Test rugby and it's not out of the question that he'll get a starting role in France - particularly if either Adams or Rees-Zammit continues at full-back.

Alex Cuthbert has also enjoyed a fine revival in Test rugby after years in the wilderness. If it's the case that only three out-and-out wingers go to France, he might just miss out - although Gatland does know what he offers.

Beyond those four, the likes of Williams and George North were used as wingers the last time Gatland was in charge, but those days seem to have passed. Rogers could also be considered as an option out wide if there wasn't enough trust in the two-cap international to be a Test full-back.

Outside centre

When it comes to the pecking order, most positions are relatively simple to draw up a likely hierarchy - even with how often the Wales team changed during Gatland's first Six Nations back.

But, midfield is a tricky one to determine. Starting at outside centre, North had long been Wayne Pivac's go-to, but Mason Grady burst onto the scene during the Six Nations and is now pushing for a starting role.

North finished the tournament well in France, while Grady has yet to really show what he can do on the Test scene, so the Lions star might still be ahead on that front.

Poll: How far will Wales go at the World Cup? Have your say here or below

But Grady's youth could be a tempting one for Gatland as he looks to turn things around.

Joe Roberts has enjoyed an impressive season, being a constant in the Scarlets midfield. However, it might be a World Cup too soon - especially with the likes of Nick Tompkins and Keiran Williams also capable of playing outside centre.

Inside centre

Joe Hawkins' unavailability throws an immediate spanner in the works after he appeared to nail down the 12 jersey earlier this year.

Tompkins, even after a frustrating Six Nations largely spent out of the side, is perhaps the safest bet when it comes to selection now Hawkins is no longer in the picture, with Johnny Williams a little further behind given injuries have tended to stop him breaking onto the Test scene.

In an ideal world, Keiran Williams would have been capped during the Six Nations, given he's arguably been the form centre in Wales this season. It didn't happen, but you'd think he's still well-placed to push for a squad place given he's the type of direct carrier Wales need.

The same can be said for Max Llewellyn, with the Gloucester-bound centre the type of player you'd pick if trying to describe Gatland's ideal midfielder. He's rangy, physical and has an eye for sharp angles.

Fly-half

Dan Biggar has long been the number one, but fly-half could develop into an interesting battle this summer given the various subplots.

With his vast experience and tactical nous, Biggar offers something different to the other three fly-halves in the squad so his place in the 33-man squad is likely assured.

What Gatland does with the other three though could be fascinating. For starters, does he go two fly-halves like in Japan last time or three?

Gareth Anscombe was the man he wanted to start four years ago, only for injury to strike. The Wales coach made no secret of Anscombe being the one player he missed and some more soundbites at the turn of the year suggest that, even after a full World Cup cycle, he might want to still revive that plan from 2019.

Also, the fact he can play full-back means he's almost certain of heading to France.

Owen Williams was perhaps the feel-good story of the year in Welsh rugby, going from being unemployed after Worcester's collapse to starting for Wales in the Six Nations. He's a fine Test player and his ability to play 12 only strengthens his cause.

Gatland previously said he wouldn't be considered in midfield, but that was before he lost a playmaker in Hawkins to the 25-cap rule.

Sam Costelow is the one to watch. The exciting Scarlets fly-half has long been tipped for a big future in the game.

Gatland has alluded to the fact that this Wales team hadn't brought enough youth through in the last cycle before now, with the Wales coach understood to have wished Costelow had been exposed more to Test rugby.

There was a suggestion he thought it might have been a bit late for the Scarlets fly-half to establish himself before France, but he'll surely get every chance possible to do so this summer.

Scrum-half

Unless Gatland opts to bring fewer than three scrum-halves to France, then Rhys Webb's Test retirement means the remaining half-backs can already book their plane tickets.

Tomos Williams is surely the first choice, while Kieran Hardy has proven himself to be the tactical option when a kicking nine is needed.

As for Gareth Davies, he enjoyed a revival in west Wales this season - prompting his recall.

Loose-head prop

Carre's departure simplifies things a little. Now, it's two relatively experienced players and two new faces.

Gareth Thomas and Nicky Smith are the former and both seem likely to make the squad. Then it's up to uncapped duo Kemsley Mathias and Corey Domachowski to battle it out for the third spot.

Hooker

Ken Owens captained Wales during the Six Nations, but will he carry on as skipper at the World Cup? Perhaps not, as his place in the side isn't as safe as it was earlier this year.

Dewi Lake is back from injury and the two seem likely to battle it out for the starting jersey, with the one who misses out the bench option.

It's then between Ryan Elias and Elliot Dee to be third choice.

Tight-head prop

There's five in contention for tight-head spots, meaning it's likely one will depart before Switzerland before another is released ahead of the actual tournament in France.

Even with Tomas Francis and Dillon Lewis both leaving Welsh rugby, they're still likely safe. You can't say that for certain though, with Montpellier prop Henry Thomas having been picked by Gatland for a reason.

It's feasible he might push ahead at least one of them, leaving them vulnerable were another of the uncapped players to make an impact this summer. We saw similar when Rob Evans and Samson Lee missed out in 2019.

Cardiff youngster Will Davies-King seems the best bet to leave camp first, with Arms Park team-mate Keiron Assiratti perhaps also missing out on France.

Second-row

With Jones and Hill out of the picture, you've certainly got more chance of getting the second-row predictions right.

You'd suspect Adam Beard and Will Rowlands will pick up where they left off as first choice before the latter's injury, while Dafydd Jenkins feels like the next cab off the rank.

Incredibly, Ben Carter is the third-most experienced second-row in the squad now - with just nine caps - but young Ospreys lock Rhys Davies is probably ahead of him after a couple of appearances in the Six Nations.

Quite where Christ Tshiunza sits is a hard one to work out, given he wasn't involved for the trip to Italy and France at the end of the Six Nations. On that basis, maybe - in terms of second-row at least - he sits behind Beard, Rowlands, Jenkins and Davies, but ahead of Carter and Cardiff's Teddy Williams.

It's anyone's guess though, with Gatland seemingly not as enthusiastic as Pivac was about the Exeter man.

Christ Tshiunza (Exeter Chiefs - 5 caps), Teddy Williams (Cardiff Rugby - uncapped), Taine Basham (Dragons - 11 caps), Taulupe Faletau (Cardiff Rugby - 100 caps), Dan Lydiate (Ospreys - 68 caps), Josh Macleod (Scarlets - 2 caps), Jac Morgan (Ospreys - 9 caps), Tommy Reffell (Leicester Tigers - 9 caps), Aaron Wainwright (Dragons - 37 caps).

Blindside flanker

Obviously, the thing with Tshiunza is he can feature on the blindside as well. But again, where is he in the pecking order on that front?

Pivac's reign often consisted of coaches speaking of the value of a second-row/back-row hybrid at six, with Tshiunza the ideal candidate, but he's probably not first choice.

Jac Morgan operated there at times during the Six Nations, with the sense that you need to find somewhere in your back-row for the Osprey regardless. Aaron Wainwright also did a good job there against France and is someone Gatland likes after a few years of being shifted around.

Dan Lydiate never fails to do what is asked of him and Gatland might turn once again to the chop-tackling mid Walian. Josh Macleod is a versatile back-row who can play all three positions and could be a dark horse for the six jersey, while Taine Basham's explosive physicality could see Gatland try him on the blindside.

Openside flanker

The seven jersey obviously depends on what happens with the six. If Morgan starts on the blindside, then Tommy Reffell is your man following Tipuric's retirement.

But if Gatland wants someone else on the blindside, then Morgan is a strong contender for the seven jersey.

Beyond them, Basham and Macleod are options - even if the former probably doesn't fit the traditional openside mould like the other three.

No. 8

Taulupe Faletau will be Wales' No. 8 at the World Cup, all things like fitness being well. You won't win many prizes for that prediction.

Beyond him, there's not many options at the back of the scrum. Morgan packed down there during the Six Nations, while Wainwright had been groomed for the role for a while before that move was abandoned.

Macleod is also an option there.

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