Amid rumblings of tensions in Australia’s main opposition since the 2025 election wipeout, the Nationals have now confirmed they’re pulling the plug on the long-standing National-Liberal coalition. It’s the first time the coalition have split in nearly four decades (translation: since the 1980s), with Nationals leader David Littleproud describing the move as “one of the hardest political decisions” of his life.
“[The Liberal Party] are going on a journey of rediscovery, and this will provide them the opportunity to do that without the spectre of the National Party imposing their will, but setting clear boundaries and parameters about what’s important to us,” he told reporters on Tuesday.
For young Aussies, who’ve only really known the parties as a coalition during their lifetime, this development is bound to feel like a significant shift in the political landscape. So, what does this split mean and where do we go from here? We break it down.
Why did the Nationals leave the Coalition?
First thing’s first, why did the Nationals decide to make this major move? Much of it is because Littleproud and the new Liberal leader, Sussan Ley, couldn’t get on the same page on policy direction.
The Nationals, a minor party, has stood firm on wanting to retain four key policies. This includes staying committed to nuclear energy (which, BTW, moderate Liberal in inner city seats have now called to be dumped); divestiture powers to break up the big supermarkets; better standards for regional communications; and a $20 billion proposed regional Australian future fund.
The Nationals sought to have this locked in exchange for a formal agreement with the Liberals. But Ley, who’s ruled out “captain’s calls” as the new leader, has promised a wide-ranging policy review with consultation across the party.
“It’s on a principled position of making sure that those hard-fought [policy] wins are maintained and respected and we continue to look forward,” Littleproud told reporters on Tuesday.
“We wanted to look forward and not have to look back and have to continue to fight for another three years.”
He’s also denied the Nationals were a drag on the Liberal vote in the inner cities, pointing out their policies were popular, especially in their regional seats. Other Liberal policies (*ahem* like that ol’ switcheroo with public sector work-from-home arrangements) were “electoral poison”, he said, per AAP.
What does this mean in the government?
Fair question! And to be honest, everyone’s still trying to figure out where we go from here once the dust settles.
We do know things will look a little different in Parliament House this term. There won’t be any Nationals leaders in the ministry, meaning there’s seven shadow cabinet positions and two outer shadow ministry positions to be filled by the Liberal party. Plus, according to the Australian Financial Review, a Nationals MP who loses a shadow ministry is expected to lose up to $58,415 a year in salary.
It also means the Nationals’ 15 elected MPs and four senators will be a minor party in this next term, all sitting on the backbench. Think of it like being on a team, but not in the starting line-up. They won’t hold ministerial or shadow roles, but they can still participate in debates, vote on legislation, and represent their electorates.
The party will now make its own policy decisions, and Littleproud’s already flagged the Nationals will field their own roster of spokespeople to speak on government decisions.
Given Labor’s thumping victory at the last election, the dissolving of the coalition is likely to put Labor in an even stronger position over the next three years. The Liberals hold less than 30 of the 150 Lower House seats, while the Nationals hold just 15. In contrast, Labor will likely have 94 lower house MPs.
Some political pundits have signalled there could be greater instability within the Liberals moving forward from the break-up, given the party’s pretty narrowly balanced with the conservatives on one side and moderates and centrists on the other.
Could the Nationals and Liberal Party get back together?
Is the coalition officially donezo? Let’s just say they’re open to the possibility of coming back together, and it’s giving real ~keeping the door open~ energy.
“We have had a coalition of over 80 years and I suspect we will have one in the future. It has been broken before. What this is about is taking a deep breath and saying to the Australian people, this is time apart [for] us to be better,” Littleproud said, as reported by The Guardian.
“This is a healthy part of our democracy which should be proud of.”
Deputy Nationals leader Kevin Hogan described the partnership as a couple that had broken up but hoped to get back together.
“Very often, more often than not, you get back together and join back together with clearer clarity and focus on what the relationship was about and when you get back together, how it is going to work even better,” he said.
Former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce also told The Guardian it was healthy for the two parties to split for a period of time.
“That election was not good. It was not good for the Liberal party and it was not good for the National party,” he said.
Plus, the split isn’t too dissimilar to tensions being seen within conservative parties overseas, Joyce pointed out.
“This is not just happening in Australia, this is happening globally. Take [Reform UK leader] Nigel Farage and the Conservative party, or the MAGA movement and Donald Trump in the United States. It is a global phenomenon.”
So what’s next? In the near future, we know Liberal leader Ley is expected to make a statement after Liberal MPs’ online party room meeting on Tuesday. But as for the next three years, it’s looking like some pretty unchartered waters for Australia’s opposition.
Lead image: Getty
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