In the continental debate about Brexit, the positions of France, of the European commission and of the European parliament are shaped by federalism, as well as the position of Germany’s SPD, junior partner of Merkel’s CDU.
German foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, economy minister, Sigmar Gabriel, and Martin Schulz, president of the European parliament, are all potential SPD candidates to run against Merkel in the elections next years.
The party is keen to distinguish itself from the chancellor. The SPD has taken hardline positions on Brexit. Together with French foreign minister, Jean-Marc Ayrault, Steinmeier has already started a push for “political union”.
But while federalists are the most prominent voices, another camp has gained ground, especially among newer EU members in the north and the east – the pragmatists. They don’t share the goal of “ever closer union” and don’t see themselves as builders of the “United States of Europe”. For pragmatists, the EU is an instrument of nation states, with the capitals in the driving seat. Pragmatists want the EU to succeed as a joint market and as an instrument of institutionalised co-operation of nation states and they aren’t dogmatic about the means. They want to get things done. Unlike federalists, pragmatists don’t have a clear vision. They are often on the centre-right while federalists are often on the centre-left side of the political spectrum. The German chancellor, Angela Merkel, is a pragmatist; the president of the European Council, Donald Tusk, who is managing the meetings of EU leaders, is another one.
The first reaction of pragmatists to the Brexit vote was: “Let’s wait and see.” Pragmatists wanted to give Britain time to sort things out first, perhaps finding ways to stay in the EU or at least keeping Britain as close as possible to the EU. But their stance quickly hardened. After the meeting of EU leaders, Tusk said that they “made it crystal clear today that access to the single market requires acceptance of all four freedoms, including the freedom of movement. There will be no single market à la carte.”
On balance, EU leaders are more concerned with the integrity of the EU than they are worried about Brexit. That’s why pragmatists such as Merkel sided with federalist-minded leaders such as Hollande. Instead of taking a break and seeing the British vote as a wake-up call to rethink the whole project, leaders were rallying around the federalist view, considering Brexit as a done deal and sending a tough message to London. There is regret over the British vote, but not much effort to build bridges.
The deeper reason for the EU-27’s tough reaction is the growth of a third camp – the nationalists. The big fear is contagion: that an anti-EU mood could gain traction if the UK gets a good deal. The nightmare of having referendums at home has led EU leaders to take a hardline position, out of concern about the corrosive effects of Brexit on European integration. But a hard line against Britain may also backfire. It may alienate Britain-friendly pragmatists and move them closer to the anti-EU camp. It will be important for EU leaders to strike the right balance in the months to come.
Ulrich Speck is a foreign policy analyst based in Heidelberg and Berlin
