Tonight at the O2 Arena in London, Dermot O’Leary hosts the only TV awards ceremony voted for by the public: the National Television Awards. Whether that means the NTAs are more valid than the snooty Baftas, or a waste of time because ratings already tell us what’s popular, is up to you. Either way, everyone nominated in this, the NTAs’ 21st year, wants to win … but who will? And in the spirit of every awards ceremony being an excuse for an argument, who should win?
Comedy
Will win: Peter Kay’s Car Share
Should win: Peter Kay’s Car Share
Kay’s remarkable comeback, the sunny but finely judged two-hander Car Share, should walk a weak category that’s missing the winner from the past three fecking years, Mrs Brown’s Boys. Car Share was a mainstream, primetime hit on BBC1 that had, in its portrayal of two carpooling colleagues (Kay and Sian Gibson), subtle romance beneath the broad, crowd-pleasing gags. A talent we thought we might have lost returned in triumph.
Also nominated: Birds of a Feather, Benidorm, Not Going Out.
Drama
Will win: Downton Abbey
Should win: Doctor Who
The satisfyingly box-ticking finale of Julian Fellowes’s Sunday-night fondue will probably see it sneak home. Downton won this in 2012, 2013 and 2015. But should the show that interrupted the run, Doctor Who, come back for another upset? Last year it got over a rocky start and some chat about falling ratings to deliver a quietly superb series of episodes, with Peter Capaldi on ace form.
Also nominated: Broadchurch, Casualty
New drama
Will win: Poldark
Should win: Poldark
T’int right, t’int fair, t’int proper, t’int just. Is what we’ll say if the Beeb’s barnstorming tale of romance, skulduggery and the economics of the 18th-century tin industry doesn’t win here. It’s a tough category, though: Doctor Foster gained momentum, Broadchurch-style, through its run and Humans was a cracker, albeit not with the ratings muscle to trouble the big two.
Also nominated: Ordinary Lies
Entertainment programme
Will win: I’m a Celebrity… Get Me out of Here!
Should win: Ant & Dec’s Saturday Night Takeaway
IACGMOOH wins an NTA every year and probably will again, fuelled by the antics of self-proclaimed countess Lady Colin Campbell. NTA kings Ant & Dec have a second horse in the race with the consistently excellent Saturday Night Takeaway. Unless 2016 continues its bid to be the most depressing cultural year ever by giving Celebrity Juice a prize, this one’s on its way to their mantelpiece(s).
Also nominated: The Graham Norton Show
Talent show
Will win: Strictly Come Dancing
Should win: Strictly Come Dancing
The X Factor imploded in 2015: it would be odd and embarrassing for ITV if a show that looks terminally ailing is named the best in its genre by a public that increasingly refuses to watch it. The way is clear, then, for a strong Strictly to make it three wins in four years.
Also nominated: The Voice, Britain’s Got Talent
TV presenter
Will win: Ant & Dec
Should win: Mel & Sue
The running joke at the NTAs: Ant & Dec always win. The last time they didn’t, Tony Blair was prime minister and the NTA talk show prize was a fight between Parky and Des O’Connor. It was ages ago. However, their category is usually called “Entertainment presenter” and involves the perky Geordies effortlessly murdering Keith Lemon and Dermot O’Leary. Now it’s rebranded as simply “TV presenter”: enter the mighty Mel & Sue, brimful of confidence and cake after Bake Off’s best series ever.
Also nominated: Rylan Clark-Neal, Graham Norton
Drama performance
Will win: Aidan Turner, Poldark
Should win: Aidan Turner, Poldark
Mighty 2015 winner Sheridan Smith is a nominee again here: Britain adores her, but it didn’t adore her stodgy ITV drama Black Work. David Tennant fans might also not rouse themselves to vote for him in Broadchurch series two. That leaves Aidan Turner to gallop home for his broody, musky turn in Poldark. If the NTAs are about capturing the imagination of the ordinary telly-guzzler, Turner’s the one.
Also nominated: Suranne Jones (Doctor Foster)
International
Will win: Game of Thrones
Should win: Game of Thrones
Which is better: Game of Thrones or The Big Bang Theory? Finally we have an answer, as the NTAs’ most incongruous pairing duke it out. It’s an interesting test of how far Thrones’s appeal has travelled: people who like it, love it, and in 2015 it was as ruthless and gossip-worthy as ever. But there are still hordes of punters who don’t have Sky and haven’t bothered with the box set. Could Big Bang’s vehement fandom spring a surprise? Probably not.
Also nominated: Orange Is The New Black
Daytime
Will win: The Chase
Should win: Pointless
The NTAs’ desire to constantly rejig its categories means super-heavyweight daytime champ This Morning now resides in the new “Live magazine show” shortlist. Richard Osman and Alexander Armstrong are in with a shout, then, although The Chase is not far behind Pointless in the teatime cult stakes and might have a bit more support among NTA voters.
Also nominated: The Jeremy Kyle Show, The Paul O’Grady Show
Challenge show
Will win: The Great British Bake Off
Should win: The Great British Bake Off
With higher ratings than ever and perhaps the most popular winner ever in Nadiya Hussain, the cheering and unifying GBBO deserves every gong it gets and is untouchable here. The other nominees are either ageing stalwarts or, in the case of Bear Grylls: Mission Survive, a show most voters will have to do a quick Google to remember.
Also nominated: MasterChef, The Apprentice
Live magazine show
Will win: This Morning
Should win: This Morning
Penny Lancaster’s never-ending question to Sarah Harding last week (brace yourself, then search for it on YouTube) was a strong start to Loose Women’s campaign for the 2017 prize. This year, though, This Morning must be miles ahead of its ITV sister. The Beeb’s efforts in this area remain stiff and cheesy.
Also nominated: BBC Breakfast, The One Show
Serial drama
Will win: Coronation Street
Should win: EastEnders
Flip a coin: Corrie or EastEnders? It’s Coronation Street’s turn, and it’s won more often of late. Easties, though, had the better big events in its 30th anniversary year, climaxing with the reveal of who killed Lucy Beale.
Also nominated: Emmerdale, Hollyoaks
Factual entertainment
Will win: Gogglebox
Should win: Gogglebox
Last year Gogglebox triumphed over Top Gear, and the appeal of C4’s review show has only grown since then. Meanwhile, Top Gear as we know it no longer exists. Unless Jeremy Clarkson’s army of men’s rights activists can organise themselves to leave a mischievous turd in the NTAs’ buffet, the sofa-bound critics have it.
Also nominated: DIY SOS: The Big Build, Paul O’Grady: For the Love of Dogs
The National Television Awards, 7.30pm ITV on Wednesday.
