Every year, when the NFL schedule comes out, there are many aspects to look at and enjoy. One of those aspects is how different teams, some with new coaches and all with new key players via free agency and the draft, will match up in a schematic sense. Game plans change, playbooks are discarded and replaced or considered and expanded, young players are asked to do more than they did last season, still younger players are asked to fit their new certainties, and veterans in new spots are working virtually to take their attributes and fit them to their new surroundings.
With that in mind, here are the most intriguing schematic matchups of the 2020 NFL season:
Week 1: Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Some of the reasons these games are going to be fascinating to watch from a schematic perspective is to track how new players are going to be utilized in new environments. Especially some of the incoming rookie class. That leads us to Isaiah Simmons, the do-it-all defender who was drafted eighth overall by the Arizona Cardinals. Last year Simmons was used all over the field in Brent Venables’ 3-1-7 defensive package, and he saw over 100 snaps at the following spots on the field: Free safety, box safety, defensive line (which Pro Football Focus defines as down on the line of scrimmage, even when covering a tight end), and slot cornerback.
After drafting Simmons, Arizona defensive coordinator Vance Joseph had this to say about their newest defender:
His skill set is out of this world. He’s a guy that can solve problems for us, and with his speed and length, he can be an eraser when bad plays happen. The more speed you have, the more guys who can erase bad plays for you on Sundays, it’s always important pieces.
Joseph continued on to highlight what Simmons brings to the table as a potential pass-rusher:
I’ve seen him pass-rush and, obviously, when you’re a blitzer, you have to have some kind of pass-rushing technique. Because if they have a blocker for you — which, in this league, they probably will most of the time — you have to have some technique to make moves and flip the hips to be a pass-rusher. I’ve seen him do that. I’ve also seen him rush when he’s clean, and if a quarterback stands in a pocket clean, I mean, he can finish on quarterbacks.
I’ve seen him also beat backs and tight ends one to one as a pass-rusher, so he’s both. I mean, when you’re that tall and long with that kind of burst, being a blitzer or pass-rusher, it’s kind of one and the same.
Then Joseph waded into what makes Simmons perhaps the prototypical modern defender: His versatility. In today’s NFL, offensive coordinators are trying to design plays and situations that create mismatches, and then exploit them. Throwing out of heavy personnel packages, running out of lighter personnel packages, and using mismatch type players like the George Kittles of the world are a way to accomplish this goal. Joseph pointed directly at Kittle and the San Francisco 49ers to make this point: “We can have a package there where he can walk down over Kittle and then be a strong safety, so with this kid’s skill set, he can do a lot of things.”
As luck would have it, that is exactly who the Cardinals face in their season-opener: Kittle and the San Francisco 49ers.
Kyle Shanahan is exactly the type of offensive mind that Simmons was drafted to help stop. Last season, for example, the 49ers used 21 offensive personnel (two running backs, two wide receivers, one tight end) on 33% of their offensive snaps, the highest percentage of any team in the league. But they often used this package to throw, and San Francisco averaged 9.9 yards per attempt when throwing out of 21 personnel, far above the 7.4 yards per attempt they averaged when throwing out of 11 personnel, the three-receiver package that has become almost a base look for most teams.
How were they able to do this? Because with Kittle and fullback/H-Back Kyle Jusczyck, they can create mismatches with those players on linebackers. What can Simmons do? Use his 4.4 speed to erase such mismatches, exactly what Joseph alluded to in his post-draft discussion.
That is why this Week 1 matchup is a game to watch.
Week 1: Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
On the offensive side of the football, there is a similar Swiss Army knife type of player that will be unveiled in Week 1: former Colorado Buffalo Laviska Shenault.
Shenault tumbled in the draft, falling to the Jacksonville Jaguars in the second round. He was viewed as a potential first-round selection, but a sports hernia injury that hampered him at the Combine and required surgery (coupled with some other injury questions from his past) likely contributed to his fall.
When healthy, Shenault is an offensive weapon, perhaps without a specific offensive position. Colorado used him all over the field, aligning him in the slot, on the boundary, at tight end, in the wing, at running back and even at quarterback. He did most of his work out of the slot, but the Buffaloes continued to find ways to get him the football.
Shenault actually tapped into that potential versatility in a pre-draft pitch to all 32 teams. In a piece he penned for The Players’ Tribune he closed with the following statement: “I feel like I’m a combination of three different receivers — Jarvis Landry, Julio Jones and Larry Fitzgerald.”
His new head coach Doug Marrone seems to agree.
You can put him in the backfield. He can play Wildcat. You can put him as the F tight end. You can do a lot of things with him. You see it on his tape in 2018 and 2019. That’s one of the things we looked at.
We went back there and I said [to Shenault], ‘Look, we can do all those things but the whole key is going to be how well you grasp it, how well you pick it up.’ Because if he can, make no mistake about it, we want to be able to do those things.
Against the Indianapolis Colts on the opening weekend, we’ll get a chance to see how the Jaguars intend to use their versatile new weapon.
Week 2: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
A fascinating undercurrent to every draft season is observing how teams are reacting to what their rivals are doing, on either side of the football. This year the AFC East gives us one perfect example of a team looking at what their competition is doing, and trying to come up with an answer in real time.
Take the Buffalo Bills. In an effort to aid the continued development of quarterback Josh Allen they traded for wide receiver Stefon Diggs. This gives the Bills and their young quarterback a solid trio of receivers for their 11 personnel package. You start with Diggs, a play-making threat that is dangerous in the downfield game. Then you add John Brown, a speedy receiver that can be used at all levels of the field. Finally you add Cole Beasley, an extremely difficult player to cover out of the slot.
Now look at what the Dolphins have done this offseason.
They added, around the time of the Diggs trade, cornerback Byron Jones to their secondary. That gives them the highest-paid CB tandem in the league, between Jones and Xavien Howard. But two great defensive backs cannot cover three talented receivers on their own, so they were not done adding to their secondary. With their final pick in the first round, they added athletic Auburn cornerback Noah Igbinoghene. Now, they might have an answer for a team’s three wide receiver package, and their first test will be in Week 2, against the Bills’ trio.
During his time in New England working with Bill Belichick, Brian Flores observed how the defensive genius would play matchups with his cornerbacks, depending on the skillsets of the opposing offensive weapons. One week you might see Stephon Gilmore locking up Amari Cooper, and the next you might see him covering Zach Ertz. With these three cornerbacks, Flores has the opportunity to play a similar game each week, and the Buffalo matchup is a perfect chance to do just that.
(Early guess? Howard on Diggs, Jones on Brown and Igbinoghene on Beasley).
Week 2: Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The “Rise of Burrow” grabbed the lion’s share of the headlines. Over the past calendar month Joe Burrow went from a potential Day Three afterthought in the draft to the first overall selection. Along the way, the senior quarterback added to his trophy case, securing both a Heisman Trophy and a National Championship.
But along with Burrow came another rise, the rise of Joe Brady from LSU’s passing game coordinator to a highly-coveted offensive coordinator candidate. LSU wanted to keep Brady in the fold, but when the NFL came calling, the young offensive mind headed to the next level, taking an OC job with the Carolina Panthers.
While at LSU, Brady installed a modern version of the West Coast offense, heavily influenced by Brady’s time in New Orleans with the Saints and Sean Payton. LSU could be running traditional West Coast concepts, but dressed up for the modern game with Air Raid elements, spread and empty formations, and run/pass option variations.
Now we get to see how that offense will look in the NFL under the stewardship of Teddy Bridgewater, who also spent time in New Orleans with Brady and the Saints. Their Week 2 game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be a fascinating game to watch. Lost in the 2019 Tampa Bay season – and the moves the organization made in the offseason – is that the Buccaneers’ defense was quietly becoming one of the better units in the game at the end of last year.
At Football Outsiders they track defensive DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). For the 2018 season, Tampa Bay was last in the league in this statistic. But by the end of the season, their defensive DVOA climbed to -11.5%, placing them fifth in the league. And their weighted defensive DVOA (which places an emphasis on recent performance) of -17.2% actually had them third in the league.
So this game will be a fascinating test of Brady’s system in the league, against a defense that was much better than it was given credit for a season ago.
Week 4: Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys
We will get chances earlier in the season to see how Kevin Stefanski’s offense is going to look in Cleveland with Baker Mayfield. This offseason the Cleveland Browns made a number of acquisitions to mold their 2020 offense around a model of what Stefanski had last season with the Minnesota Vikings. They added tight end Austin Hooper and even fullback Andy Janovich, A season ago, the Vikings were a run-heavy, play-action dependent team, and it propelled Kirk Cousins to a very efficient season, and the Vikings into the playoffs.
That is the model Stefanski is looking to implement in Cleveland. A play-action heavy team that uses a lot of 12 personnel like he did a season ago.
The Dallas Cowboys game is going to be perhaps an ideal test for how this offense will fare over the course of the season. The Cowboys have two impressive linebackers on the second level of their defense in Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch. They also added two intriguing pieces to their secondary this offseason, acquiring Ha Ha Clinton-Dix at the safety spot and drafting press coverage cornerback Trevon Diggs in the second round. If there is a team on Cleveland’s early slate that might be built to matchup against a team that is built around a 12 personnel-based offense, it is Dallas. It makes sense. After all, the Cowboys’ chief competition in the division, the Philadelphia Eagles, used 12 personnel more than any other team last year. Philadelphia used that grouping on 54% of their offense snaps, the only team to run that more than half the time. Two teams tied for second behind them at 35% of their plays: The Tennessee Titans, and the Vikings.
That is what the Browns are trying to build, and it is what the Cowboys are trying to stop.
Week 8: New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Sean McDermott and the Buffalo Bills might have failed to climb the mountaintop that was the Tom Brady-led New England Patriots over the past few seasons, but it was not without giving it their best shot. During his final years in Foxborough, Brady tended to struggle against the Bills more than any other defense. Take last year for example. In his two games against Buffalo his quarterback rating was just 76.2. It was only lower in games against the Dallas Cowboys (70.8, played in poor weather conditions), the Kansas City Chiefs (63.3) and the Philadelphia Eagles (67.3). In their Super Bowl season of 2018, his quarterback rating of 72.7 in the two games against Buffalo – both victories – bested only his game against the Detroit Lions early in the year (65.1) and his game midseason against the Tenneseee Titans (70.6).
New England lost both those games.
The point? Buffalo seemed to give Brady fits. Why? Because of their ability to spin their safeties and cause confusion in the Patriots’ offense. So much of New England’s playbook is dependent on timing, and also routes converting based on the coverage. If the rotation in the secondary can confuse just one player, whether Brady or a receiver, then the offense will not be as efficient.
For an example of this, you can watch this video breakdown from Erik Turner, who covers the Bills:
What happens in Week 8? Jarrett Stidham gets a chance to try and decipher these looks for the first time.
That will be fascinating to watch, and it will be a great way to measure Stidham’s progress as a starting quarterback.
Week 9: Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers
The Green Bay Packers shocked the world when they traded up in the first round to draft quarterback Jordan Love. Many football experts – myself included – assumed that a team one win away from a Super Bowl appearance would look to improve for the 2020 season by drafting someone who could immediately contribute, such as a wide receiver. Options were available to them at that point, such as Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman Jr., and Laviska Shenault Jr.
Instead, they went with a player who might not even see the field in 2020.
Beyond the Love selection, they added a bruiser of a running back in A.J. Dillion, and a H-Back type of player in Josiah Deguara on Day Two.
What might this foretell? A movement offensively in the direction of what the San Francisco 49ers themselves are running. When Matt LaFleur discussed the Deguara selection, he indicated that the organization views him as their Kyle Juszczyk. LaFleur is trying to put together an offense that will use personnel to their advantage, much like the 49ers do. They will throw out of 21 and 12 offensive personnel, and try to attack base defensive looks.
The 49ers game is a perfect test for this model, given what happened last year. While the Packers finished 13-3, only three of their wins came against playoff teams. They swept the Minnesota Vikings and beat Kansas City when the Chiefs were playing without Patrick Mahomes. They lost to the Philadelphia Eagles at home, and the Los Angeles Chargers on the road.
They also lost twice to the 49ers, both on the road, and gave up 37 points in each game while managing to score just eight points in their regular season meeting, and 20 in their playoff meeting.
This matchup will be a great test of whether their bets in the offseason are paying off.
Week 10: Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
Around the midway point of the 2019 season, the New England Patriots were riding high. They were 8-0 and looked to have the league’s toughest defense. Nicknamed “The Boogeymen,” the Patriots’ defensive unit was scaring the wits out of opposing quarterbacks, and were leading the league in scoring defense. In fact, to that point in the season New England’s defensive and special teams units had scored almost as many points themselves as they had surrendered.
But then a huge meeting in Week 9 loomed, a matchup between the Patriots and the Baltimore Ravens. It had many football minds, such as myself and Doug Farrar, debating about how the Patriots would contain Lamar Jackson and company.
They never really had a chance, looking back.
Jackson and the Ravens’ offense was dominant that night, and whatever Bill Belichick tried (Tite fronts, five linebackers, sub packages) nothing worked.
In Week 10 we will get to see what Belichick tries next to slow them down.
A potential part of that possible solution? Rookie safety Kyle Dugger. Sure, drafting a Division II safety early in the second round might be the most Belichick move of all time, but there is a likely reason behind the madness. Belichick saw on that Sunday night a defense exposed, without the athleticism to match the Ravens and Jackson. Dugger, while he might be raw, was one of the most explosive athletes in the draft. He might need some work before he is ready to take on every aspect of Belichick’s defensive playbook, but Belichick might have had this game in mind when the Dugger pick was made. He can throw the playbook out the window and just tell his rookie safety: Find number eight. Wherever he goes. I mean, think of him as chewing gum. By the end of the game, I want to know what flavor he is. Alright?
Week 11: Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens
This is not to say that the Baltimore Ravens did not have their own issues to address in the offseason.
The Ravens finished 14-2, secured home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, and had MVP winner Lamar Jackson running their offense. On the defensive side of the football, they assembled a pressure-based unit that got after opposing quarterbacks relying heavily on the blitz.
Then they were handed an early-round exit from the playoffs, when Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans came to town and ran over, around and through them. Henry ripped off 195 yards on the ground, the bulk of the 217 rushing yards the Titans had on the night, in the upset. It was the only time last year the Ravens allowed over 200 yards a game. Of course, when you win 14 games the opposition will be doing more throwing than running, but a game like that is going to leave an impression.
So what did they do this offseason? They added to their defensive front. Derek Wolfe was added via free agency. They traded for Calais Campbell. They drafted Justin Madubuike and Broderick Washington Jr.., for their defensive line. They also addressed linebacker, drafting both Patrick Queen in the first round and Malik Harrison in the third, a potential Dont’a Hightower clone.
It’s almost like Eric DeCosta taped a picture of Derrick Henry to the mirror this past winter:
In Week 11, we’ll see if those moves made it any easier to slow down the Titans’ rushing attack.
Week 12: Arizona Cardinals @ New England Patriots
(Yes, another picture we are contractually obligated to use as much as possible).
This game gives up one of the more fascinating schematic matchups of the entire season. On one side of the football you have Kliff Kingsbury and his Air Raid system, heavy on 10 offensive personnel (no team came close to how often the Cardinals used this four receiver package a year ago) and triggered by Kyler Murray, a mobile quarterback looking for a sophomore season leap.
One the other side of the football you have Bill Belichick, a defensive mastermind who still has a vast array of talent in the secondary at his disposal, a new rookie safety that can play sideline-to-sideline, and some young linebackers that he can use in a variety of different ways.
The chess match between Kingsbury and Belichick in this game is going to be fascinating. What adds another layer to it is Murray and what he can do as both a passer and an athlete. The Patriots under Belichick have been known to struggle against mobile quarterbacks, and Murray could be in a unique position to give the Patriots’ defense fits in this game. Maybe that is where Kyle Dugger, that rookie safety, comes into the picture. However Belichick looks to defend the Cardinals, this game will be one to anticipate in the weeks prior, and one to study and savor after it is over.
Week 12: Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles
Sure there is a revenge angle at work here. The Seattle Seahawks bounced the Philadelphia Eagles out of the playoffs last season – knocking Carson Wentz out of the game early in the process – and the Eagles would love a little bit of payback.
But there is another element to this game that is worth watching: How the Seahawks and their defense are going to match up against the Eagles and their 12 personnel package, particularly in the wake of two additions: Linebacker Jordyn Brooks for the Seahawks and wide receiver Jalen Reagor for the Eagles.
It was a bit of a surprise when Seattle drafted Brooks in the first round, as the linebacker was viewed as more likely a Day Two selection. His strengths are working downhill against the run, and not running with tight ends on seam routes or playing in space. That might be something he is tasked with doing early and often against the pair of Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert.
Then there is the acquisition of Reagor, a receiver perhaps best suited at the underneath game given his ability after the catch, but also a dangerous threat on double moves.
Making this game even more interesting is the fact that both teams might rely on heavier packages. Last year the Seahawks relied on three linebackers more than most other defenses – which will bring Brooks onto the field – and the Eagles were predominantly a 12 offensive personnel team, running that package more than any other team in the league.
An interesting clash of styles with a side dish of revenge. Makes for some good watchin’.
