Good evening, I’m Ben Jacobs with the latest from Washington and beyond. If you’re not already receiving the Midterms Minute by email, sign up.
Women of the White House hit the campaign trail
Some of the top Republican surrogates for the midterms have been female White House staffers. Kellyanne Conway, Sarah Sanders and Ivanka Trump have all spent substantial time hitting the campaign trail. In fact, although Sanders has only held two press briefings in the past two months, she has appeared at a dozen events for Republicans this fall.
Why them? First of all, because they are not Donald Trump. While Trump is popular in deep red areas, many of the battlegrounds in 2018 are suburban areas where the president is deeply unpopular. Further, they are women and Trump is viewed unfavorably among female voters, something that was not necessarily helped by the confirmation fight over Brett Kavanaugh.
New questions raised over Andrew Gillum’s FBI investigation
Andrew Gillum, the Democratic nominee for Florida governor, has long faced scrutiny over an ongoing investigation about ethical lapses while serving as mayor of Tallahassee. New questions were raised on Tuesday when it was revealed that he had accepted a free ticket to the musical Hamilton from men whom he believed to be property developers trying to do business in Tallahassee and were actually undercover FBI agents. Gillum has insisted the ticket was paid for by his brother.
Is this a big deal? It could be. Before a major infusion from out-of-state billionaires, Gillum’s campaign in the primary had floundered over the corruption investigation in Tallahassee. Although Gillum has insisted he was not a target, it has still raised major questions about his ethics.
Moderate Republican clinging on in south Florida
Republican Carlos Curbelo is the model of a moderate Republican who has been able to win in a Democratic-leaning district. The two-term congressman from south Florida won by 12% in 2016 while Hillary Clinton won his district by 16%.
Is this unusual? Yes, and Curbelo is still holding on this year while other Republicans in similar districts like Barbara Comstock in Virginia and Mike Coffman in Colorado are in far greater political peril.
Poll of the day
The special election for US Senate in Mississippi may be headed for a runoff. A new poll of likely voters in Mississippi has shows the incumbent Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith with 38%, Democrat Mike Espy with 29% and hard-right conservative Republican Chris McDaniel with 15%. The election will be held on 6 November but if no candidate gets 50% of the vote, there will be a runoff on 27 November.
So can Democrats win? It’s still Mississippi and a poll of a runoff had Espy losing to Hyde-Smith by a margin of 50%-36%. It will certainly be an uphill climb for Democrats. However, the party did win a special election for Senate in Alabama last year.
Ad of the day
The Republican governor of Illinois, Bruce Rauner, who is down by double digits in his reelection bid, has a new negative ad out hitting his Democratic opponent JB Pritzker for his ties to Democratic party boss Mike Madigan. It features a wedding with an actor depicting Madigan, who is also the state house speaker, tying the knot with billionaire heir Pritzker. At the conclusion of the ceremony, the actor depicting the minister pronounces that “Illinois is [bleeped].”
Will it work? Doubtful. Rauner has long tried to tie Pritzker to Madigan, who is deeply associated with Democratic machine politics in the state. However, facing a massive deficit in the polls, it’s unlikely that even this unconventional ad will make a difference.
Has anyone reacted? LGBT groups have and they have condemned the ad for treating same-sex weddings as “a joke”.
