Good evening, I’m Ben Jacobs with the latest from Washington and beyond. If you’re not already receiving the midterms minute by email, sign up.
Negative ads still run as Hurricane Michael rages
Hurricane Michael hit Florida’s Gulf coast as a category 4 storm and is poised to do tremendous damage . But, breaking with precedent, the airwaves in Florida’s Panhandle are still jam-packed with negative ads on behalf of candidates in both parties.
Is this a big deal? The ads probably won’t be seen by many. After all, most Floridians in the areas affected are not likely to even have electricity. But it is another sign of crumbling political norms.
Republicans rely on gas tax to save California seats
California has become one of the central battlegrounds of the midterms. There are seven Republican-held seats in the state that Hillary Clinton won in 2016. As a result, the GOP is doing everything it can to play defense.
Scrap a gas tax? One effort is a referendum on a gas tax increase passed last year. The campaign to overturn the 12-cent-per-gallon increase in the tax is a key part of a Republican strategy to boost turnout by conservatives in November.
Will it work? It certainly will make a difference. Ballot measures have long been used by both parties to juice turnout from their base. Most infamously, in 2004, a series of statewide initiatives to ban gay marriage may have provided the decisive margin for Republicans in a number of states as it turned out evangelicals.
Kamala Harris goes to South Carolina
The California senator will campaign in South Carolina next week, the home of the “First in the South” presidential primary. It’s a key step forward for a potential 2020 candidate who has still yet to appear in Iowa or New Hampshire. (Although she will be in Iowa before election day.)
She’s running? This is another strong indicator that she just might be. Although Democrats have competitive candidates running for governor and for a congressional seat in the Palmetto State, neither of those races are in or even adjacent to the top tier.
Why is South Carolina important? The Democratic primary electorate in South Carolina is majority African American. With black voters making up a key demographic within the Democratic party, South Carolina’s presidential primary is a key test of whether Democratic candidates can appeal to African Americans.
Poll of the day
In a poll from NBC News and Marist College, Democrat Jacky Rosen is trailing the incumbent Republican Dean Heller in Nevada’s Senate race. The poll has Rosen, a first-time congresswoman, losing by a narrow 46%-44% margin in what Democrats consider their best Senate pickup opportunity in the midterms.
How bad is this for Democrats? It’s not good. Rosen had a narrow lead in previous polls but this is the first one since the congressional testimony of Christine Blasey Ford and the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the United States supreme court. However, it’s one poll in a state that is notoriously difficult to poll.
So who wins in November? It’s still going to be close. Heller is the only Republican up for re-election in a state that Hillary Clinton won and is still vulnerable as a result. However, he first won election to the Senate in 2012 when Barack Obama won the state handily and Clinton’s success in the Silver State in 2016 should not be considered an omen of a “blue wave” in 2018.
Ad of the day
Democrats are aggressively trying to tie Republican congresswoman Mimi Walters to Donald Trump in a new ad. However, they may simply aggressively annoy quite a few southern Californians who watch it. The advertisement has an off-key performance of “99 bottles of beer on the wall” to amplify its message that Walters votes with Trump 99% of the time.
Is it effective? Clinton won the suburban southern California district by a 49%-44% in 2016. It’s an area of Orange county that is traditionally Republican but has been deeply alienated by Trump and is now a central battleground in the midterms.
Will it work? It’s certainly memorable and is likely to be a rather annoying earworm if you watch it enough times (which you shouldn’t).
