CLASSIC TORY TARGET SEATS
In every election there are classic marginal seats, where small majorities leave them vulnerable to even minor shifts in the public mood. Assuming that there is at least some nationwide swing to the Conservatives, as all the polling still suggests, these will be high on the Tory wishlist. There are 30 seats with a Labour majority of less than seven percentage points over the Conservatives – seats that would fall on a 3.5-point swing on Thursday. These are a diverse mix, including suburban ultra-marginals such as the City of Chester (majority: 0.2%) and Hove (majority 2.4%); socially mixed Midlands and northern battlegrounds such as Halifax (1%) and Wolverhampton South West (2%); and outer London marginals such as Ilford North (1.2%) and Enfield North (2.4%). It will be a long and painful night for Theresa May if she does not receive healthy gains in these key targets.
Seats to watch City of Chester, Ealing Central & Acton, Wirral West, Halifax, Ilford North, Wolverhampton South West
RED RECOVERY?
Labour’s surge will have raised activists’ hopes of winning back some of the seats lost in 2015, particularly those where the party suffered narrow shock defeats in areas with long traditions of Labour support. Top of the list will be the Welsh ultra-marginal seats of Gower (Conservative majority 0.1%) and Vale of Clwyd (0.7%) – the former was a Labour seat for more than a century before the Conservatives won by the narrowest margin anywhere in Britain in 2015. The most recent Welsh polling suggests the party has bounced back strongly during the campaign, so these seats must be strong prospects for Labour now. Labour would also dearly love to avenge the shock defeat of former shadow chancellor Ed Balls in Morley and Outwood (Conservative majority 0.9%).
Seats to watch Gower, Vale of Clwyd, Southampton Itchen, Plymouth Moor View, Bolton West, Croydon Central
PURPLE SPRINGBOARDS
The Conservatives’ best hopes of gains beyond the usual marginal battlegrounds come in Labour-held marginals with a large 2015 Ukip vote. Recruits from the fast-retreating “people’s army” could deliver many of these even if the Labour vote remains stable. Current polling suggests the Conservatives are winning more than half of the 2015 Ukip vote – enough to overturn Labour’s majorities in more than 30 seats. However, much will depend on how this breaks down geographically. To maximise their seat gains, the Tories will need to win over the largest chunk of the Ukip vote in those areas of the Midlands and the north traditionally held by Labour – but these are also the areas where Ukip recruited more from Labour in 2015. It is uncertain whether such voters will be willing to back May’s Tories for their support for Brexit, or whether traditional suspicions of a dominant Conservative party will reassert themselves. These seats also have a broader symbolic resonance, as they provide a key test of whether May’s combination of economic interventionism and social conservatism has renewed her party’s appeal in areas where it has often been toxic to voters since the rise of Margaret Thatcher.
Seats to watch Dudley North, Scunthorpe, Blackpool South, Wakefield, Mansfield
PROGRESSIVE CONSOLIDATION?
While the Tories hope to make gains by consolidating support from Ukip on their right flank, Labour hopes in many marginals will similarly hinge on winning over supporters from other “progressive” parties – Lib Dems, Greens and smaller parties on the fringe left. There are a number of Tory seats where a squeeze on third- and fourth-place votes – or the decision by local Green or Lib Dem parties to get behind a local Labour candidate – could give Labour a chance even if the national swing is against it. For example, in Derby North the Tory majority is just 0.1%, while the combined Green and Lib Dem share in 2015 was more than 12%. In young and liberal Brighton, the Tories hold the Kemptown seat with a majority of 1.5%, while the Green and Lib Dem vote is 10%.
Seats to watch Derby North, Brighton Kemptown, Bristol North West
RETURN OF THE TARTAN TORIES?
It has never been strictly accurate to speak of one election campaign across the UK – Northern Ireland has long been a different country politically. The same is now true in Scotland, where this election is as much a referendum on SNP dominance at Holyrood as Conservative dominance in Westminster. The Scottish Conservatives are hopeful for three reasons. Their leader, Ruth Davidson, is popular, and appeals beyond the traditional Tory base. The SNP gamble on a second independence referendum also looks to have backfired, galvanising support for the union – with the Scottish Conservatives the most likely beneficiaries. The SNP’s embrace of the EU and opposition to Brexit has also caused unexpected problems – 40% of Scots voted to Leave, including a sizeable chunk of the SNP electorate. Much of that, too, now seems to be drifting to the Conservatives. A serious challenge to SNP dominance remains unlikely, but the Tories have a decent shot in a large cluster of more middle-class, rural and pro-Brexit seats – potentially giving them their best return in Scotland for decades.
Seats to watch Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, Dumfries and Galloway, Perth and North Perthshire, Moray
LIB DEMS – FIGHTBACK OR WIPEOUT?
Lib Dem hopes of recovery have been dashed by a campaign where they have barely featured, and where their poll ratings have dwindled to below their awful showing in 2015, when the party’s Westminster coalition was decimated. A broad-based recovery now looks unlikely, but the party will retain hopes of returning in the handful of seats where favourable factors combine: a small Tory majority, favourable local demographics and well-known, popular candidates. The middle-class and heavily Remain-voting seats of Twickenham, where Vince Cable is running again, and Kingston and Surbiton, where Ed Davey is looking to return, remain strong prospects. East Dunbartonshire, where Jo Swinson nearly held on against the SNP tide in 2015 and is standing again, also looks like a strong prospect. On the other hand, the Tory success in consolidating the Ukip vote could put some of the party’s remaining seats in doubt. Southport, where there is a large Ukip vote and the Lib Dem incumbent is standing down, will be hard to hold, while both Carshalton and Wallington and Norfolk North will be hard to retain if the Ukip vote goes heavily behind the Conservatives. Meanwhile, Labour’s surge could also threaten the party from the left in two other seats – Leeds North West and Nick Clegg’s Sheffield Hallam. If the Lib Dems get squeezed from both sides, and fail to recover in their strongest pickup prospects, we could return to the situation in the 1950s when the Liberal parliamentary party could fit comfortably into a London black cab.
Seats to watch Twickenham, Kingston and Surbiton, East Dunbartonshire, Southport, Carshalton and Wallington, Sheffield Hallam
Robert Ford is professor of political science at the University of Manchester and the author, with Matthew Goodwin, of Revolt on the Right: Explaining Support for the Radical Right in Britain
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