Memorable back-to-back away victories over Sheffield United and Middlesbrough have propelled Bristol City back into the play-off places. But what do they need to stay there?
In fifth place with a game in hand on Aston Villa in sixth and West Brom nine points ahead in fourth, the Robins stand a real chance of finishing as the best of the rest with eight season-defining games remaining.
However, such is the competitive nature of the Championship, just five points separate them from 11th-placed Sheffield Wednesday and the frustration of mid-table mediocrity.
With 61 points from 38 games, Bristol City are averaging 1.61 points per game which gives them a projected points total of 73.88 - meaning they are forecast to collect 12.88 more points, from their remaining eight games, a number that will likely disappoint Robins fans.
So, based on previous years, what is the minimum requirement for City to lock down a top-six spot?
Based on their form this season, which has been erratic at times, Bristol City are expected to pick up just 12.88 points from their remaining eight games, giving them a total of 73.88 points.
Will that be enough to secure a play-off spot?
The short answer is: potentially not.
Based on their inconsistent form this season, the Robins face a battle to make certain of a top six finish and may have to better their expected haul of 12.88 points from their remaining games - at least four wins and a draw.
An average of 75.1 points has been enough for sixth place over the last 10 seasons - so it could go either way for City.
Derby County managed 75 last season, Fulham amassed an impressive 80 in 2016/17, while Sheffield Wednesday needed just 74 the campaign before that.
Based on the form guide, Bristol City will be hovering around the 74-point mark, although Lee Johnson will be hoping for more with some very winnable games remaining.
Meanwhile, third – the first of the four play-off positions in the second tier – has typically yielded around the 83.5 mark.
Polling website predicts play-offs
American polling website FiveThirtyEight use statistical analysis to predict a range of political, economic and scientific outcomes, but also do plenty of work in sport and have a model to predict the Championship season.
Their system sees an offensive and defensive rating combine to work out how many points they should earn from each match and their latest figures do indeed point to a play-off place for Bristol City, despite their lower than average points total.
They predict the table will stay as it is, with the Robins sneaking into the play-offs with 73 points with Villa behind them on 71.
FiveThirtyEight give City a 67 per cent chance of staying in the top six and a 16 per cent chance of promotion.
