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Manchester Evening News
Manchester Evening News
Sport
David Alexander Hughes

The Liverpool FC weaknesses strengthening Man City grip on Premier League title

It was another huge moment in the title race on Sunday, as Manchester City overcame an unpredictable Crystal Palace side with a standout 3-1 victory.

A brace for Raheem Sterling as well as a late goal for Gabriel Jesus briefly fired the Blues back to the Premier League summit.

Yet victory for Liverpool later that day against Chelsea saw City drop back down to second in the table behind their North West rivals, the latest positional change in a topsy-turvy title fight.

An obvious caveat to that is the fact that Pep Guardiola's men can still boast a game in hand over Jurgen Klopp’s side - and should they win their remaining five league matches then they will again be crowned champions of England.

However, City have a markedly tougher run than Liverpool, with Tottenham and United to come in the next two league matches. Any slip up in either of those games could see the destiny of the league title go back into the hands of Klopp’s side.

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Additionally, Liverpool have again looked to have found their stride and are currently in the midst of a five-game winning run in the league, having not dropped points since the Merseyside Derby back at the beginning of March.

But are there any signs that the Merseysiders could come unstuck in the closing few weeks of the season, meaning City won't need a perfect finish and record 14 straight league wins to retain their crown?

Riding their luck

Whilst there is no doubt Liverpool are a brilliant side and deserving of a spot inside the Premier League top two with City, there have been plenty of examples of them riding their luck this season.

Notably, when it comes to fortune in the latter stages of matches, not many teams have enjoyed more than Liverpool.

Klopp’s side have scored 27% of their league goals in the final 15 minutes of matches this season. For comparison, City have scored just 15% of their league goals in the closing stages of their league encounters.

Furthermore, 35% of their wins have come by just a one goal margin in the league this campaign. Again for comparison, just 22% of City’s wins have come by a one goal margin in the league so far.

Strikingly, they have benefited from three goalkeeping errors inthe  latter stages of matches which have all led to match winning goals.

Against Everton, Jordan Pickford’s failure to deal with a looped ball onto the crossbar gifted Divock Origi a 96th minute winner with a header from one yard out.

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Away at Fulham, keeper Sergio Rico gave away a rash penalty at 1-1 with eight minutes of the game to go which former City man James Milner smartly converted to snatch a nervy victory.

Then, against Spurs just three weeks ago, in a game that looked destined to peter out into a draw, a spilled ball by Hugo Lloris and a calamitous piece of defending from Toby Alderweireld in the 90th minute gifted Liverpool a late winner and another huge slice of luck.

Further affirmation of their prosperity can be demonstrated from their meeting with City at Anfield way back in October. Had Rihad Mahrez’s 83rd minute penalty been converted, there would have been a three-point swing in City’s favour.

Whilst there is a frustration that Liverpool could be as many as eight points worse off under less charmed circumstances, City fans can take solace in a belief that their reliance on this good fortune in tight matches when they are not at their best could see them come unstuck in at least one of their remaining four league matches.

League finishes

With the pressure mounting, a strong finish for both sides will be key.

Liverpool’s last sustained title challenge came back in the 2013/14 season when they battled Manuel Pellegrini's City for the title. With four games to go, the pressure told and the Reds managed just two victories against Norwich and Newcastle which were sandwiched in between a defeat Chelsea and a draw to Crystal Palace.

Those two results handed the fate of the title back into the hands of City to secure their fourth league success. 

But overall in recent times, Liverpool don’t have a great record in the concluding stages of the season. Over the course of the previous four seasons, they have won just six of their 16 final four league matches.

A table of both teams four the final four matches of the previous four seasons (@DAHughes_)

Having drew six and lost four of those games, they have a combined points total of 24. That equates to an average of 1.5 points per game.

City on the other hand can boast a formidable record in the latter stages of the season.

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In that same four season period, the Blues have won 12 of their 16 matches, drawing three and losing just once.

That equates to an average of 2.44 points per game. A similar average in the closing stages of the season would see City cruise to their sixth league title.

A melancholy midfield and reliance on the front three

Whilst Liverpool are strong in all areas of the pitch, the midfield remains a conundrum for Klopp.

It’s made up of a rotating five which includes Milner, Jordan Henderson, Gini Wijnaldum, Fabinho and Naby Keita who have all featured together in various combinations without any regular consistency.

Whilst often robust off-the-ball, they have sometimes struggled to yield as a suitable link with their attack on it.

This has resulted in Liverpool’s dynamic front three of Sadio Mane, Roberto Firmino and Mohamed Salah often being left isolated and forced to create the bulk of Liverpool’s goal scoring threat between them.

Notably, those five combined midfielders have scored just 12% of Liverpool’s league goals this season.

Across the previous four matches, Klopp has favoured a trio of Keita, Fabinho and Henderson. In the set up, Fabinho has been utilised as the No.6 whilst Keita and Henderson have been pushed further forward. So far, it has proven an assured threesome, with the Reds picking up four victories in that time.

Despite now seemingly boasting a successful and settled midfield, the German’s want or requirement to consistently revise that trio does still highlight a lack of trust in the area.

Having only just recently started playing together, that combination could be exposed in the coming weeks.

With stern tests on the horizon against teams who won't let Liverpool have things all their own way, City should be optimistic that their fate could remain in their own hands in the preceding few weeks, even if they do have any form of slip up.

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