The Guardian’s analysis of court data provides valuable evidence that alleged participants in the 2024 riots are local to the communities where the riots and demonstrations took place (Local. Left behind. Prey to populist politics? What the data tells us about the 2024 UK rioters, 25 September). But the fact that the alleged rioters come from depressed communities does not by itself substantiate that deprivation can help predict radical action. In a 2023 article in the journal Plos One, we show that measures of local deprivation help predict variation in violent rightwing attacks in England, in line with the argument that people who observe more deprivation in their community are more likely to become disillusioned and support extremism. Identifying deprivation can help us better understand where the risk of future violence is higher, and efforts to reduce community deprivation can also help reduce future political violence.
Margherita Belgioioso Associate professor in quantitative international relations, University of Leeds, Christoph Dworschak Lecturer in quantitative political science, University of York, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch Regius professor of political science, University of Essex
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