England may now have a higher R rate than Wales for the first time in a month.
The latest estimates put the R rate in Wales to be between 0.9 and 1.2. This is quite a fall with higher estimates putting the Wales rate as up to 1.4 last week.
By contrast the rate for the whole of England has risen from between 0.9 and one last week to between 1.1 and 1.3.
Why is it so volatile?
Wales and England had been at very different points with England recently coming out of a month long lockdown where the virus has been repressed. Wales has been out of the fire-break for a month which is why the r rate was so much higher.
However the impact of some of the Welsh Government's restrictions on hospitality seem to be starting to have an effect on the virus though it is likely still growing.
This fear led the Welsh Government reducing the number of people allowed to meet at Christmas from three households to two.
Now England is starting to see spikes in cases as well - especially in the south east.
Over the summer it was very hard for experts and modellers to come up with an exact R number because there was so little of the virus in circulation.
However, it has now reached the point where the virus is so widespread that experts are able to say with more certainty what it is in Wales.
The R number represents the amount of people each person with Covid-19 is infecting with the virus.
If it goes above one the number of people becoming infected with the virus will grow exponentially but for as long as it remains below one the number of people infected with the virus will continue to fall.
Even if the R rate is falling any figure above one means cases of the virus are on the rise.
Find out how many cases are in your area:
What about other parts of the UK?
The Department of Health in England publishes the R number for every region once a week.
- East of England - 1.2-1.4 (rise)
- London - 1.1-1.3 (rise)
- Midlands -1-1.2 (rise)
- North east and Yorkshire - 0.9-1.1 (rise)
- North west - 0.9 to 1-1 (rise)
- South east - 1.1-1.3 (rise)
- South west - 0.9-1.2 (rise)
Scotland has a current range of between 0.9-1.1 which is up from 0.7 and 0.9 last week.
