Theresa May has fired the starting pistol on the race to replace her but prospective candidates face a battle to persuade Conservative voters to embrace a leadership election.
“It’s the last thing you want, it’s not going to achieve anything,” said David Robertson, 73. “I think she [May] is doing a fantastic job, it’s damn tough. She’s been dealt a rotten hand. I blame Cameron for calling the referendum in the first place.” Robertson, who was speaking on Esher High Street, is a Conservative party member in the Tory heartlands of Surrey. His vote and those of people like him will be crucial to those vying to succeed May. The MP for Esher and Walton is Dominic Raab, one of those believed to be ready to throw his hat into the ring.
Robertson said that if May were to go, he would prefer Raab by dint of him being the local MP. But it was a choice expressed with little enthusiasm and not shared by anyone else the Observer spoke to in the affluent town, which is home to Sandown Park racecourse. For some, Raab’s resignation as Brexit minister after just four months in the post could not be forgiven.
A Conservative leadership contest has two stages.
In the first part, MPs vote for their choice of leader from all of the candidates who have been nominated. In each round of voting, the candidate with the least number of votes is eliminated from the contest. MPs then vote again, until there are only two challengers remaining. This usually takes place over several days.
At that point the second stage is a postal ballot of Conservative party members to chose which of the two candidates they wish to lead the party.
In 2016 the party members did not get to vote. At the point that the contest had been narrowed down to a choice between Andrea Leadsom or Theresa May, Leadsom stood aside. This left Theresa May to become leader and prime minister unopposed.
Under the existing rules, since she won a vote of no confidence in December 2018, Theresa May's leadership cannot be directly challenged. However, she would trigger a leadership contest by resigning, as she has now promised to do.
“I was very disappointed that he seemed to turn against her [May],” said lifelong Conservative voter Lady Lindsay Ball, 82. “It’s an unenviable job. I think she’s amazing, how the hell does she manage to cope? It’s impressive.”
Simon Foster, 46, an architect, went further, saying he was, for the first time, not planning to vote Conservative for because of Raab, whom he described as “the scourge of the party”. He added: “There’s enough going on; just leave her [the prime minister] to get on with it. It’s not about the leadership – anyone in this position has got a tough job.”
Despite the opprobrium heaped on May from all sides in parliament and in the press, there was almost universal agreement in Esher that she was actually performing capably in the circumstances. The only exceptions were Conservative party member Pauline Sturtridge, 79, and her husband, Gerald. “We haven’t got the Brexit that people voted for. I fear for our democracy and sovereignty,” she said. “I would say Jacob Rees-Mogg [for leader] but he’s too posh for some people, I think. Boris [Johnson] is a very, very clever man but his tomfoolery has spoilt his image. [Michael] Gove stabbed Johnson in the back.”
The feedback from Tory voters suggested that a perceived lack of loyalty could count for a lot when it comes to electing May’s successor. Given Johnson’s use of his most recent Telegraph column to give an unflattering account of the prime minister’s travails, it is an issue that, along with questions about his public persona, could count against the betting favourite.
Lifelong Conservative member Penny Mckilline, 82, said: “May has done a fantastic job from the beginning. I wish her to stay on to do the job that we pay her to do. It’s other people causing the problems. I feel disgusted.”
She felt May’s sex had much to do with the criticism and backstabbing from within her party.
About 15 miles away, in the village of Windlesham in Michael Gove’s constituency and home to Surrey Heath Conservative Association, Christine Haspineall, 63, was similarly indignant about May’s treatment. “I am a huge fan of Theresa May and I’d be very surprised if any man could do what she’s done,” she said. “I think she’s great, I don’t think any man could have been so forthright and determined as she has been. I think anyone else would have crumbled.”
While firmly against May being replaced, Gove was the only contender she could countenance taking the reins.
Carol Hewitt, 75, who lives in one of the pretty cottages on the outskirts of Windlesham, is also a Gove fan, describing him as a man of great integrity, but waxed lyrical about others too, including Andrea Leadsom. “I’ve always admired Boris, but I think he’d be useless,” she said, “I’d also be happy with Jacob Rees-Mogg, but I can understand he wouldn’t go down well.”
Her musings, added to those of others, suggest that whoever is the next Conservative leader is going to have their work cut out to heal divides within the party and country, and may look back at May’s efforts to do so with greater magnanimity.
“I think she’s been presented with a poisoned chalice, there’s no easy way [to deliver Brexit],” said Hewitt. “I think she should go but I don’t know what the next person can do. I blame the MPs who promised to deliver Brexit [and haven’t done so].”
Across the road, 43-year-old pharmacist Nicola Smith lamented: “It’s not a united country at the moment. I think she [May] needs to finish the job.”
