The Last Samuri, who had only 10st 8lb on his back when he finished second in last year’s Grand National, is set to carry the top weight of 11st 10lb in this year’s renewal at Aintree on Saturday after Carlingford Lough, who was at the head of the weights in the original handicap, was scratched at the five-day stage . If he comes home in front this weekend, Kim Bailey’s chaser will be the first top weight to win since Red Rum carried 12st to victory in 1974.
The Last Samuri is top-priced at 16-1 to bridge that 43-year gap but a glance at the likely runners in this year’s race compared with the field that finished strung out behind Red Rum shows how much the race has changed in recent decades and the size of the task facing The Last Samuri on Saturday.
In all, six horses from the original top 40 in the National handicap were taken out of the race on Monday, including Ziga Boy, who was seen as a live outsider at around 50-1 but has suffered a season-ending tendon injury. The new cut-off point is now shared by La Vaticane and Doctor Harper, who are both trained by David Pipe and set to carry 10st 5lb, with the former expected to make it into the race if there are no more withdrawals as her official rating is 1lb higher.
It is certain, though, that all 40 runners this weekend will run from their correct marks, with a weight range from top to bottom of around 19lb. It is a stark contrast with the field in 1974, when no fewer than 15 of the 42 runners set off with the minimum weight of 10st, and most of those were “out of the handicap”, and so carrying more weight than their actual rating required.
With the famous National fences now much more forgiving and the race also reduced in distance to an extended four and a quarter miles, the modern Grand National is much more competitive than the races of 30 years ago and even the betting on which horse will start favourite on Saturday is wide open. Paddy Power quoted five runners – Definitly Red, Vieux Lion Rouge, The Last Samuri, Cause Of Causes and Blaklion – as possible market leaders on Monday, at prices ranging from 5-2 to 17-2, but also offer only 7-2 that any other horse sets off at the head of the betting.
Vieux Lion Rouge, another runner from the David Pipe stable, was still the narrow 11‑1 favourite on Monday evening at the best prices available, with Definitly Red, an impressive winner at Doncaster last time out, available at 12-1 with a few bookmakers. The momentum in the market seems to be with Definitly Red, however, and he is the clear favourite with several firms at odds as short as 9-1.
The likelihood of drying ground at Aintree could also have an impact on the market in the run-up to Saturday’s race, and the soft going on the National course was officially changed on Monday afternoon from to soft, good-to-soft in places. The ground on both the Mildmay and hurdles courses, which stage the majority of the races at the three-day Grand National meeting, also quickened slightly.
“Yesterday and today have been nice sunny days,” Andrew Tulloch, Aintree’s clerk of the course, said on Monday. “It is not that warm but the courses are just quietly drying.
“We will see if we have to water the Mildmay and hurdles courses tomorrow or on Wednesday. There could be a few millimetres of rain tonight and then it is forecast to be dry.” Barry Geraghty’s choice of mount in Saturday’s race could also sway many punters, and JP McManus’s retained rider is still weighing up the relative merits of Cause Of Causes (14-1) and More Of That (16-1). Cause Of Causes ran out an impressive winner of the Cross-Country Chase at Cheltenham’s Festival meeting last month, while More Of That finished sixth in the Gold Cup two days later.
“I’m none the wiser at the minute,” Geraghty, who missed the Festival meeting due to injury, said on At The Races on Monday. “I rode Cause Of Causes work last week and he felt well. I schooled More Of That on Friday and that went well, too. Both are in good shape.
“You can make a very good case for both horses, so I’m a little bit undecided at the minute. More Of That was running well at Leopardstown [in February] when he came down at the last. You have to think he disappointed a little in the Gold Cup, but you’d like to think he’s better than that.
“Cause Of Causes obviously won the cross-country race at Cheltenham and that has been a good indicator over the years, but off his handicap mark, it could be hard for him.
“It’s a tricky one. I’ll make my decision [before the final declarations] on Thursday or shortly before.”
Robert Havlin, who rode 81 winners in 2016 including 55 for leading Newmarket trainer John Gosden, said on Monday that he will ask the British Horseracing Authority not to reciprocate a six-month ban imposed by the French authorities in February for a failed drugs test.
Havlin, who failed in his final appeal against the decision on Monday, has described the finding as an “outrageous miscarriage of justice and defamation of my character”.
Paul Struthers, the chief executive of the Professional Jockeys’ Association, said on Monday that an application to the BHA requesting non-reciprocation of the suspension will be lodged in the next 48 hours.
“We believe Rab Havlin is a victim of a miscarriage of justice and he has our full support in continuing his legal challenges to overturn the suspension imposed by France Galop,” Struthers said, “a decision we do not accept to be supported by the facts.
“His French solicitor will tomorrow commence to challenge the decision in the French courts and the PJA will lodge an application with the British Horseracing Authority requesting that they do not reciprocate the suspension. This application, made under Rule (A)69 of the Rules of Racing, will be on the grounds that we believe France Galop has failed to comply with the laws of natural justice.
“Rab has never tested positive for prohibitive substances or failed any such test in his 27 year riding career, and will continue to fight to clear his name.”
Tuesday’s tips, by Greg Wood
Kempton Park
2.00 Burning Heat 2.30 Laurium 3.05 Laser Light 3.40 Wilberdragon 4.10 Timeforwest 4.45 Denny Kerrell 5.15 Norse Light
Southwell
2.10 Meshardal 2.40 Hart Stopper 3.15 Ada Misobel 3.50 Simply Clever 4.20 Custard The Dragon (nap) 4.55 Dusty Blue 5.25 Eurato 5.55 Storm King (nb)
