The election prospects of one of Australia's most senior politicians may be about to change.
Proposed federal electorate boundaries for Queensland are due to be unveiled by the Australian Electoral Commission on Friday, and Immigration Minister Peter Dutton's electorate of Dickson is set for a significant shift.
ABC election analyst Antony Green describes the statewide changes as "likely to be incremental rather than radical".
However he estimates a tweak proposed by the Liberal National Party (LNP) would boost Mr Dutton's margin in his Dickson seat from 1.6 per cent to 2.9 per cent.
The boundary suggested by the LNP excludes some areas more likely to vote Labor in the north-east of the electorate, and expands Dickson into traditionally Coalition-supporting areas in the south-east.
The following map shows the proposed changes. The black line shows the existing boundary, circles show polling booths.
The more blue the circle, the greater the proportion of LNP voters in that booth. Larger circles mean booths with larger numbers of voters.
The Labor Party has proposed a less dramatic change, which Mr Green predicts would have "little impact" on Mr Dutton's prospects.
The LNP argued in its submission its changes would "reunite" the suburb of Bridgeman Downs, which is currently on the south-east boundary of the electorate, to "enable an improved community interest".
Despite this claim, the proposed change would split Bridgeman Downs between the electorates of Dickson and Petrie.
Mr Dutton won Dickson by just 2,911 votes at the election in 2016.
Last chance for objections
The Queensland boundary change has been triggered by law requiring tweaks to boundaries every seven years to keep populations across electorates even.
After the proposed boundaries are unveiled on Friday, parties will have the opportunity to make objections.
Boundaries of other marginal seats likely to change include Herbert, held by Labor MP Cathy O'Toole, Capricornia of LNP MP Michelle Landry and Flynn, where the LNP's Ken O'Dowd is MP.
The boundaries are expected to be finalised in December.
For more information, Antony Green has provided analysis on his blog.
Redistributions are also underway in Tasmania, Victoria, the ACT and South Australia.
