The blockbuster
Like Twilight and Harry Potter, the closing chapter of The Hunger Games was bifurcated by distributor Lionsgate, hoping for a similar box-office bonanza. There’s no doubt that two Mockingjays will bring in more than one would have, but the trick is not working as well as with other young-adult franchises. Mockingjay - Part 1’s opening saw a hefty fall-off from both the first film ($152.5m) and Catching Fire ($158m). More disappointing for Lionsgate is that Part 2 – unlike Harry Potter and Twilight – has failed to rally audiences for the big finale, debuting this weekend at a series low of $101m.
That is 2015’s fifth biggest opening, so some consolation there, but The Hunger Games appears to be smouldering as a franchise rather than going out in an almighty blaze. Audiences seem to prefer the neatly corralled sadism of stories structured around the games themselves, rather than the dour, militaristic trudge to Katniss Everdeen’s happily-ever-after. (Whether that confounds or confirms the intention of Suzanne Collins’s original novels, I’ll leave you to decide.) In any case, Part 2’s marketing campaign, unveiling a scarlet-suited Jennifer Lawrence, failed to give audiences much that was new and compelling.
Currently stacking up nearly 60% towards international territories, the good news is that The Hunger Games is continuing to build overseas (Part 1 was split 44% US/56% international). Mitigating that is the fact that openings for the top 10 territories have all dropped since Part 1, apart from Germany (where the world premiere took place). The Chinese result – $16.4m against Part 1’s $19.8m – is another blow, as that was the one territory able to cushion a disappointing American showing. Mockingjay – Part 2 doesn’t have much competition in the tentpole stakes until The Force Awakens lands on 18 December; presumably playing more to millennials than Spectre, it may still pull in strays keen to see the conclusion of the Katniss saga. But it looks as though it will wind up somewhere between the first Hunger Games’ $694.4m and Part 1’s $755.4m, leaving the franchise without a $1bn grosser. Second-tier stuff, in other words.
The classic hero
Big drops this weekend for Spectre in the US (-57%) and China (-75%) look alarming. But actually, it’s in extremely rude health a month into its rollout: $677.8m worldwide and still with an outside chance of matching Skyfall’s $1.1bn. Even if the Chinese haven’t taken to 007 as passionately as Sony might’ve hoped, Spectre’s classicist approach – not only joining the dots between the Daniel Craig films, but self-referentially putting Bond on a kind of greatest-hits carousel of past escapades – seems to have shored up Bond’s appeal in places where he’s already a household name. The UK is running almost par with Skyfall at fourth weekend stage (Skyfall: $131.6m; Spectre: $130.5m). Germany and France are a little behind the previous movie, though the increased strength of the dollar since 2012 plays a part in that, too. Only the US – some $70m short of Skyfall at the same third-weekend point – is seriously withholding, though it could experience a bounce on the upcoming Thanksgiving weekend. It’s likely that a diminished US take, possibly swayed by tough reviews, will be what prevents Spectre from setting a new record. Already the second most successful film in the franchise, it is still a major success – especially considering that Bond had no parachuting monarch ushering things in this time.
The XXXmas comedy
In Hollywood, Christmas comes in November. Directly Yule-themed works – slightly old-fashioned notion that they are – tend to avoid opening over the holiday period itself, to avoid whatever blockbuster may be on the prowl then. That’s the strategy adopted by new comedy The Night Before, in which Seth Rogen, Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Anthony Mackie team up as three friends in search of a legendary NYC festive pissup. Falling into the foul-mouthed, cynical-but-sweet camp of Christmas entertainment, it’s opened at $10.1m in the US and sixth place globally; in the same range as Bad Santa ($12.2m) and A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas ($12.9m). That’s a slight disappointment, given Rogen’s popularity, built up over a prolific run of comedies in the last few years. Clearly, an R-rating is a barrier not only to the kinds of debuts enjoyed by family fodder like How the Grinch Stole Christmas ($55.1m) or The Polar Express ($23.3m), but also by more adult-intended but mainstream jams like Elf and Four Christmases (both $31.1m). 2003’s Elf is an interesting case study: the third highest grossing Christmas film ever, ignoring inflation, thanks to bolstering buffoon du jour Will Ferrell with a superb high concept (Santa’s helper learns he’s actually human). Its eventual $173m US take was extremely impressive; like the sublime Bad Santa, The Night Before is too edgy to compete with that. But every Christmas gathering still needs its black sheep.
Beyond Hollywood
Mockingjay and Spectre dominating the top of the global chart while late summer’s crop of big-hitters fade allowed a host of local hits to register this week. Salman Khan’s Diwali smash Prem Ratan Dhan Payo saw a brutal -80ish% drop in India, but was holding in the worldwide rankings at 12th with a $47.4m cumulative – pegging it just outside the top 10 most successful Indian films ever. In terms of new entries, yet another retro, 90s-set romance, Our Times, took $12m in China and other territories for global fourth spot; directed by Frankie Chen, it’s already Taiwan’s top domestic hit of 2015.
Korean crime drama Inside Men, No 5 on Rentrak’s chart, set a local record for R-rated releases with $11.4m over its four-day debut – unsurprising with megastar Lee Byung-hun (I Saw the Devil; Terminator Genisys) at the head of its tale of political corruption running right to the, oh yes, top. In at No 9 was Universal’s local-language production Spanish Affair 2, hoping to match the $77.5m run for last year’s original that made it the second most successful domestic film behind JA Bayona’s The Impossible. Riffing on the same kind of regional differences that fired up France’s Bienvenue chez les Ch’tis in 2008, the sequel shifts its attention to Catalonia. Last of all on the global chart was Chinese drama Return of the Cuckoo, at 15th with $3.7m, with Julian Cheung starring as a mute abuse victim in an adaptation of a popular 2000 Hong Kong TV series.
The future
Only three weekends left before Disney unleashes its hush-hush new signing. So there’s still space for a couple of outside prospects next week: Fox’s Victor Frankenstein and Pixar’s The Good Dinosaur. The first is firmly on an “origins” tip, with Daniel Radcliffe as a not-so-disfigured Igor recounting the start of his association with James McAvoy’s body-part-pick’n’mixing doctor. Costing $90m, it’s in the same bargain-blockbuster league into which The Last Witch Hunter recently ambled, and opens initially in a batch of 25 territories including the US, France and much of Latin and South America. Going a touch wider – about 40 markets – is The Good Dinosaur, about a wide-eyed Apatosaurus living in an alternative timeline where the giant reptiles never went extinct. The film is something of an unknown quantity, having been held over from last year after losing director Bob Peterson amid creative indigestion. There’s a complete absence of buzz, let alone the thinkpiece barrage prompted by Pixar’s Inside Out over the summer, and The Good Dinosaur may struggle to match its stablemate’s $851.3m worldwide take.
Bollywood’s main offering, romantic drama Tamasha, sees rising star Deepika Padukone opposite her former real-life partner Ranbir Kapoor in a tale of a convention-bucking dreamer pictured at three points in his life. It probably won’t pitch into the spate of box-office records India has seen tumble in the second half of 2015, but it does apparently feature the country’s longest ever kissing scene.
Top 10 global box office, 20-22 November
1. (New) The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2, $247m from 88 territories – 59.1% international; 40.9% US
2. Spectre, $80.3m from 93 territories. $677.8m cumulative – 77.3% int; 22.7% US
3. The Peanuts Movie, $14.1m from 12 territories. $108.7m cum – 9% int; 91% US
4. (New) Our Times, $12m from 8 territories. $27m cum – 100% int
5. (New) Inside Men, $10.2m from 1 territory. $10.4m cum – 100% int
6. (New) The Night Before, $10.1m from 1 territory – 100% US
7. The Transporter Refuelled, $9.8m from 6 territories. $58m cum – 72.4% int; 27.6% US
8. (New) Secret in Their Eyes, $8.1m from 18 territories. $8.3m cum – 24% int; 76% US
9. (New) Spanish Affair 2, $7.4m from 1 territory – 100% int
10. Hotel Transylvania 2, $6.6m from 75 territories. $430m cum – 55% int; 45% US
• Thanks to Rentrak. This week’s figures are based on estimates; all historical figures unadjusted, unless otherwise stated.
