We're in the last few days before the election, and we're already getting a sense of what is working and not working for the candidates. The big question at this late hour is whether John McCain can find a message that will persuade undecided voters to break his way in large enough numbers to win.
Part of this post is motived by a question from our election Facebook group. Many people are asking if the Obama half-hour infomercial worked. Mike Mullane asked:
How many people watched the whole half hour? Did any of the papers run instant polls? What was your gut feeling about the Obama ad - was it a mistake? What are the bloggers saying?
Nielsen Media Research which provides the ratings doesn't say whether people watched the entire half hour, but we do know that the Obama-mercial was more popular than some of the regular programming on broadcast networks at the same time. On NBC, that might be down to the new Knight Rider being such a complete waste of time. But 33.5m people, more than 20% in most major TV markets, watched all or part of the infomerical, which is about half the number who watched the debates.
By and large, the media gushed about it. ABC's George Stephanopoulos said it was "worth every penny", which was about the most negative thing he said about it.
I've yet to find a newspaper that ran a snap poll on it. It would be expensive, an expense that most US newspapers can't afford right now, to run a snap poll just looking at an ad, even one at that length. And half-hour ads are not unprecedented in American politics. Billionaire Ross Perot ran 15 infomercials in 1992.
That leaves us to ask whether we're seeing any polls nationally or on the state level show a shift one way or another that might indicate an impact. Some 36 hours later, nationally, apart from a few outliers that show the race tightening quite dramatically, there hasn't been much movement in the polls for weeks. On the state level, there is a little movement, and most of it is not in the direction that benefits John McCain. I'll take a closer look at some of the polls later in the day. They are coming so quickly right now that it takes some effort to find the signal in the noise. I tend to discount national polls at this point and focus on the state polls.
Also one thing to watch in these polls is whether they rely on a voter turnout model from four years ago or are based on "intention to vote". Larry Sabato thinks we're going to break the 1960 "modern high water mark for voter turnout" with more than 60% of potential voters going to the polls.
My gut feeling is that as long as it didn't knock off the air the favourite show of a lot of undecided voters, the impact will be negligible. I doubt it persuaded many people who hadn't already made up their minds. The two potential returns on Obama's $4m investement are making sure that his supporters don't get complacent and fail to vote and that it displaced coverage of McCain for another 24-hour news cycle.
What are bloggers saying? From the great state of Alaska, the blogger behind Own the Sidewalk reports:
After I voted, I stopped by my bank and mentioned to the teller that I'd just voted. So had she. She told me she's been a Republican all her life but just couldn't bring herself to vote for McCain and Palin. After watching the "infomercial," she and her husband had decided to vote for Obama.
One voter does not a wave make, but the number of Republicans who I've met who are voting for Obama this year, sometimes voting for a Democrat for the first time in their lives, shows that this isn't an isolated case.
Conservative blogger Ed Morrissey dismissed the half-hour infomercial as a flop. He does make a good point. The 21.7% figure is combined across five networks, but seeing as it was beating the regular programming on the broadcast networks adds counter-balancing context to that figure.
As I said, the infomercial won't have changed minds, especially in the US political blogosphere where people tend not to sit on the fence. The infomercial should be seen in the context of Obama'a Powell doctrine campaign of totally overwhelming McCain on every level. Obama is drowning out McCain on the air. Obama and his army of paid and volunteer staff dwarf even the vaunted 72-hour GOTV (get out the vote) effort that George Bush orchestrated in 2000 and 2004. Obama is forcing McCain to make tough choices, including pulling money out of GOTV efforts to counter Obama's advantage in advertising.
Joe the Plumber argument not working
While the informercial was an expensive (albeit affordable for Team Obama) wash, McCain's "Joe the Plumber" tax argument doesn't seem to be winning over undecided voters. Brian Schaffner at Pollster.com looks at the numbers and explains why. John McCain is treading on 'dangerous ground when he criticises Obama for wanting to raise taxes on wealthier Americans, and Brian says:
Another problem with using "Joe the Plumber" to criticize the redistribution of wealth is that this argument doesn't seem to have any particular appeal for the demographic "Joe the Plumber" is supposed to represent--working class whites.
John McCain is facing a tough fight to the close. He's having to make difficult decisions with limited resources. Barack Obama's decision not to accept public campaign financing, which would have put his campaign on par financially with John McCain, might have been a broken promise, but it's allowed the Obama to completely overwhelm McCain on almost every level. Public financing of presidential campaigns will have to be overhauled to remain relevant after this election.
Thanks for the question Mike. Keep them coming. If you've got a question, leave them in the comments. I'll try to answer as many as possible in the closing days of this election.
