In July, Scotland’s first minister, John Swinney, set out a three-stage plan to achieve separation from the United Kingdom. Part one would “build the highest levels of support possible” for independence. Part two involved a plan to “turn the heat up on Westminster” to concede a new referendum. Part three would require an “emphatic win” in next May’s Scottish parliament elections.
If Mr Swinney’s plan sounded familiar, that’s because it is. Previous nationalist first ministers have tried similar strategies in recent times – but all without success. Mr Swinney may meet a similar fate, because the Scottish National party looks unlikely to be able to deliver. Support for independence hovers around the 50% mark, but the UK government will not concede a referendum, while the SNP, although leading in the polls in Scotland, currently has the support of only about a third of voters.
Assuming the polls stay the same, Mr Swinney could form a minority government next May, but not a coalition with a majority. Attempts to portray such an outcome as an independence referendum mandate would thus seem doomed to fail. The reality is therefore that independence is likely to remain off the table well beyond 2026. This will not please a lot of party activists, some of whom will try to lower the bar to a second referendum at the October SNP conference.
The hard truth is that the coming months will be bittersweet for the party. A fifth successive Holyrood victory would be a formidable SNP achievement, and a humiliation to Labour. Mr Swinney would also be entitled to say he had steadied the ship after the tumult of the Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf resignations in 2023 and 2024. But the next Holyrood parliament looks set to be the most fragmented yet, especially with the arrival of a large Reform UK presence.
The danger to the SNP, alongside the reward, is thus very real. Mr Swinney may struggle to get any divisive legislation through. Every compromise he makes will offend some party interest group or other. He is one of the last active members of the generation who have governed Scotland continuously since Alex Salmond’s 2007 victory. It is increasingly likely that he may face a leadership challenge at some point.
Such a process is fraught with problems for the SNP. The party is a fractious place. In the past few weeks, two of the SNP’s most prominent women of the past decade have stepped away. Mhairi Black, on the left, quit the Commons last year and has now left the party altogether. Kate Forbes, the deputy first minister and a social conservative, has now announced she will not stand for Holyrood next May.
These are serious losses, not just to the party but to Scotland’s civic life. Despite their many obvious contrasts, the two are charismatic and talented personalities with high public profiles. Their decisions are not flattering about the culture of the SNP, or that of Scottish politics more widely. Ms Forbes, in particular, gave her party and the Swinney leadership the balance and credibility that was needed in the wake of the troubled Sturgeon and Yousaf exits.
Mr Swinney has said he will serve a full term if re-elected. Yet challengers are already circling, and Mr Swinney may not have it his own way. As ever, the SNP talks as if tomorrow is its to command. After nearly 20 years of power, however, cracks are increasingly hard to disguise.
