The Scottish National party’s manifesto, which was launched in Perth on Tuesday, is a sign that politics in Scotland is changing in important ways. The change is summed up in the statistics in party leader Nicola Sturgeon’s launch speech. There were no references to the word referendum and only one to independence, but there were four references to austerity, eight to poverty and 12 references to the Tories.
This is important because the dominant question in Scottish politics today remains not economic fairness but the constitution. The SNP exists to achieve Scottish independence. Its run of electoral successes from 2007 to the present, and even its failure in the 2014 referendum, have redefined Scottish politics from a focus on economic questions to a focus on Scotland’s relationship with the UK.
But the SNP has miscalculated the impact of the Brexit vote on Scottish opinion. Under pressure from her predecessor Alex Salmond, Ms Sturgeon responded to Scotland’s remain vote by promising a rapid second independence referendum before the Brexit deal is complete. This pledge has backfired. Support for a second vote has declined. So has support for independence. So too has support for the SNP and for Ms Sturgeon.
Ruth Davidson’s Scottish Conservatives have stepped into the vacuum. In 2016 they became the main opposition party in the Holyrood elections. This year, the Tories have begun threatening the SNP’s Westminster seats too. As the SNP’s opinion poll popularity has waned, there has been talk among nationalists of a loss of perhaps 15 seats in next week’s UK election. This sounds like expectation management, and should not be swallowed whole, but it is suggestive of an ebbing of SNP control in Scotland from its previously record-breaking levels.
The result was Ms Sturgeon’s pivot on Tuesday away from Scotland’s constitutional divide towards its economic divide. In a significant move, the SNP now says a second independence vote would follow, not precede, the Brexit process. That could still mean a vote in 2019, but there are good reasons for suspecting the delay will be longer. Theresa May repeated on Tuesday that Scottish devolution may be a big gainer from the Brexit process. If Scottish opinion decides it can live with the Brexit deal – though this is far from certain – the SNP will not necessarily rush into a fresh vote.
Instead, the SNP’s manifesto puts Tory economic policy in its crosshairs. The document is heavy with pledges to oppose further cuts and raise UK taxes. The overall objective is to bolster the SNP as a party of social justice – Ms Sturgeon’s policies on health and schools have come under fire in recent months – and discourage tactical voting for Tory challengers to sitting SNP MPs, including Mr Salmond himself. The SNP still commands the election in Scotland, but the manifesto is proof that its grip may be beginning to weaken.
