Scottish independence is what the Scottish National party exists to achieve. So, for as long as the SNP is in power, or is in contention, independence will never be far off the agenda. That was true after the SNP first won in 2007, but it was held in check for four years by the government’s minority status. The issue was let out of the bottle after the SNP won a majority in 2011, pledged to a referendum; but this duly led to the 55%-45% defeat in 2014. Now, with the 2016 Holyrood election looming, and with the re-energised SNP odds-on for a third term, the question of what to promise about independence, and what to do about it if re-elected, arises in yet another new and different context.
Over three days at its Aberdeen conference last week the SNP leadership, led by first minister Nicola Sturgeon, did their best to define a clear new approach to its signature commitment. As Ms Sturgeon put it in her closing address on Saturday, the SNP will never waver in its commitment to independence. But, as she said on Thursday, the voters’ 2014 verdict has to be respected. The last thing the SNP wants is an early second defeat on the cause it holds dear.
That means the SNP has decided to adopt a tactical approach to holding a second referendum. It will campaign next May on the basis that there will only be another referendum when there is “clear evidence that opinion has changed”. Views will always differ as to what that means. A majority of her party seem to want a new vote before 2020. But many in the SNP high command are more cautious. They privately believe that 60% support for independence in the polls for around 12 months will be necessary before a second vote is launched. That is a high threshold. It could mean a second vote may not come until the 2020s at the earliest. Ms Sturgeon says she will know if and when that moment has been reached. It could come if Scotland votes to stay in Europe while the rest of the United Kingdom votes to leave – but perhaps it will not come even then.
This is inescapably a fuzzier position than the zealots want. It could also be a more difficult one to manage. It lacks the clarity of the position in the 2007 Scottish parliament, when independence was off the table, or the 2011 parliament, when it was front and centre. It highlights the limitations of single-issue nationalism. Yet it is hard to see what else the SNP can do. There is no point in pushing blindly for a second referendum if the result would be the same as in 2014. Yet the party cannot abandon its defining policy either. The SNP has to watch and wait, attempt to broaden its appeal by campaigning on other social and economic issues, which is exactly what Ms Sturgeon is trying to do, while exerting pressure for the mood on independence to change. The Tory party has often helped that process in the past, and it may easily do so again, not least this week when it promotes its English agenda again.
The new stance will be denounced by the SNP’s opponents for slipperiness. It will be opposed by nationalist fundamentalists for selling the cause short. Since the issue will never go away as long as the SNP is in a position of power, the party will simply have to live with the fact that the issue has become more volatile. It would be a mistake to think that the SNP may be losing control of the independence issue. But the new chapter will be full of volatility that will test the SNP’s legendary message discipline to the full.
