As Barack Obama arrives in Britain on Thursday, the choice facing Americans about his White House successor has just got a bit clearer. It isn’t too often that the New York primary shapes a US presidential race, but this year it may have put both the Republican and the Democratic frontrunners back on track to win their respective nominations in the summer.
After his defeat at the hands of Ted Cruz in Wisconsin at the start of this month, Donald Trump suddenly looked as if his drive to the nomination, which was beginning to appear irresistible in March, was faltering. There was serious talk of the party trying to unify around the ultra-conservative Mr Cruz in an attempt to wrest the prize from Mr Trump’s hands at the convention. But Mr Trump’s money, organisation and blue-collar appeal in a state where he has made so much of his fame and fortune proved stronger. An establishment rally to deprive the populist interloper of his victory is still a possibility, but it is now a lot harder to pull off and the consequences could be more hazardous.
Hillary Clinton’s victory in the Democratic contest may once have seemed predictable. But a succession of wins for the socialist Bernie Sanders had spurred talk of a massive upset. The New York primary had become a must-win for Mrs Clinton, who might have struggled to keep a Sanders bandwagon in check if she had lost. The projected 16-point margin of her victory makes the remarkable Sanders campaign a long shot once again.
Both races will continue, and continue to be fierce. But the losers from New York face big decisions. Does the Republican party have the nerve, organisation and alternative candidate to stop Mr Trump? And should the Democrats begin to unite around Mrs Clinton and her programme? Neither of these things is easy, and there are still important primaries in play. But a Trump v Clinton contest now looks a bit more probable than before.
