Boris Johnson is still suggesting it could all be over by Christmas. The public, as well as Conservative MPs, can be forgiven for scepticism. The government has made too many promises on coronavirus, and done too little, too late, too often. We are already paying the price. As England began its second lockdown on Thursday, almost 500 deaths linked to Covid-19 were recorded in the UK. Those numbers will climb: Sir Simon Stevens, chief executive of NHS England, warned that hospitals hold 11,000 Covid patients, up from 2,000 in early October. How high the daily death tolls rise, and how long they continue, will depend on whether the government and public use these four weeks wisely. How long restrictions last, how strict they are and whether we must face them repeatedly also depends on what happens in the coming days.
The abrupt announcement by the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, that he was extending the furlough scheme until March was a welcome but too tardy U-turn, like the lockdown itself. It is further proof that there will be no return to life as normal on 2 December. Wednesday’s Tory rebellion on the new measures resulted from the sense that the government has no long-term plan or ability to handle this pandemic, as well as from libertarianism. Restrictions could yet be tightened: while keeping schools open has been a priority, for good reasons, it may not be right if the picture becomes much worse.
Blaming the public for failing to comply with previous rules is unfair and ill-advised: most have done as they were told, and many have gone further. The government must take the rap for ill-judged, short-lived and confusing policies and messages, its rush to get people back into workplaces and restaurants, and its decision to turn a blind eye to breaches by its friends. While people have a duty to act responsibly, focusing on individual breaches is neither sensible nor helpful. Compliance cannot be won by fines alone or public shaming; it requires the ability and willingness to cooperate. The government must do a better job of communicating the risks and its reasoning. Sir Simon’s clear explanation at Thursday’s press conference showed what could be done. Fairness matters too. The last-minute extension of the furlough has fuelled the sense that the government is more concerned about the impact of the pandemic in southern England than in the north or other nations. For its own sake, and for the union’s, the government must engage in real consultation with regional and national leaders.
To paraphrase Churchill on democracy, lockdowns are the worst possible option except for all the others. They have profoundly negative effects on individuals, communities and the economy. They are not sustainable indefinitely. Nonetheless, this one is necessary. It should prevent the health service from collapsing under the strain and buy time in the hope of progress on treatments, vaccines and, critically, test and trace. The performance of the centralised system has plunged to new lows, with the service reaching just under 60% of close contacts of those who had tested positive. Though local health protection teams have performed much better, tracing simply cannot keep up with the current level of infections.
Millions have been living under tight rules for months. They may fear that what the prime minister called light at the end of the tunnel could be another train coming: a certain sense of hopelessness as well as weariness is evident. But this lockdown should help to turn the tide. The government’s task is to persuade the public of that – and then to prove their faith right.
