Little things can mean a lot. The minutiae of diplomatic protocol seem trivial when the subjects on the G20’s table are so huge, including climate change, global economic growth, tensions in the South China Sea and – for the UK – the fall-out from the vote for Brexit. Yet the red carpet-less greeting for Barack Obama in China matters more than one might think. Even the British and Japanese prime ministers got the VIP reception, despite Theresa May’s Hinkley Point hesitations and Tokyo’s fraught relationship with Beijing. Only the US president had to use what one might call the Naughty Steps, an uncarpeted flight descending from the bowels of the plane.
Cock-up or conspiracy? Chinese arrangements can be surprisingly last minute, and official visits are frequently tense. But at the very minimum, it shows a telling carelessness from a nation so consumed by presentational issues that rooftops in the host city of Hangzhou were reportedly repainted to improve aerial views. The G20 is supposed to reinforce the country’s standing as a major power; the row has made China look petty, bolshy and graceless, rather than confident and magnanimous. Had the Chinese president received this welcome at a US-hosted summit, the cries that the US had hurt the feelings of the Chinese people would have been deafening.
That formulation, peculiar to western ears from a country so large and powerful, has a potent history behind it. Xi Jinping has doubled down on the Communist party’s heavy promotion of the idea of a “century of humiliation” at the hands of foreign powers, from the Opium wars onwards. Without a democratic mandate, its leadership rests on its provision of a better standard of living (a task getting harder by the year) and its restoration of national pride. Deng Xiaoping, focused on domestic development, urged his country to “hide our brightness, bide our time”. As China began to reemerge as a world power, some in the region feared a new Goliath. But the country itself thought it was David, still kicked about by bullies.
Then, in late 2008, came the global financial crisis. Beijing began to believe the hype that China had saved the world. It read Mr Obama’s attempt to reset relations as a sign of weakness, and was alarmed by his subsequent “pivot” to Asia. Not unreasonably, it believes the US wants to maintain its power in the Pacific and contain China’s rise. It chafes at criticism from western powers that portray themselves as disinterested moral voices even when the stakes are evident and even though, in their own ascendancy, they bullied and beat down others. As rising states do, it is pushing the boundaries. It wants to reshape international institutions created in a very different age, and will build its own if others resist.
It is not only, or even primarily, the west that is alarmed by China’s more xenophobic tone and increasingly forceful stance. The irony is that Beijing wanted the summit to present a more attractive image to the world, highlighting its global contribution. It wants to reshape the G20 into a more effective format, tackling problems strategically instead of summoning ad hoc responses to the latest crisis. It wants to portray itself as a bridge between the “global south” and “global north”, hence the invitation of countries such as Chad. It has flagged up space cooperation and its peacekeeping contribution. And then it undid its hard work with a foolish row on an airport runway.
The dangers of misplaying its hand are evident at home, too, as Sunday’s legislative council elections in Hong Kong demonstrate. The region enjoys considerable autonomy under the “one country, two systems” framework introduced on its return to China, but the party’s tightening grip has alienated large parts of the community, who now see themselves primarily as Hong Kongers rather than Chinese citizens and who are even, in some cases, prepared to support independence calls they would previously have shunned as ridiculous. While some are intimidated into taking Beijing’s line, others are pushed into confrontation.
The conclusions for China are obvious, though it does not appear to be drawing them. Other countries have much to learn too. They should continue to push back on issues from China’s actions in the South China Sea to the sweeping crackdown under Mr Xi’s leadership and attempts to export its controls on expression. But they must also help to build a positive role for China in the world – even when, as Mr Obama’s arrival shows, engagement is far from easy.
