There has been no more important European Union summit for years than the one that took place in Brussels on Monday on the migration crisis. Coping properly with the refugees who streamed into Europe in 2015 remains unfinished business. But preventing 2016 turning into a second, and possibly bigger, version of 2015 is now at least as pressing. By comparison, Britain’s arguments with the EU are second-order problems at best.
Whether the summit will prove to have risen to the challenge undoubtedly depends in part on the terms of the agreement that the EU and Turkey were hoping to produce last night. Far more than that, though, it depends on implementation. And since that implementation is in the hands of countries that mainly put self-interest and the fear of refugees above other considerations in 2015, it is hard to be optimistic this time.
On the other hand, every player has a huge amount riding on a solution that works. The EU itself could hardly have a greater collective self-interest. After all, three of its fundamental principles are at stake: that the continent’s problems can be best solved by cooperation; that freedom of movement across the EU is in the public interest; and a belief in European values and respect for human rights. The record so far is mixed, going on feeble. A lot also hangs on any deal for the member states individually. Angela Merkel, for instance, facing a mounting domestic backlash against her liberal and humanitarian approach last summer, needs a workable agreement that will ease tensions in Germany in advance of three critically important regional elections this coming weekend. Other states with liberal policies have found themselves in the same position.
Alexis Tsipras, meanwhile, needs the flow of people into Greece to be brought under control if he is to retain a grip on Athens’ already strained relations with Europe. This is why getting the Turks to bear even more of the weight than they are already doing is so crucial, and why EU naval solidarity matters too. For its part, Turkey had to drive a hard bargain to impress its own domestic opinion at a time when there is international anger about Turkish human rights abuses.
Even David Cameron needs a deal that works. Britain may have played a detached role in 2015, but with the EU referendum looming, Mr Cameron desperately needs a big effective deal that cannot just ease the refugee question in the public mind but can also show voters that working together at the EU level can deliver.
In the end, though, those who matter most are not the politicians. They are the people driven out of Syria by civil war, with little hope of an early return, and who are prepared to risk everything on the seas, across the mountains and up against the barbed wire border fences. Yes, the politics matters hugely, everywhere. But in the end, as BBC1’s powerful Frontline Doctors documentary showed once again on Monday night, the ultimate test of any deal must be the way it treats suffering fellow humans.
