Almost two years after Theresa May triggered article 50 it is still unclear when, in what form and how Brexit will occur – even to the prime minister. Any country invoking the Lisbon treaty’s clause of departure leaves the European Union after two years. It is a mark of failure that Mrs May is left pinning her hopes on the EU27 unanimously agreeing to extend that deadline. The trouble is that European leaders, not unreasonably, want to know what the prime minister intends to do with the extra time. She appears guarded about her plans largely because she is still struggling to draw them up.
This is not because Mrs May has been caught unawares – a now routine reaction from Downing Street that has worn thin. Parliament has twice resoundingly defeated her Brexit deal and has rejected no deal. With time running out, the third option is an article 50 extension. The prime minister voted for such a delay – but the majority of her party did not. Ministers cannot hide behind John Bercow’s decision to stop the government wearing MPs down by putting the same deal before them that they have spurned before. The threat from the Speaker had been flagged up for weeks to Downing Street, was rooted in precedent, and ought to have been part of Mrs May’s parliamentary calculations.
If a delay is to be granted, Brussels’ chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, is right to say it has to be for a purpose, with a strategy or an aim. Within a matter of days Mrs May should lay out in detail what she is proposing for the future. It would be irresponsible if she had voted for an extension but had given no thought about how to convince European partners to give the UK a delay. One can only assume that she has such a plan and is keeping her powder dry, lest the hardliners spike her guns. Any proposal will have to go beyond the negotiations with dissident MPs in both the Conservative party and its coalition partner, the DUP. Mrs May appears unable to see that rebel MPs are irreconcilable to her personally as leader, let alone her Brexit deal. The leaks suggest she will ask the EU for both a long and a short extension. The implication is that she does not really know what she wants. The problem is that she does not have the full support of her government, or even her cabinet.
The EU will only accept an extension if it improves the chances that the Westminster impasse can be resolved without Britain leaving the EU with no agreed divorce terms in place. An extension ought to give time to rethink Mrs May’s red lines, as sticking to them gave rise to the controversial Irish backstop. A long enough delay would allow the government time to adjust its thinking, and give the EU a reason to respond in kind.
A meaningful pause would also allow time to reflect on whether this form of Brexit is what the country wants. This is about Mrs May giving back control – both to parliament and to the people. The Guardian has already made it clear that, if required, this country should have a debate on Europe. Taking part in European parliamentary elections would be a good place to start. The advocate general at the European court of justice has also pointed out that such elections would not represent an “insuperable obstacle” to extending article 50.
Britain has a deadlocked parliament, a divided country and a rising distrust between MPs and voters. There is no face-saving fix, made in a smoky room, that will rebuild trust and unity. The two main arguments made in favour of leaving the EU rested on propaganda about hidden levels of immigration and Brussels’ encroachment into UK sovereignty. These beliefs, false but honestly held, can only be shaken by addressing questions of inequality, integration, and political participation. Politics in the age of Brexit has too often been framed as happening elsewhere, far removed from voters’ daily lives. To get a grip on Britain, Mrs May must learn to relax hers.
