All news media will have to be scrupulously careful for several months about anything to do with the arrest and charges against Scotland’s former first minister Alex Salmond. The Guardian will observe that strictness for as long as required. Certain bare facts are, nevertheless, public and can be repeated. The former SNP leader was charged onThursday on 14 criminal counts, including two of attempted rape and nine of sexual assault, some of which are punishable by anything up to life imprisonment after a conviction. After a hearing in Edinburgh, Mr Salmond emerged from the sheriff court to protest in characteristically strong terms that he is innocent of “any criminality whatsoever”. He was released on bail. The charges are extremely serious. The case now goes to trial. For now, the rest must be silence.
Yet political life must also go on, in Scotland as everywhere else, and journalistic comment about Scottish politics must go on too. Politics cannot shut up shop for the duration. So it must surely be proper to say – putting it as neutrally as possible – that the trial and its outcome will hang over political life in Scotland until it is resolved and will do much to shape Scottish politics once it is concluded. The impact within and on the SNP will be inescapably substantial. The implications of that impact, in both Scottish and UK politics, will extend into many issues, from Brexit to the future of the UK, and may affect the possible outcomes of future elections too.
Mr Salmond is still the most significant figure in modern Scottish politics. He is one of the most consequential in the politics of Britain too. He led the SNP from the margins into government. He led the independence campaign that came close to victory in 2014. The party that he forged is still the dominant force in Scottish politics – and has been in government for nearly 12 years. Although he is no longer an MP or an MSP, Mr Salmond remains at the forefront of the campaign for a second independence referendum.
Mr Salmond’s political influence has nevertheless been in decline since he stepped down as first minister in 2014. He returned to Westminster in 2015 as part of the SNP landslide. But he struggled to find the right role there, and his defeat in 2017, when the SNP lost 21 of its 56 seats, has left him without a parliamentary or executive platform. It would not be true to pretend that he is the big beast in Scottish politics that he once was. But nor is it true to pretend that he is nothing but a figure from history. He remains, along with his chosen successor Nicola Sturgeon, one of the party’s two biggest names. He still sees himself as a champion of the radical independence supporters who were drawn into politics in 2014. He was not afraid to make life difficult for Ms Sturgeon, long before the current breach between them began to open up. Ironically, it is unlikely that, after these charges, Ms Sturgeon is now going to call a second referendum any time soon.
Because of the charges, any attempt to assess the Salmond case and its significance must be postponed to another day. Yet political debate must go on. There are other inquiries in the pipeline too which will also have eventual political consequences. Ms Sturgeon referred herself to an ethics inquiry after Mr Salmond won a ruling in the court of session earlier this month. Holyrood has now launched its own inquiry too. The SNP is helped by Scottish Labour’s weakness and the absence of the Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson, on maternity leave until May. It remains robustly strong in the opinion polls. Yet it is indisputable that 2019 will be a challenging year for the nationalist cause – and it is barely Burns Night.
