The crises keep coming for Jacob Zuma, and if some in South Africa believe he will ride them out, others wonder how many lives he has left. Today it was the call for a full judicial inquiry into allegations of corruption at the top level of government by the recently departed public protector, Thuli Madonsela, whose report warned of serious concerns that the president allowed the billionaire Gupta family to influence the selections of cabinet ministers. The document, entitled State of Capture, explains much of the opposition to Mr Zuma: the belief that his leadership has led to a huge expansion in patronage politics, not only raising moral and legal concerns but damaging the country’s capacity to develop. It comes days after the chief prosecutor dropped fraud charges against the widely respected finance minister, Pravin Gordhan, who had dismissed them as politically motivated. Earlier this year, Mr Zuma was forced to apologise after South Africa’s top court ruled that he had breached the constitution in refusing to repay government funds used in an £11m upgrade to his private residence.
All of this comes at a cost for ordinary South Africans, further denting a stagnant economy, and miring a political class in infighting when it could be tackling the country’s immense challenges, notably its enduring poverty and inequality. Street protests will not determine Mr Zuma’s future, but they are indicative of the pressures he faces. African National Congress politicians know their remaining moral authority is haemorrhaging and that the bleeding cannot be stopped while Mr Zuma is in charge. The condemnations are gathering force: this week the Nelson Mandela Foundation – which has previously shunned political statements – warned that the wheels are coming off the state thanks to his political meddling for private interests.
Nor – and this should concentrate the party’s minds – can the ANC stem its loss of political support, which has already cost it control of major cities in this year’s local elections. It will not regain this support as long as Mr Zuma is in charge. His previously solid rural support base is showing signs of weakening and even his closer supporters may be thinking again – patronage networks can last only as long as there are prizes to distribute. Whether internal opposition to Mr Zuma is coherent enough for rivals to challenge him directly remains to be seen.
Whatever the president’s future, there is cause for optimism as well as concern. The apparently endless controversies surrounding him are testimony to what South Africa has got right as well as what Mr Zuma and his friends have got wrong. Tellingly, the president dropped his legal attempt to block the report’s release: the country still has strong courts, a vibrant media and a lively civil society – as evidenced by the student protests that led to the scrapping of fee increases. Its institutions have so far stood up to Mr Zuma and pushed back to maintain their independence. South Africa’s constitution has played an important role in all this, as have parts of the ANC. So too have individuals such as Ms Madonsela, much admired for her tenacity in the face of intense political pressure. A growing number of people are dismayed and distressed by Mr Zuma’s actions, but these struggles are a powerful reminder of why institution-building matters.
