Wednesday night brought a grim return to Russia’s form: one of the heaviest air raids on Kyiv since the full-scale invasion began. Moscow eased off its strikes on major cities in the run-up to the Alaska summit, and it held off its attack on the Ukrainian capital until Keith Kellogg, the US special envoy, had finished his visit there. But within hours of his departure, at least 18 people, including several children, were dead in an attack on a residential block, and the European Union mission had been severely damaged.
Donald Trump periodically suggests that he is drawing a line for Vladimir Putin. Yet each time he appears to set a limit, the Russian president breezes through it. The Kyiv attack shows that it is Mr Putin who is testing the US president. Mr Trump threatened “severe consequences” if Moscow did not immediately agree to a ceasefire – but in Anchorage was quickly persuaded by Mr Putin that there was no need for one prior to a peace deal.
“I think in many ways he’s there,” Mr Trump told reporters on Tuesday. But Russia’s diplomatic stalling, allowing it to continue to grind away on the battlefield, is transparent. The lethal strike on civilians in Kyiv shows exactly what it thinks of peace talks. As Mr Trump also remarked: “Every conversation I have with [Mr Putin] is a good conversation. And then unfortunately, a bomb is loaded up into Kyiv or someplace, and then I get very angry about it.”
The US president appears unable to draw the obvious conclusion, and his anger has yet to convert into action. He continues to cast blame on Volodymyr Zelenskyy (“not exactly innocent either”) for Russia’s unprovoked invasion. Mr Trump floated the idea of sanctions again, but only when pressed. His one concrete move – doubling the tariff on most Indian goods to 50% – was billed as punishment for New Delhi’s Russian oil imports.
In fact, those imports had been quietly encouraged by Washington to steady world markets, and European countries have bought oil from India once it has been refined. The real trigger was India’s refusal to scrap farm protections, an issue for Mr Trump’s base. This was domestic politics rebadged as Russia policy, and a headache for New Delhi, not for Moscow.
Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, accused Moscow of targeting the EU in its Wednesday night strike. That’s unlikely to worry the White House. European leaders know that their ability to shape its worldview is restricted and intermittent. The result may last only until Mr Trump’s next conversation, or next glimpse of a talking head on Fox News.
They continue to make maximal efforts and compromises for limited returns. The US has reportedly stopped sharing information on any potential Ukraine-Russia deal even with the members of the anglophone Five Eyes intelligence-sharing community.
Given that, European governments are unlikely to get carried away by the reported willingness of the US to contribute intelligence and air support to a postwar force in Ukraine. Whether the posited reassurance force will actually materialise, and if so in what form, remains to be seen. But in the absence of the ceasefire that would have to precede it, Europe must make clear that it will not waver in its support for Kyiv. In probing Mr Trump’s intentions, Mr Putin is also probing Europe’s resolve. It cannot afford to fail this test.
