Recent warnings about Russia’s behaviour have become as numerous as they have been, at times, alarmist. Which isn’t to say they are unfounded. The director general of MI5 in a Guardian interview has now added his voice to a widening group of western officials who describe Russia as a threat, and against which new thinking must be developed. In the past months, Russia has been accused of trying to disrupt the US election through hacking, it has deployed nuclear-capable missiles in Kaliningrad and flown bomber planes across Europe. Moscow has pursued policies in Syria that have less to do with fighting Isis than with carpet bombing civilians.
If Vladimir Putin’s narrative is to make Russia great again, there is by now little doubt he will resort to a wide spectrum of actions, both hard and soft power, to attain that goal. That western officials have been repeatedly caught off-guard says perhaps as much about the illusions or shortfalls of past “reset” policies as it does about the slickness with which the Kremlin has learned, over the years, to read western societies and the way their leaders react – or fail to. More than a decade ago Mr Putin revealed his thinking in an annual address to parliament comparing the US to a Russian folk tale character, remarking: “Comrade wolf knows who to eat.” Few, at the time, could have predicted what would unfold: the first redrawing of borders in Europe through use of force since the second world war (annexation of Crimea), and a pattern of geopolitical confrontation that some have dubbed cold war 2.0.
The Kremlin believes the time has come to seek a form of revenge on the west for having “humiliated” Russia after the dissolution of the USSR. That Russia’s economic collapse in the 1990s and the enlargement of Nato and the EU resulted from decades of communist mismanagement and the legitimate aspirations of nations factors little into this vision. Today the west and Russia find themselves talking past each other on almost all issues. Putin’s propaganda machine has made inroads into the west by exploiting its openness, all the while repressing those who, inside Russia, dare dissent.
What is to be done to avoid escalation? Talk of nuclear confrontation has become commonplace in Russia, something that points to the need for renewed deterrence. Making sure eastern European allies are protected is not provocation. Nato’s new deployments in the Baltic region and Poland are a reaction to, and not the cause of, Russia’s military adventurism in its neighbourhood. The best way to discourage more Russian revisionism is to make clear that red lines will be defended. Europe can ill afford to let the worst of the 20th century catch up with it in the 21st century. On wider international issues, pressure must be applied wherever it is smart and effective to do so. Spain’s recent refusal to refuel Russia’s aircraft carrier on its way to Syria was an example of how to catch Moscow’s attention. Sanctions over Moscow’s activity in Ukraine should be kept in place until ceasefire requirements are met. Europeans would do well to forge a common response to Russian policies in Syria, which should be seen as part of a wider pattern: chaos on Europe’s doorstep, including refugee movements, serves Mr Putin’s interests because they feed the illiberal forces of which he approves.
This is not to say Russia must be quarantined, nor its leader entirely shunned. Partly what matters is language. Speaking of Russia as a “partner” no longer equates to realities, if only because Moscow consistently relinquishes genuine cooperation and openly casts itself as an alternative, hostile model no longer very interested in international rules. Diplomacy without leverage can be empty choreography, as talks over Syria have shown. Nor should Russia’s power be exaggerated. Its economy is ailing. It has few allies, with China an awkward friend. Mr Putin may choose to designate external enemies and encourage a fortress mentality for domestic consumption, but that does little to bring the investments his country badly needs if it is ever to modernise. The Russian president has shrewdly exploited whatever gaps western powers have offered him, whether through neglect, divisiveness or miscalculation. Mr Putin once said: “the weak get beaten”. He believes the west is weak, hypocritical and decadent. The short-term answer should be a resolute show of transatlantic unity – a question that hangs over the US election. Dialogue with Russia should come with smart leverage – neither aggressive nor complacent. It’s likely the Russian question will not go away for a long time yet – Mr Putin plans to get re-elected in 2018.
