On Monday, Maxim Znak described his fear of detention or violence as one of the last leading members of Belarus’s opposition coordination council to still be free in the country. On Wednesday morning, masked men seized the lawyer and activist in Minsk. That left only the Nobel laureate Svetlana Alexievich. European diplomats rushed to her apartment after the 72-year-old said more masked men had attempted to break in.
Hours beforehand, Maria Kolesnikova had been detained on suspicion of state treason, having torn up her passport when, she says, authorities threatened to deport her “alive or in bits”. The other leading council members had already been seized or forced to flee.
Twenty-six years after he came to power and a month after the rigged presidential election sparked the protests, Alexander Lukashenko has demonstrated through both words and ruthless deeds that he will not go unless he is forced out. He still controls the security forces. Moscow, which initially appeared to be weighing its options, appears to have concluded that it should prop up a man it has often regarded as an irritant – at least until a convenient opportunity arrives to replace him with someone suitable. Vladimir Putin, due to meet him next week, has no desire for the victory of a democratically elected opposition which might invigorate domestic dissent in Russia.
Mr Lukashenko needs both thugs and the Kremlin, because he has lost the people. Those not enraged by another dubious election result were stirred to fury by the torture of protesters. On Sunday 100,000 marched on the president’s residence for the fourth weekend in a row. He is gambling that persecuting the coordination council, as well as menacing peaceful protesters, will intimidate his country back into line. Ms Alexievich counters that hundreds will take the place of those who are being snatched. This is a decentralised, spontaneous, fluid and persistent movement, kindling into action courtyard by courtyard, and on the Telegram app. At various times, women’s marches, workers’ strikes and student actions have come to the fore.
Mr Lukashenko’s meeting with the Russian president will, presumably, establish just how much support he can expect, and at what price. What support can protesters muster? EU plans to impose sanctions on senior Belarusian officials have reportedly been held up by the row between Turkey and Cyprus. The west’s options are limited not only by internal wranglings, but also by the fears that Mr Lukashenko will exploit greater involvement to bolster his claim that opponents are the puppets of foreign powers, and will increase Russia’s role in Belarus. But if sympathisers cannot do a great deal, they should not resign themselves to doing nothing. Measures such as the visit to Ms Alexievich, while essentially symbolic, are nonetheless valuable. Nor should they resign themselves to the crushing of opposition. The prospects for protesters look grim. But when they refuse to concede defeat, others should not do it for them.
Greater than the dread of arrest and violence, Mr Znak said before his detention, is another fear: that nothing will change for another 26 years. Mr Lukashenko has made it clear he is not going anywhere. Those who have risen up against him have shown that they are equally determined.
