What once prompted shock now brings something closer to weariness: news of a North Korean nuclear test, followed by a round of international condemnation and probably, in due course, tightened sanctions. But while this is the fifth test since North Korea began detonating nuclear devices in 2006, it is also the second in just a year. Today’s device was the most powerful the country has set off and, while its claims to have miniaturised a nuclear warhead capable of being mounted on missiles should be taken with a pinch of salt, its programme is clearly progressing. It will not be stopped by more sanctions.
Kim Jong-un’s unpredictability, like his nuclear programme, has served North Korea well. No one likes it, but everyone has to care about it, and no one wants to mess with it. Fearful of the outside world – the elite want to protect themselves; the country was flattened by US bombs in the Korean war; and George W Bush named it in his axis of evil – North Korea has no reason to halt its programme.
Already, Beijing is being urged to rein in its ally. It greeted the test as shocking and unwise, but called for restraint. China does not hide its increasing distaste for Mr Kim. It is also deeply unhappy that his actions have prompted South Korea’s recent agreement to host a Thaad anti-missile unit at the invitation of the US. But North Korea does not listen and China is not about to turn off the tap. Cut off the oil and North Koreans would have even less heating and could end up starving.
China has a hammer, not a lever; it cannot guide the state’s policies and has no desire to see it collapse. It does not want a huge influx of refugees, nor US forces on its doorstep in a unified Korea; it fears infighting between factions with access to arms and nuclear material. Nor does it want to expend its resources to push the North Koreans into talks with Americans.
The US government was burnt by 2012’s Leap Day deal debacle, when the North Koreans launched a satellite weeks after agreeing a moratorium on long-range missile launches and nuclear tests in exchange for targeted food aid. The US saw it as a clear breach of the agreement; Pyongyang did not.
Now the administration appears to be waiting it out. Though it no longer favours the term “strategic patience” – mocked as “patience, without a strategy” – its actual approach appears unchanged. It does not regard Pyongyang as a priority, and is not sure what to do about it. That will not change in its remaining weeks. As secretary of state, Hillary Clinton compared North Korea to misbehaving small children who should be ignored. They are not too fond of her either. No one knows what Donald Trump’s policy would look like, though he previously advocated bombing North Korea if talks did not work and has said he would negotiate.
It would take a courageous president to restart talks with Pyongyang. The Iran nuclear deal was extremely difficult and highly controversial; a North Korea deal would be more so. No one wants to reward bad behaviour; at best the outcome would be a cap on development. But doing nothing is not the same as maintaining the status quo. Pyongyang will continue its race to gain weapons – and redouble its efforts if ignored. Engagement is not an attractive option; but the US should choose it, and soon.
