In January, only two months after becoming Conservative party leader, Kemi Badenoch let it be known that she would not be reshuffling her shadow cabinet team before the next election. This implausible hostage to fortune was doubtless intended to convey Mrs Badenoch’s determination that, as she rebuilt the Tory brand after a catastrophic defeat, she would not be buffeted around by passing events.
Modern British politics don’t work like that. A year ago, the Conservative share of the vote was 24%, a desperate general election nadir. Now support for the party languishes at about 17%. In May’s local elections the Tories lost close to 700 councillors and control of 16 councils, many of them to Reform UK, which leads in the polls and is viewed by Labour as its chief electoral threat. A recent survey found that only 10% of the public think Mrs Badenoch looks like a prime minister in waiting. On Tuesday, as the House of Commons went into summer recess, she duly launched a reshuffle.
For the most part it was a modest affair involving middle-ranking shadow ministers and changes to backroom staff. Mrs Badenoch’s growing number of internal critics will have hoped for something more radical. But Sir James Cleverly’s appointment as shadow to the housing secretary, Angela Rayner, will have lifted the morale of Conservatives who fear their party has embarked on a doomed march to the Faragian right.
During last autumn’s leadership contest – which he might well have won, had it not been for some ill-advised tactical voting by supporters – Sir James positioned himself as a One Nation alternative to Mrs Badenoch and Robert Jenrick. On culture war issues such as Britain’s potential withdrawal from the European court of human rights and net zero, he is likely to be a moderating force. As Nigel Farage actively seeks to stoke a summer of discontent on Britain’s streets, a revival of centre-right influence within the Conservative party would be good news for the country as a whole.
For the Tories it would also signal a more viable route to relevance than becoming a Jenrick-inspired tribute act to Reform. In a fragmented and polarised landscape, the Conservatives are haemorrhaging support both to the authoritarian right and the liberal centre. Mrs Badenoch has yet to find a way to successfully fight on two fronts, and has hitherto shown little interest in addressing the political wounds on her party’s left flank. Whether Sir James’s appointment is intended to redress that imbalance, or is simply an attempt to shore up party unity behind her, remains to be seen.
In the meantime, Mrs Badenoch’s prospects continue to look bleak. A relatively cautious reshuffle – the promotion of the Johnson-era levelling up minister Neil O’Brien being the only other intriguing move – will not in itself solve the party’s underlying dilemmas over direction. It is also unlikely to spark a feelgood upturn in the polls.
As speculation swirls around her leadership, Tory commentators have begun to talk ominously of November, the earliest point at which a challenge can be launched. It seems extremely unlikely that she could survive another disastrous round of local elections next year, when heavy losses are on the cards in Wales and Scotland. Having taken over intending to take her time, Mrs Badenoch’s annus horribilis means she now has little time left to make an impact.
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