Israel faces a stark choice. So do its allies. International condemnation pushed Israel into allowing a trickle of aid into Gaza. But it remains utterly insufficient, and Palestinians are still starving to death. Israel has killed more than 62,000 people, mostly women and children, according to Gaza’s health ministry.
Israel’s former intelligence chief Aharon Haliva, in charge when the Hamas atrocities of 2023 took place, was recently recorded saying that “For every person on October 7, 50 Palestinians must die. It doesn’t matter now if they are children.” That isn’t merely vengeful and obscene, it explicitly describes a war crime.
The death toll is likely to soar again. The defence minister, Israel Katz, has authorised plans for the call up of 60,000 soldiers to seize and occupy Gaza City – forcing out hundreds of thousands of Palestinians and bringing further catastrophe to exhausted, desperate and traumatised civilians. Yet Benjamin Netanyahu has an alternative: agree to a ceasefire proposal, already accepted by Hamas, and reportedly “almost identical” to an earlier plan presented by the US special envoy, Steve Witkoff, which Israel accepted.
An embattled Mr Netanyahu believes a forever war can keep him at the top and fend off the corruption trial due to recommence imminently. But talks continue and the war faces growing opposition at home, though perversely, this could cement his reliance on his far-right coalition partners. Reports of military discontent should be regarded with caution: it has not prevented the Israel Defense Forces from drawing up and beginning to implement plans for the Gaza City offensive. But 74% of Israelis want the war to end, and there were huge protests at the weekend, mostly reflecting concern for hostages and the toll on soldiers. A survey last month found that 79% of Jewish Israelis were “not very troubled” or “not troubled at all” by reports of famine and suffering in Gaza.
Internationally, however, it is the suffering of Palestinians that fuels demands for the war to end and daily erodes Israel’s status and alliances. A survey for Reuters found that 58% of Americans now believe in the recognition of a Palestinian state, and 59% see Israeli actions in Gaza as excessive. Jordan described the Gaza City plan as “killing all prospects for peace in the Middle East”. Emmanuel Macron, the French president, warned that it would bring “true disaster”. Lashing out at critics such as Australia’s “weak” prime minister, Anthony Albanese, has merely made Mr Netanyahu look more desperate and isolated and heightened the criticism.
Palestinians in Gaza City can choose only whether to stay and face the Israeli onslaught, or attempt to flee, in their weakened state, with nowhere safe to go. But others can choose to give them a future instead of remaining complicit with these atrocities. A ceasefire is more urgent than ever. Donald Trump could call a halt to the annihilation, ending Israel’s impunity. Instead, on Wednesday, the US sanctioned more international criminal court officials over the case against the Israeli prime minister. But if Mr Trump still hopes for a broader Middle East deal, it cannot be built on the ruins of Gaza City. Other states should go beyond the important but symbolic step of recognising a Palestinian state. Much more critical is to end all arms transfers, to impose further sanctions and to leverage economic power – from ending tariff-free access to markets to suspending Israel from the Horizon Europe research scheme.
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