The last decade of annual summits held by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (Brics) has rarely merited much attention beyond their own capitals. But last week’s conference in Johannesburg, South Africa, is likely to be remembered as a turning point in modern history – with six large nations joining the current five members. A few dozen more states wish to sign up. But the club’s popularity is not a sign that an anti-western bloc is coalescing. “Brics-11” contains two US allies: Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Rather, demand for Brics membership looks more like an expression of concern at the way in which global disorder is growing.
As the world grows more fractured, developing countries are stressing self-reliance and looking for new coalitions to keep their options open. What unites the Brics-11 nations is their view of geopolitics. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the transatlantic alliance has consolidated, and Moscow and Beijing have drawn closer. Brics members see the world moving towards a cold war-type mentality between a US-led coalition of democracies and a rival grouping of autocracies. This is not something that the leaders in many middle-order countries desire. Few would welcome a situation that constrains their political and economic freedom of action, as happened during the decades of Soviet-American rivalry.
Developing countries prize the bargaining power to gain better trade, technology and weapons deals. No doubt countries such as Argentina and Iran see Brics membership as a way to access Chinese investment. The club’s original members had two things in common: they were large economies with high potential growth rates. The addition of South Africa in 2010 did suggest that the club was interested in recasting the power structures of the international system. But the US alone had the same nominal GDP as the Brics countries in 2022. Perhaps Brics’ most tangible achievement has been the New Development Bank – an institution that has approved almost $33bn of loans mainly for infrastructure projects since 2015.
Given that Brics operates on consensus, its 26-page Johannesburg declaration is a triumph of drafting rather than diplomacy. Where Brics members agree, for example on Syria and Libya, they make a collective pronouncement, and where they have diverging positions – such as on Ukraine – they do not. Getting agreement on a common currency across such a diverse grouping would dwarf the kind of problems encountered so far, rendering such an idea a pipe dream. The next big international jamboree is the annual meeting of the G20, the group that contains most of the world’s largest economies, and will be held in India in September. Just as with the Brics meeting, Russia’s Vladimir Putin will not attend the G20 summit, although he did address Brics leaders by video link.
Last year, Indonesia chaired the G20 and argued successfully that global food security was within the summit’s remit, opening the door to condemnation of Russian belligerence. Mr Putin has been described as “the apostle of payback”. By sticking to its guns, Indonesia probably waved goodbye to Brics membership this year. China and Russia are still attempting to block censure by the G20 of the Ukraine invasion. An old order is disappearing and a new one is struggling to be born. It is gut-wrenching that this process will mean Mr Putin will be able to dominate the next Brics summit – as he will be its host.
