In the end, Boris Johnson went to Scotland largely to prove that he could. Officially, the purpose of his visit on Thursday was to see how the billions of pounds the UK government has poured into the battle against Covid-19 is being spent north of the border. He went to a Covid test centre and then a vaccine distribution hub in Glasgow, followed by a visit to a vaccine factory in Livingston.
Any UK prime minister has a right, which must obviously be invoked with restraint during a pandemic, to make a working visit to any part of the country. Claims that this trip was inappropriate are wrong. But Mr Johnson’s visit was not as simple as he made out. Nor was the criticism by Nicola Sturgeon and the Scottish National party that it was not necessary.
At the start of this week, Downing Street briefed the Sun that the visit was “a rescue mission to save the UK” in the face of sustained opinion poll support for independence. It was also “a charm offensive” to a Scotland in which the prime minister’s ratings are terrible, and where many – including in his own party – see him as something of a liability. The SNP countered that Mr Johnson was “running scared”. They would have said the same if he had stayed away.
Both briefing and criticism show the constitutional argument about the future of the union pervades UK Covid politics. Mr Johnson used the cover of Covid on Thursday to make a case that the vaccine programme, the furlough support scheme and the armed services show the benefits of the union. Meanwhile, Ms Sturgeon used Covid to urge Mr Johnson to stay in London so she could present herself as the de facto head of a government of a part of Britain where Mr Johnson’s writ no longer runs.
Both are reminders that the constitutional issue is the battleground on which every political issue in Scotland will be fought for the foreseeable future. There is plenty on which the SNP government’s record is poor – schools, hospitals, drugs deaths and policing prominent among them. Opposition parties have lots to attack. But under Ms Sturgeon’s media friendly leadership, not least during the pandemic, the SNP has moved every argument on to its favoured territory.
Mr Johnson and the UK government have woken up late to the dangers. But there is a dawning realisation in Downing Street now that, in the event of a widely expected SNP victory in the 2021 Holyrood elections, it will not be sufficient to simply say no to the Scottish government’s demand for a second referendum on leaving the UK.
There will be many twists and turns before that crunch moment is reached. The elections may be delayed because of Covid. Ms Sturgeon may be damaged by the inquiry into her handling of sexual harassment charges against Alex Salmond. Plans for Holyrood to pass its own referendum bill – the so-called Indyref Plan B announced by the SNP last weekend – may be frustrated by the courts. Mr Johnson may also propose new constitutional compromises. So may Labour.
These are not just Scotland’s issues. They have an inescapable bearing on the future of the UK as a whole, of each component part of it, and on the future politics of these islands. In the past a “devolve and forget” mentality in British politics has meant they have been too easily neglected. That urgently needs to change. Mr Johnson’s visit was indeed necessary. It should be a signal for much wider engagement. The last thing Britain needs is to fall apart in a fit of absence of mind.
