The exchange of letters between Angela Rayner and Sir Keir Starmer closes one chapter and opens another. Ms Rayner accepted the verdict of the ministerial watchdog that she breached cabinet rules by failing to pay the higher rate of stamp duty on her Hove flat. Sir Keir replied with sadness that he was losing not just his deputy and housing secretary, but an emblem of social mobility. There is no rancour, only mutual recognition: Ms Rayner accepts she must go; Sir Keir concedes she remains a potent force. Her achievements went beyond policy; she spoke to voters in ways that few colleagues could. Her story had a talismanic quality – from teenage mum on a Stockport estate to trade unionist to deputy prime minister. She embodied the promise of Labour’s politics in a manner no one else could match. Yet error need not be terminal. If a minister takes the hit early and with contrition, they may be able to rebuild their career once public anger cools.
Ms Rayner’s departure is also notable for the balance of Labour and the government. Sir Keir’s reshuffle looks less like renewal than a coup by Labour’s “modernising” clique. Ian Murray’s sacking severs a bridge to Anas Sarwar’s Scottish Labour, which had been tacking leftwards, just as the Holyrood election looms, while Lucy Powell’s removal sidelines one of the few cabinet allies of Ed Miliband, the soft left’s champion. Yvette Cooper’s shift to the Foreign Office is an admission of failure over small boat crossings and leaves scant room for dissent on Gaza given her record on protest. Rebranding welfare as a growth department under Pat McFadden signals a downgrade for Liz Kendall after her Commons defeat over benefits cuts.
David Lammy’s rise to deputy prime minister leaves Labour led by two north London lawyers - a sharp contrast to Ms Rayner’s northern, working-class authenticity. Shabana Mahmood’s promotion to home secretary, Steve Reed’s elevation to housing and Peter Kyle’s move to business emphasise the influence of Sir Keir’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney. This is a cabinet that may deliver coherence, but at the cost of balance, ideological diversity and connection with the party’s broader base.
Ms Rayner’s resignation exposes a more crucial tension between the deputies that Sir Keir chooses and the one that the party elects. Darren Jones’s arrival in Downing Street as “chief secretary to the prime minister” adds to the confusion with Mr Lammy. Yet Labour’s deputy leader is not a technocratic role: it is elected by members and unions, carrying its own mandate and the power to oversee any leadership contest.
Ms Rayner’s exit sparks a battle over Labour’s future. With Reform rising, crises abroad and public trust ebbing away, the party risks looking inward rather than outwards. But an election for deputy leader will take place. Though high thresholds make a left challenger hard to field, it isn’t impossible. Ambitious “modernisers” such as the health secretary, Wes Streeting, will no doubt be weighing up the odds, but the contest risks reviving factional strife just as Labour needs unity. A new party chief whip might help. It’s hard to see a Labour MP who voted for – say – cuts to disability benefits winning. While Sir Keir works to impose his will on government, the greater danger lies in an unpopular leader’s failures becoming part of an open contest for Labour’s soul among the membership.
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