MPs will vote on Wednesday to seize control of Commons business later this month to remind the candidates for leadership of the Tory party that parliament does not want a no-deal Brexit and that it has the means to frustrate it. This is an unprecedented parliamentary swerve – an opposition day motion has never before been used to suspend Commons rules. This sensible measure is aimed at blocking Boris Johnson’s plans, a point gleefully grasped by his rival Rory Stewart. Parliament, when it chooses to exert itself, remains decisive and constitutional crises are resolved in line with a Commons majority. A prime minister who ignores this fact, like Theresa May, ends up losing control of events. Unable to command a majority, would-be prime ministers take note, a cabinet is likely to be torn apart or fall apart.
Another idea, floated by some hopefuls, is that there will be a rewrite of the Mrs May’s withdrawal agreement. This was given short shrift by Jean-Claude Juncker, the European commission president. This ought to relieve some Tories of their delusions. Yet memories appear short on the campaign trail, with candidates for the job of next Conservative prime minister falling over themselves to promise to achieve what Mrs May could not with the same parliamentary arithmetic. The cynical maxim of the frontrunners to their backbenchers is: “I am the leader – I must follow you.” The lesson they appear to have taken from the debacle of the May premiership is woe betide a Tory prime minister who fails to opt for a policy the party approves of, however untethered from reality that policy is.
One perhaps should not underestimate the Tory machine. Like an experienced boxer, the Conservative party has never been more dangerous than when it is on the ropes, apparently dazed and looking as if it was going down to a count. Yet such a revival surely depends on the qualities of leadership found in the next PM: to set the tone, fix a deliverable agenda and articulate the party’s viewpoint to maintain the illusion of unity. None of the 10 candidates so far has given outside observers any hope that they could bring together a divided Conservative party, let alone a factionalised parliament.
The Brexit treaty negotiated by Mrs May was between the United Kingdom and the European Union. One might have thought it – or something close to it – would have to be offered by her successor. If an incoming Tory prime minister opts for no deal, then parliament is likely to block it. Most MPs rightly think crashing out of the EU would be an economic disaster. They correctly foresee trouble in Northern Ireland. Politicians do not want to put the nation in a position where it has to serve up the NHS to Donald Trump because the UK has lost access to European markets and now needs access to one in the United States. The candidates all say they want to leave the EU and have thought through all this. If they have not, then given the rising chances of a general election or a second referendum, they will only be winning to lose.
