Enough of the playoff pictures and hypotheticals. Let’s get to the results.
On Saturday, the Buccaneers started the Week 18 action, beating the Panthers, 16–14. As a result, Tampa Bay and Carolina are both atop the NFC South at 8–9. The division, ironically, will come down to the other two teams, with the Falcons hosting the Saints on Sunday. If Atlanta wins, Carolina will be the NFC South champ. If New Orleans pulls the upset, it will give Tampa Bay the title.
In Saturday’s second game, the 49ers hosted the Seahawks but couldn’t earn home-field advantage, losing 13–3. With the win, Seattle not only won the NFC West title but also clinched the NFC’s top seed. As for San Francisco, it will be the fifth seed if the Rams lose to the Cardinals on Sunday, or a sixth seed if Los Angeles wins.
On Sunday, the big game is in prime time with the preeminent AFC North rivalry. It’ll be John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin, Lamar Jackson and Aaron Rodgers, and the Ravens and Steelers at Acrisure Stadium for the division title and the AFC’s fourth seed, while the loser will be eliminated.
But we start with Tampa Bay and Carolina, playing through the rain to earn a playoff spot.
Good: Seattle’s defense is good enough to win the Super Bowl
Plenty of ink has been spilled about the terrific defenses in Houston and Denver. While all those compliments are well-earned, don’t forget about the unit in Seattle.
Coming into Saturday night, the Seahawks’ defense ranked first in both yards per pass attempt (6.1) and yards per rush (3.7).
That balanced excellence was on full display in the battle for the NFC West against the 49ers. San Francisco couldn’t do anything on the ground or in the air, averaging 4.1 yards per play. Christian McCaffrey was bottled up with few holes to exploit, gaining 23 yards on eight carries (2.9 YPC). Brock Purdy also struggled against Mike Macdonald’s defense, facing a ferocious rush and a lockdown secondary. All told, Purdy was 19-of-27 for a meager 127 yards with an interception.
Now with home-field advantage, the Seahawks have the inside track to Super Bowl LX. They have to win two games at Lumen Field, one of the loudest buildings in the league, to get there. And while concerns remain about Sam Darnold in big games, there’s no reason to doubt the other side of the ball, a group good enough to win it all.
Bad: The 49ers trying to stop the run regardless of the back
Going into the game, the overwhelming thought was that San Francisco would do everything to stop the backfield tandem of Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet, putting the game in Darnold’s hands.
Instead, Walker and Charbonnet churned up both yards and the clock while Darnold benefitted from play-action passes and a clean pocket. The aforementioned duo totaled 171 yards on 5.1 YPC, with Walker gaining 97 rushing yards and Charbonnet posting 74 yards, including a 27-yard touchdown to give Seattle a first-quarter lead it never relinquished.
For the 49ers, it was a crushing way to lose. San Francisco was bullied all over the field in its own building. With the front seven attempting to hold up without All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner and star edge rusher Nick Bosa, coordinator Robert Saleh finally saw a challenge he had no answer for.
Going into the postseason, there’s a good chance the 49ers will be the No. 6 seed (the Rams need to beat the lowly Cardinals for that to happen) and heading off to play either the Bears or Eagles. Either way, they’ll need to be much better against the run.
Ugly: A lack of perimeter playmakers is catching up with the 49ers
San Francisco has one of the league’s most dynamic players in McCaffrey, who entered Week 18 trailing only Bijan Robinson in yards from scrimmage. It also has George Kittle, a future Hall of Fame tight end.
Unfortunately for the 49ers, they don’t have a wide receiver capable of consistently making plays. With second-year man Ricky Pearsall inactive against the Seahawks and Brandon Aiyuk on injured reserve (and no longer around the team), San Francisco couldn’t threaten against a secondary, including star corner Devon Witherspoon and rookie standout Nick Emmanwori. Overall, the receivers managed only seven receptions for 59 yards.
Going into the playoffs, it’s going to be a major concern any time McCaffrey and Kittle are bottled up (they had 86 total yards against Seattle). Purdy will need to extend plays and create off-schedule with a group of wideouts who struggle to generate explosive gains, having only 30 across 17 weeks.
Good: Tampa Bay giving itself a chance of avoiding total embarrassment
The Buccaneers looked like a contender at 3–0 to start the year, with Baker Mayfield getting some early-season MVP talk.
Then things fell apart. Tampa Bay lost nine of its next 13 games, including seven of eight down the stretch. With a loss on Saturday in their rain-soaked home stadium, the Buccaneers would have been eliminated from postseason contention while questions would have rained down on whether coach Todd Bowles and general manager Jason Licht deserved to return for 2026.
With the 16–14 victory, Tampa Bay isn’t out of trouble. The Buccaneers still need the Saints to beat the Falcons in Atlanta, which wouldn’t qualify as a massive upset but more a mild surprise. If Tampa Bay makes the playoffs, the season is still underwhelming based on preseason expectations (yours truly picked the Bucs to reach the NFC title game) but at least Tampa Bay would be the division champion for a fifth consecutive season.
Ultimately, Tampa Bay should be embarrassed by how the last two-thirds of this season has gone, even with injuries to receivers Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan, running back Bucky Irving and others throughout the year. But the Week 18 win shows some gumption for a team that appeared comatose last weekend in a loss to the Quinn Ewers–led Dolphins.
Bad: Carolina’s run game abandoned it at the wrong time
The Panthers entered the weekend having rushed for 1,958 yards, 11th most in the league. The ground attack has been buoyed by Rico Dowdle, a soon-to-be free agent on a one-year deal who rushed for 1,066 yards on 4.7 yards per attempt.
But on Saturday, with a playoff berth and division title on the line, the Panthers couldn’t find a yard. Dowdle carried seven times for 10 yards while Chuba Hubbard matched him on five attempts. All told, Carolina rushed for 19 yards on 14 attempts while facing the 21st-ranked defense in yards per carry at 4.4.
If the Panthers end up in the playoffs, they need to run the ball for any chance of advancement. Carolina can’t rely on Bryce Young, who for the year has thrown for 3,007 yards in 16 games. No quarterback has thrown for less when playing in at least 15 contests.
Give the Panthers credit for finding ways to win all year with a passing game limited to short throws, as Young entered Saturday night with only 33 passes of more than 20 air yards in 2025. But if they play next weekend, their only chance of success will be on the ground.
Ugly: The NFC South over the past four seasons
It’s been a while since the NFC South produced a team anybody wanted to watch, or thought could win the Super Bowl, come January.
The Buccaneers won their second Super Bowl to cap the 2020 season, with Tom Brady beating Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, 31–9. The following year, Tampa Bay went 13–4 and lost to the eventual champion Rams in the divisional round.
Since then, it’s been a lousy division with largely lousy results.
Over the past four years, including Saturday’s results, here are the regular-season records of the four NFC South teams:
Buccaneers: 35–33
Saints: 27–40
Falcons: 29–38
Panthers: 22–46
It’s been bad football, producing only a single playoff victory, coming when Tampa Bay defeated the Eagles in the 2023 wild-card weekend, the season Philadelphia collapsed down the stretch in between Super Bowl appearances. The Buccaneers are the only NFC South team to make the playoffs over the past four seasons (it will be five if Atlanta loses on Sunday), doing so as the No. 4 seed in three of those campaigns.
More NFL on Sports Illustrated
- Broncos vs. Chargers: Three Bold Predictions for AFC West Bout With No. 1 Seed on Line
- Seahawks, 49ers GMs Both Had On-Camera Moments They'd Like to Forget Thanks to ESPN
- Baker Mayfield Will Reluctantly Put Saints Hate Aside With NFC South Title at Stake
- Jameis Winston Hilariously Explains How to Properly ‘Eat a W’ on ESPN’s ‘ManningCast’
- Dave Canales Refuses to Blame Panthers' Loss to Buccaneers on Poor Officiating
This article was originally published on www.si.com as The Good, Bad and Ugly, Week 18: Seahawks Lock Down No. 1 Seed, Bucs Stay Alive.
