Vic Beasley must get pressure
In the AFC championship game, the Pittsburgh Steelers used a passive game plan to try to contain Tom Brady. They regularly rushed only three players after the quarterback, while dropping eight into coverage. It was a game plan that failed. It’s a game plan that has always failed for the Steelers against Brady. If the Atlanta Falcons are to contain the New England Patriots’ offense, they will need to be more aggressive, like the Houston Texans were in the previous matchup. The Texans forced Brady into multiple interceptions and had him complete fewer than 50% of his passes. They did that by playing aggressive coverage on the outside, freeing up more defenders to crowd the middle of the field or target Brady in the pocket.
Jadeveon Clowney’s ability to win one-on-one from different spots on the field made him a key player for the Texans’ defense. In Vic Beasley, the Falcons have their own star pass rusher who will be expected to create the majority of the pressure.
Beasley didn’t have a sack in either of the Falcons’ first two playoff games. He did have 15.5 sacks and six forced fumbles during the regular season, though. The Falcons only had 34 sacks in total, despite Beasley’s 15.5 leading the whole league. Beasley is a different type of rusher to Clowney. Clowney struggles to beat offensive tackles around the edge, but can line up inside or maul past their inside shoulders. Beasley is a speed rusher. He will line up on both sides of the defensive line and explode off the line of scrimmage to bend the edge and get to the quarterback. How Nate Solder and Marcus Cannon handle his speed will be crucial for the Patriots’ offense.
It was just 12 months ago when another edge rusher became Super Bowl MVP.
Can the Patriots cover Tevin Coleman?
Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman established themselves as the league’s best backfield in the NFL this year. Freeman is the team’s primary runner. He carried the ball 227 times for 1,079 yards and 11 touchdowns during the regular season. He is also one of the best pass-blocking backs in the NFL as well as one of the better receiving backs. Coleman’s rushing stats from the regular season were almost as impressive as Freeman’s, he carried the ball 118 times for 520 yards and eight touchdowns, but his true value comes as a receiver.
Coleman is a mismatch receiver against linebackers and safeties. He isn’t a Darren Sproles-type of running back – Sproles is a shorter, more agile back who can run precise routes and turn away from defenders in tight spaces. Coleman is a more linear athlete but an extremely explosive one. During the regular season he caught 31 passes for 421 yards and three touchdowns. Among running backs with at least 20 receptions this year, Coleman’s 13.58 yards per attempt ranks first in the league. In the playoffs so far, he has six receptions for 57 yards and a touchdown.
Matching up to a back of Coleman’s caliber was once a job for Jamie Collins. Collins is widely regarded as one of the best inside linebackers in the NFL because of his comfort working in space. Yet Bill Belichick inexplicably decided to trade Collins away during the regular season. He has so far effectively made use of Kyle Van Noy, Shea McClellin and Elandon Roberts alongside Dont’a Hightower. Despite being the most reputable player of the group, Hightower is a run-stopping back who can’t be used in coverage against Coleman.
If Shanahan can isolate Coleman against one of those linebackers as the Patriots focus on Julio Jones, he should have huge success. In one of the Patriots’ few losses this season, the Seattle Seahawks had great success isolating CJ Prosise against a linebacker.
Winning on first downs
The New England Patriots had an average defense during the regular season, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. DVOA measures efficiency on a snap-by-snap basis: therefore, if you gain nine yards on third-and-20 it’s not valued as much as gaining nine yards on first-and-10. While the Patriots defense was average overall, it was a top-five unit against the run. On first downs, the Patriots gave up just 3.8 yards per play (10th best) and allowed a first down on just 8.5% of those plays (first). On the other hand, the Atlanta Falcons had a top-10 running game on offense by DVOA while averaging 5.2 yards per play on first down (second) and gaining first downs on 20.4 percent of those plays (second).
It’s not just that the Falcons are an extremely effective running team, it’s that their whole offense is built around their ability to run the ball. Matt Ryan spends as much time under center as any other quarterback because he can execute harder play fakes from there before escaping out of the pocket to throw downfield. It’s been impossible for defenses to stack the box and fully focus on stopping the run, because of the deception that comes with those plays – but also how aggressive the offense pursues big plays off those fakes to punish you. Julio Jones (17.0), Taylor Gabriel (16.5), Aldrick Robinson (16.1) and Levine Toilolo (20.3) all average more than 16 yards per reception because of Shanahan’s willingness to be aggressive with his route combinations. It’s not a coincidence that the Falcons comfortably led the league in 20+ yard passing plays on first downs this year.
To contain Devonta Freeman without exposing yourself on the back end, the Patriots will need their defensive line to show great discipline. The Falcons will vary their play calls in the running game, but primarily rely on zone runs. Zone runs essentially ask the offensive line to create a wall of bodies that moves laterally. Linemen don’t block specific defenders, they account for specific spaces and react based on what the defense does. That means if you penetrate upfield as a defender, you risk creating a running lane for the running back. However, if you don’t penetrate and flow too far with the offensive line, you risk being pushed out of the play as the running back cuts back against the grain of his blocking.
Styles make fights
Dan Quinn has done a brilliant job with the Atlanta Falcons’ defense. Objectively, the Falcons’ defense is bad. It ranked 27th in the NFL in points allowed during the regular season and 25th in yards allowed. Advanced metrics aren’t any more complimentary, Football Outsiders ranked the Falcons as the 27th-best defense during the regular season with the 29th-best run defense. What needs to be noted is that the Falcons defense is relying on mostly young players, many rookies, and lost its best player to injury midway through the season. More importantly, the unit has played better in both playoff games than it did during the regular season.
The common theme in those two games was the effectiveness of the Falcons’ offense. Kyle Shanahan’s unit set a pace that forced both of their opponents to become more pass heavy. Obviously the Patriots will have no issue asking Tom Brady to throw the ball 50+ times, and obviously the Falcons won’t feel good about that prospect, but stylistically the Falcons are better suited to battle the Patriots’ passing game than they are the running game.
LeGarrette Blount has had an outstanding season. Blount rushed 299 times for 1,161 yards and 18 touchdowns during the regular season. Blount is a bruising back. He is officially listed at 6ft and 250lbs. He is the exact opposite type of back that the Falcons would prefer to face. The Falcons front seven was built to be fast. They don’t have a space-eating nose tackle on the level of a Vince Wilfork and their linebackers – Deion Jones and De’Vondre Campbell – are better in space than they are taking on blockers. If the Patriots go to a heavy package and rely on Blount as a power runner, the Falcons defenders will be asked to execute assignments that they are not naturally built to execute.
Containing … Chris Hogan?
During his three years with the Buffalo Bills, Chris Hogan never averaged more than 12.5 yards per reception. With the Patriots this year, Hogan averaged 17.9 yards on 38 receptions during the regular season. He only caught 38 passes as he was assimilated into Josh McDaniels’ ever-changing offense. The Patriots don’t force the ball to anyone, so it’s hard to know who is going to have a big game on any given day. You’re just as likely to catch zero passes for zero yards as you are to catch 12 for 200. In the game against the Steelers, Hogan caught nine passes for 180 yards and two touchdowns. He mimicked Julio Jones’ stat line in the NFC championship game.
Whether Hogan puts up big numbers or not will depend heavily on the game plans of both the Falcons and the Patriots. If the Patriots choose to incorporate heavier looks, Hogan’s chances of catching passes becomes greater, because he is more of a vertical threat than Julian Edelman or Danny Amendola. If the Patriots spread the field and the Falcons aren’t aggressive in going after the quarterback, Hogan will still be involved, but the ball will be more likely to find Edelman, Bennett or even Dion Lewis coming out of the backfield.
The Falcons don’t have their top cornerback. Desmond Trufant is the franchise’s best defensive player but he landed on IR earlier in the year. Trufant wasn’t likely to follow anyone in this game, but it does significantly hurt their coverages.
Philosophically, Quinn wants to run a cover-3 heavy defense. Cover-3 is a zone-based defense where the cornerbacks on either side of the field split the coverage into thirds with one of the safeties. The other safety drops into coverage underneath, so defense has four players spread across the field with four rushing the passer. It’s a coverage that requires outstanding execution to function. because offenses are fully aware of the soft spots. Typically, teams will try to attack the seams or push the ball to the flat if the seams are taken away. Tom Brady won his last Super Bowl by carving up the Seattle Seahawks’ cover-3.
Brady took advantage of the Seahawks’ lankier cornerbacks with quicker, shorter throws to his shiftier receivers in that game. The Falcons don’t have the same types of players outside, so Brady could have more success working the seams with Hogan. The duo combined for a touchdown on a seam pass against the Steelers. Although that wasn’t against a cover-3 call, you did see Brady move one of the deep safeties with his eyes to create space for his receiver. Something that will be key when attacking the Falcons’ coverages.
